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Winter climate change has the potential to have a large impact on coastal wetlands in the southeastern U.S. Warmer winter temperatures and reductions in the intensity of freeze events would likely lead to mangrove forest range expansion and salt marsh displacement in parts of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coast. The objective of this research was to better understand some of the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The potential ecological effects of mangrove migration are diverse ranging from important biotic impacts (e.g., coastal fisheries, land bird migration; colonial nesting wading birds) to ecosystem stability (e.g., response to sea level rise and drought;...
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Ken Ferschweiler (CBI) used climate data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, Oregon State University) at 4kmx4km spatial grain across the conterminous USA to generate a climatology or baseline. He then created future climate change scenarios using statistical downscaling and created anomalies from the Hadley CM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) run through the A2 emission scenario (SRES - special report on emission scenarios published in 2000). To run the MAPSS model (Neilson 1995), average monthly precipitation values were calculated for the period 2045-2060. This dataset shows the standard deviation of the annual precipitation for that period.
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This dataset corresponds to statistically downscaled and reprojected GCM-driven RegCM3 (regional climate model) future projections. Data were bias corrected using the delta/anomaly method whereby the difference between future and historical projections from RegCM3 were calculated, reprojected and downscaled using linear interpolation to then modify a PRISM model generated historical baseline (1968-1999).
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This dataset represents the difference between future and historic maximum temperatures under the CSIRO A2 future climate scenario.
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This dataset was created from data provided by the USDA Forest Service MAPSS team at the Pacific Northwest Research Station. The National Center for Conservation Science and Policy calculated the mean value for the 2035-2045 period and clipped the file to the region surrounding San luis Obispo County, California. The data are the projected change in mean temperatures for August produced by the CSIRO model at 0.8 degree resolution (approximately 8 km). Units are degrees Celsius.
This dataset consists of the current distribution (2000s) of mangrove forests in the southeastern U.S. This dataset was created from the current best available mangrove data on a state specific basis. Florida mangrove data was extracted from Florida Landuse Land Cover Classification System (FLUCCS). For Louisiana, we used observations of mangrove stands from aerial surveys by Michot et al. (2010). Mangrove presence in Texas came from maps produced by Sherrod & McMillan (1981) and the NOAA Benthic Habitat Atlas of Coastal Texas (Finkbeiner et al. 2009). Please note that this map depicts the distribution of mangrove forests and not mangrove individuals. More detailed information on this dataset is available in Osland...
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Climate data (NCEP: Average Annual Temperature, 1968-1999) have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET web site (http://users.ictp.it/RegCNET/model.html), and the ICTP RegCM publications...
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This dataset depicts the Difference for Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep for 2045-2060 compared to 1968-1999 for GFDL. These data have been generated using a regional climate model called RegCM3 using boundary conditions from observations or general circulation models for historical conditions, and from GCM projections for future conditions. Regional climate model description: RegCM3 is the third generation of the Regional Climate Model originally developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Details on current model components and applications of the model can be found in numerous publications (e.g., Giorgi et al, 2004a,b, Pal et al, 2007), the ICTP RegCNET...
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This dataset is a Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the GFDL A2 Scenario for average Spring (March, April, May) snowpack change, 2010-2039, clipped to the Sierra Nevada Zone for CA LCC. Snowpack: Amount of snow accumulated per month summed annually, or if divided by 12 average monthly snowpack. This is calculated as prior month's snowpack plus snowfall minus sublimation and snow melt.Snowpack change was calculated using GFDL A2 scenario 2010-2039 minus Historic Snowpack 1971-2000. The California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate dataset provides historical and projected climate surfaces for the state at a 270 meter resolution. The historical data is based on 4 kilometer PRISM data, and the...
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This dataset is a Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the GFDL A2 Scenario calculated to represent percentage of annual precipitation received during summer months (June, July, August and September), 2040-2069, clipped to the DRECP 12 km buffered boundary.Total Precipitation:Â Total monthly precipitation (rain or snow), also summed by water year. Averaged over 30 year ranges.Calculation of Percentage: Summer Months Precipitation (June, July, August, September)/Annual Precipitation. The California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate dataset provides historical and projected climate surfaces for the state at a 270 meter resolution. The historical data is based on 4 kilometer PRISM data, and the...
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This dataset is a Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the GFDL A2 Scenario for annual Minimum Temperature, 2070-2099, clipped to the DRECP 12 km buffered boundary.Minimum Temperature:Â The modeled daily maximum and minimum are averaged to give daily average; the minimum daily average in a calendar month becomes the monthly minimum; this is averaged over a 30 year period to determine TMin for each month of the year, and for the water year. The California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate dataset provides historical and projected climate surfaces for the state at a 270 meter resolution. The historical data is based on 4 kilometer PRISM data, and the projected climate surfaces are based on the...
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This dataset represents Recharge change, from Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the PCM A2 Scenario in southern California, for 2070-2099. The data was processed using historic Recharge (1979-2000) and PCM A2 Scenario Recharge (2070-2099) to calculate change. Recharge: Amount of water exceeding field capacity that enters bedrock, occurs at a rate determined by the hydraulic conductivity of the underlying materials, excess water (rejected recharge) is added to runoff. The California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate dataset provides historical and projected climate surfaces for the state at a 270 meter resolution. The historical data is based on 4 kilometer PRISM data, and the projected...
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This dataset is a Basin Characterization Model (BCM) output using the PCM A2 Scenario for annual runoff, 2040-2069, clipped to the DRECP 12 km buffered boundary. Runoff: Amount of water that becomes stream flow, summed annually. Modeled as amount of water that exceeds total soil storage and rejected recharge. The California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate dataset provides historical and projected climate surfaces for the state at a 270 meter resolution. The historical data is based on 4 kilometer PRISM data, and the projected climate surfaces are based on the A2 and B1 scenarios of the PCM and GFDL GCMs. The BCM approach uses a regional water balance model based on high resolution downscaled precipitation...
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This dataset is historic annual runoff, for 1971-2000, clipped to the DRECP 12 km buffered boundary from the California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) Runoff: Amount of water that becomes stream flow, summed annually. Modeled as amount of water that exceeds total soil storage and rejected recharge. The California Basin Characterization Model (BCM) climate dataset provides historical and projected climate surfaces for the state at a 270 meter resolution. The historical data is based on 4 kilometer PRISM data, and the projected climate surfaces are based on the A2 and B1 scenarios of the PCM and GFDL GCMs. The BCM approach uses a regional water balance model based on high resolution downscaled precipitation...
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This dataset represents the soil temperature regimes from SSURGO and STATSGO soil descriptions for soil map units in the state of southern Alaska (b) that lie within the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative. Definition.—“Soil temperature” is the mean monthly soil temperature at the specified depth (the average of the daily high and daily low temperature for the month). Significance.—Soil temperature is important to many biological and physical processes that occur in the soil. Plant germination and growth are closely related to soil temperature. Cold soil temperatures effectively create a thermal pan in the soil. Roots cannot uptake moisture or nutrients below the threshold temperatures specific to...
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NARCCAP: http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/ The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that will serve the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. NARCCAP is systematically investigating the uncertainties in future climate projections on the regional level. NARCCAP closely matches the regional climate models (RCMs) with multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) along with the A2 scenario from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) over an area covering most of North America. NARCCAP also validates the regional climate model performance by driving the RCMs with reanalyses, which is similar to driving...


map background search result map search result map 4KM Original: Average Summer Temperature (1968-1999) from NCEP-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) GFDL A2 Scenario Average Spring Snowpack Change, Sierra Nevada, 2010-2039 GFDL A2 Scenario Percentage of Annual Precipitation Received During the Summer Months- DRECP, 2040-2069 GFDL A2 Scenario Annual Minimum Temperature - DRECP, 2070-2099 PCM A2 Recharge Change, Southern California, 2070-2099 PCM A2 Scenario Annual Runoff, DRECP, 2040-2069 Historic Annual Runoff, DRECP, 1971-2000 Soil temperature regime for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative - southern Alaska (b), USA Monthly Average Minimum Daily Temperature (1970-2000) from CGCM3-driven CRCM Standard Deviation of Annual Precipitation (2045-2060) from HadCM3 GCM under A2 scenario (Western USA) 4KM Results: Bias-corrected Average Annual Temperature (2045- 2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) Calculated difference between simulated minimum temperatures for 2071 to 2100 under MIROC A2 climate scenario for the eastern Oregon study area, USA Average value of daily maximum temperatures (2071 to 2100) under MIROC A2 future climate scenario for the eastern Oregon study area USA Change in Average August Temperature CSIRO 2035-2045 New porewater data collection: subplot-level physicochemical Calculated difference between simulated minimum temperatures for 2071 to 2100 under MIROC A2 climate scenario for the eastern Oregon study area, USA Average value of daily maximum temperatures (2071 to 2100) under MIROC A2 future climate scenario for the eastern Oregon study area USA Change in Average August Temperature CSIRO 2035-2045 New porewater data collection: subplot-level physicochemical PCM A2 Scenario Annual Runoff, DRECP, 2040-2069 Historic Annual Runoff, DRECP, 1971-2000 GFDL A2 Scenario Percentage of Annual Precipitation Received During the Summer Months- DRECP, 2040-2069 GFDL A2 Scenario Annual Minimum Temperature - DRECP, 2070-2099 GFDL A2 Scenario Average Spring Snowpack Change, Sierra Nevada, 2010-2039 Soil temperature regime for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative - southern Alaska (b), USA PCM A2 Recharge Change, Southern California, 2070-2099 Standard Deviation of Annual Precipitation (2045-2060) from HadCM3 GCM under A2 scenario (Western USA) 4KM Results: Bias-corrected Average Annual Temperature (2045- 2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Original: Average Summer Temperature (1968-1999) from NCEP-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) 4KM Difference: Average Summer Temperature for Jul-Sep (2045-2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) Monthly Average Minimum Daily Temperature (1970-2000) from CGCM3-driven CRCM