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The Chernobyl accident was a major economic loss with a cost of about $12.5 billion U.S. dollars to the government of the Soviet Union. However, in terms of human loss it was less than a major accident. The economic costs in countries other than the Soviet Union were caused by reasons other than established radiation protection principles. The lack of preparedness of most countires was demonstrated by exaggerated reporting by the news media and by the confused actions of governments.
This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns, drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment of energy system dynamics in the scenario analysis on climate mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic implications for clean energy and technology innovation policy.
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