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Accurate prediction of available water supply from snowmelt is needed if the myriad of human, environmental, agricultural, and industrial demands for water are to be satisfied, especially given legislatively imposed conditions on its allocation. Robust retrievals of hydrologic basin model variables (e.g., insolation or areal extent of snow cover) provide several advantages over the current operational use of either point measurements or parameterizations to help to meet this requirement. Insolation can be provided at hourly time scales (or better if needed during rapid melt events associated with flooding) and at 1-km spatial resolution. These satellite-based retrievals incorporate the effects of highly variable...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Weather and Forecasting
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Models that predict the flow of rivers and streams are critically important for planning flood control, hydropower, and reservoir operations, as well as for management of fish and wildlife populations. As temperatures and precipitation regimes change globally, the need to improve and develop these models for a wider spatial coverage and higher spatial fidelity becomes more imperative. Currently, one of the biggest impediments to developing robust streamflow knowledge is incomplete understanding of the range of timescales over which water is stored (e.g., in snowpack, soils, and groundwater) in watersheds, as well as the processes and factors that control those storage timescales. This working group will address...
The influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on important hydroclimatic variables during years of neutral ENSO for 84 climate divisions in the western United States is analyzed from 1925 to 1998. When the 34 neutral ENSO years are split by cold (12 yr) and warm (22 yr) PDOs, the resulting winter precipitation patterns are spatially similar to those that occur during years of La Ni�a?cold PDO and, to a lesser extent, years of El Ni�o?warm PDO, respectively, although the characteristic ENSO dipole is not evident. The PDO influence is similar when the winter Palmer drought severity index is analyzed, although the core area of influence moves from the Southwest to the northern Rockies. Correlations between...
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The number of tornadoes reported in the United States is believed to be less than the actual incidence of tornadoes, especially prior to the 1990s, because tornadoes may be undetectable by human witnesses in sparsely populated areas and areas in which obstructions limit the line of sight. A hierarchical Bayesian model is used to simultaneously correct for population-based sampling bias and estimate tornado density using historical tornado report data. The expected result is that F2-F5 compared with F0-F1 tornado reports would vary less with population density. The results agree with this hypothesis for the following population centers: Atlanta, Georgia; Champaign, Illinois; and Des Moines, Iowa. However, the results...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Weather and Forecasting