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Interactions between climate change and non-native invasive species may combine to increase invasion risk to native ecosystems. Changing climate creates risk as new terrain becomes climatically suitable for invasion. However, climate change may also create opportunities for ecosystem restoration on invaded lands that become climatically unsuitable for invasive species. Here, I develop a bioclimatic envelope model for cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), a non-native invasive grass in the western US, based on its invaded distribution. The bioclimatic envelope model is based on the Mahalanobis distance using the climate variables that best constrain the species distribution. Of the precipitation and temperature variables...
Rather than simply enhancing invasion risk, climate change may also reduce invasive plant competitiveness if conditions become climatically unsuitable. Using bioclimatic envelope modeling, we show that climate change could result in both range expansion and contraction for five widespread and dominant invasive plants in the western United States. Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solstitialis) and tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) are likely to expand with climate change. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and spotted knapweed (Centaurea biebersteinii) are likely to shift in range, leading to both expansion and contraction. Leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) is likely to contract. The retreat of once-intractable invasive species could...
Most ecologists believe that climate change poses a significant threat to the persistence of native species. However, in some areas climate change may reduce or eliminate non-native invasive species, creating opportunities for restoration. If invasive species are no longer suited to novel climate conditions, the native communities that they replaced may not be viable either. If neither invasive nor native species are climatically viable, a type of “transformative� restoration will be required, involving the translocation of novel species that can survive and reproduce under new climate conditions. Here, we illustrate one approach for restoration planning by using bioclimatic envelope modeling to identify restoration...