Skip to main content
USGS - science for a changing world
Advanced Search

Filters: Tags: climate change (X)

4,963 results (18ms)   

Filters
Date Range
Extensions
Types
Contacts
Categories
Tag Types
Tag Schemes
View Results as: JSON ATOM CSV
thumbnail
We will develop a set of linked models to help predict the effects of climate change on rivers and endangered species. These will include watershed- and reach-scale models to predict streamflow, water temperatures, and other fish habitat metrics under various climatic scenarios for the reaches used by species listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), plus a combined bioenergetics and life-cycle model (to be done by the U.S. Geological Survey [USGS]) to assess the impact of these factors on fish growth, reproduction, and survival. We propose to test the model framework at a site on the Methow River, Washington, to explore additional opportunities for collaboration and model development.
thumbnail
Assessing the impact of flow alteration on aquatic ecosystems has been identified as a critical area of research nationally and in the Southeast U.S. This project aimed to address the Ecohydrology Priority Science Need of the SE CSC FY2012 Annual Science Work Plan by developing an inventory and evaluation of current efforts and knowledge gaps in hydrological modeling for flow-­â€ecology science in global change impact studies across the Southeast. To accomplish this goal, we completed a thorough synthesis and evaluation of hydrologic modeling efforts in the Southeast region (including all states of the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (SEAFWA) including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,...
thumbnail
This data set provides the abiotic water balance variables used for species distribution modelings for Pinus albicaulis within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
thumbnail
The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), as part of the work of the Interagency Land Management Adaptation Group (ILMAG), initiated a project in 2013 to develop plans for a searchable, public registry on climate change vulnerability assessments. Member agencies from the USGCRP Adaptation Science Work Group, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA), and several NGO’s also contributed. Vulnerability assessments are important for identifying resources that are most likely to be affected by climate change and providing insights on why certain resources are vulnerable. Consequently, they provide valuable information for informing climate change adaptation planning. CRAVe allows...
thumbnail
The integrity of Amazon forests are currently threatened by climate change, deforestation, and fire. However, it is unclear how these agents of change interact over large spatial and temporal domains and reducing this uncertainty is important for projecting changes in carbon stocks and species biogeography, and could better inform continental scale conservation programs. With this in mind, aboveground biomass and tree cover data were produced using the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL, with 9 different global climate models (using the SRES A2 emissions storyline) and 2 different deforestation scenarios (from Soares et al.). The existing fire module was modified to include 'escaped fire' associated with deforestation,...
thumbnail
This dataset portrays the viability score (scale of 0 - 1.0) for White fir (Abies concolor) in western North America in 2030, using the Canadian Center of Climate Modeling and Analysis (CGCM3) general circulation model (GCM) and A2 emission scenario (high emissions, regionally diverse world, rapid growth) to model future climate. (From Crookston et al. 2010): To develop the climate profile, we used a data from permanent sample plots largely from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA, Bechtold and Patterson, 2005) but supplemented with research plot data to provide about 117,000 observations (see Rehfeldt et al., 2006, 2009) describing the presence and absence of numerous species. The Random Forests classification...
thumbnail
The integrity of Amazon forests are currently threatened by climate change, deforestation, and fire. However, it is unclear how these agents of change interact over large spatial and temporal domains and reducing this uncertainty is important for projecting changes in carbon stocks and species biogeography, and could better inform continental scale conservation programs. With this in mind, aboveground biomass and tree cover data were produced using the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL, with 9 different global climate models (using the SRES A2 emissions storyline) and 2 different deforestation scenarios (from Soares et al.). The existing fire module was modified to include 'escaped fire' associated with deforestation,...
thumbnail
This dataset represents actual and predicted suitable habitat for Quercus durandii (Durand oak, species code 808) in the Eastern United States as measured by importance value based on data obtained from the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) project, current climate conditions, and future climate projections. This summary unit of this dataset is a 20 by 20 kilometer cell. The actual importance value (IV) was calculated based on the number of stems and basal area of a given tree species relative to other tree species on a plot using about 100,000 FIA plots (representing nearly 3 million tree records) in the 37 states within the United States east of the 100th meridian. These importance values were summarized to...
thumbnail
This dataset portrays the viability score (scale of 0 - 1.0) for White fir (Abies concolor) in western North America in 2060, using the Canadian Center of Climate Modeling and Analysis (CGCM3) general circulation model (GCM) and A2 emission scenario (high emissions, regionally diverse world, rapid growth) to model future climate. (From Crookston et al. 2010): To develop the climate profile, we used a data from permanent sample plots largely from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA, Bechtold and Patterson, 2005) but supplemented with research plot data to provide about 117,000 observations (see Rehfeldt et al., 2006, 2009) describing the presence and absence of numerous species. The Random Forests classification...
thumbnail
In order to predict the impacts of climate change induced sea-level rise on Pacific Northwest coastal habitats, the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was utilized to simulate future coastal habitat configurations under various sea-level rise scenarios. The model was run for 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100. Historical or "initial condition" habitat classifications are also available for some sites. The sea-level rise scenarios include: 1. A1B greenhouse gas emission mean : 0.39 meter rise by 2100 2. A1B greenhouse gas emission maximum : 0.69 meter rise by 2100 3. 1 meter rise by 2100 4. 1.5 meter rise by 2100 5. 2 meter rise by 2100 Due to differing site conditions, local sea-level rise varies slightly from...
Reducing coral reef vulnerability to climate change requires that managers understand and support the natural resilience of coral reefs. We define coral reef resilience as: the capacity of a reef to resist and/or recover from disturbance given its probable exposure regime, and maintain provision of ecosystem goods and services. Spatial variation in exposure to disturbance and the resilience of reefs in the face of those disturbances will determine the fate of coral reefs within management jurisdictions. This project sought to: (1) undertake ecological resilience assessments in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), which is in the west Pacific near Guam, and (2) collaboratively develop a decision-support...
This recorded presentation is from the April 17, 2014 workshop for the "Integrated Scenarios of the Future Northwest Environment" project. The recording is available on YouTube. The Integrated Scenarios project is an effort to understand and predict the effects of climate change on the Northwest's climate, hydrology, and vegetation. The project was funded by the Northwest Climate Science Center and the Climate Impacts Research Consortium.
thumbnail
This dataset represents the average amount of Growing Degree Days (GDD) per year within each HUC5 watershed, simulated by the model MC1 for the 30-year period 1971-2000. Growing degree days (referenced to 0oC) (unit = deg C days) were determined for each HUC5 watershed. Watersheds represent 5th level (HUC5, 10-digit) hydrologic unit boundaries. They were acquired from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Background: The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 (see Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts for OR, WA, AZ and NM, for a project funded by the USDA Forest Service (PNW 09-JV-11261900-003). The MC1 model...
thumbnail
This package contains 13 polygon layers representing baseline and predicted future climate niches (2050s & 2080s) of Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina). The modeling algorithm Maxent and the Worldclim predictor set have been used to compute niche projections under two emission scenarios (A1B & A2A) based on three general circulation models (CSIRO, CCCMA & HADCM3). The shapefiles are derived from gridded model outputs with a grid cell resolution of 30 arc-seconds.
thumbnail
Ken Ferschweiler (CBI) used climate data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, Oregon State University) at 4kmx4km spatial grain across the conterminous USA to generate a climatology or baseline. He then created future climate change scenarios using statistical downscaling and created anomalies from the Hadley CM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) run through the A2 emission scenario (SRES - special report on emission scenarios published in 2000). To run the MAPSS model (Neilson 1995), average monthly precipitation values were calculated for the period 2045-2060. This dataset shows the standard deviation of the annual precipitation for that period.
thumbnail
This dataset corresponds to statistically downscaled and reprojected GCM-driven RegCM3 (regional climate model) future projections. Data were bias corrected using the delta/anomaly method whereby the difference between future and historical projections from RegCM3 were calculated, reprojected and downscaled using linear interpolation to then modify a PRISM model generated historical baseline (1968-1999).
thumbnail
This dataset shows the locations of forest dieback documented in the 2010 paper: Allen , C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N, Vennetier, M , Kitzberger, T, Rigling, A, Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E.H., Gonzalez, P., Fensham, R., Zhang, Z. , Castro, J, Demidova, N., Lim, J. H., Allard, G., Running, S. W., Semerci, A., Cobb, N. 2010. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecology and Management 259(4): 660-684
thumbnail
The polygon represents the extent of inundation due to Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) under current conditions (year 2000) based on NOAA tide stations tide elevation data.
thumbnail
Grid reflects the estimated frequency of severe thermal stress (NOAA Bleaching Alert Level 2) for decade 2030. Values are a percent (as integer) of the decade in which the grid cell would experience severe thermal stress under an IPCC "business-as-usual" emissions scenario. The specific indicator used in the model was the frequency (number of years in the decade) that the bleaching threshold is reached at least once. Frequencies were adjusted to account for historical sea surface temperature variability. Values range from 0 to 100. See the Reefs at Risk Revisited report and technical notes for more information.


map background search result map search result map Evaluating Climate-Induced Runoff and Temperature Change on Stream Habitat Metrics for Endangered or Threatened Fish - BOR Project FY2011 Historical Growing Degree Days (average 1971-2000) for OR and WA, USA Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability Baseline and predicted future climate niches of Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) based on three general circulation models and two emission scenarios Standard Deviation of Annual Precipitation (2045-2060) from HadCM3 GCM under A2 scenario (Western USA) 4KM Results: Bias-corrected Average Annual Temperature (2045- 2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) Global forest die-off Mean Higher High Water, 2000, California, USA Estimated Frequency of Severe Thermal Stress in the 2030s under an IPCC business-as-usual emissions scenario Aboveground biomass (Mg C/ha) for the Amazon Basin under MPI ECHAM5 climate, no deforestation, and no fire scenarios (2000s) Percent change in aboveground tree cover for the Amazon Basin under CRU climate scenario with no deforestation with fire (2000s) White fir viability score, 2060 (CGCM3 GCM, A2 emissions scenario) White fir viability score, 2030 (CGCM3 GCM, A2 emissions scenario) Pacific Northwest sea-level rise modelling - Habitat classification for site one (2025, 1.5 meter rise scenario) Eastern United States Climate Change Tree Atlas - Suitable habitat for Quercus durandii (Durand oak) as measured by importance value (IV) Water Balance and Habitat Suitability Data for Pinus Albicaulis in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Pacific Northwest sea-level rise modelling - Habitat classification for site one (2025, 1.5 meter rise scenario) Water Balance and Habitat Suitability Data for Pinus Albicaulis in Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem Eastern United States Climate Change Tree Atlas - Suitable habitat for Quercus durandii (Durand oak) as measured by importance value (IV) Mean Higher High Water, 2000, California, USA Historical Growing Degree Days (average 1971-2000) for OR and WA, USA White fir viability score, 2060 (CGCM3 GCM, A2 emissions scenario) White fir viability score, 2030 (CGCM3 GCM, A2 emissions scenario) Standard Deviation of Annual Precipitation (2045-2060) from HadCM3 GCM under A2 scenario (Western USA) 4KM Results: Bias-corrected Average Annual Temperature (2045- 2060) from GFDL-driven RegCM3 climate model (Western US) Aboveground biomass (Mg C/ha) for the Amazon Basin under MPI ECHAM5 climate, no deforestation, and no fire scenarios (2000s) Percent change in aboveground tree cover for the Amazon Basin under CRU climate scenario with no deforestation with fire (2000s) Baseline and predicted future climate niches of Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) based on three general circulation models and two emission scenarios Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability Estimated Frequency of Severe Thermal Stress in the 2030s under an IPCC business-as-usual emissions scenario Global forest die-off