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Data points intensively sampling 46 North American biomes were used to predict the geographic distribution of biomes from climate variables using the Random Forests classification tree. Techniques were incorporated to accommodate a large number of classes and to predict the future occurrence of climates beyond the contemporary climatic range of the biomes. Errors of prediction from the statistical model averaged 3.7%, but for individual biomes, ranged from 0% to 21.5%. In validating the ability of the model to identify climates without analogs, 78% of 1528 locations outside North America and 81% of land area of the Caribbean Islands were predicted to have no analogs among the 46 biomes. Biome climates were projected...
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Although climate change is an important factor affecting fish globally, a comprehensive database of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We are conducting an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. From this standardized database of existing literature, we can examine global patterns in climate change impacts on inland fish. Following a decision path based on knowledge of how climate has been documented to affect fish biology in five main response categories (phenology, distribution,...
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Federal land managers need an adaptive management framework to accommodate changing conditions and that allows them to effectively link the appropriate science to natural resource management decision-making across jurisdictional boundaries. FRAME-SIMPPLLE is a collaborative modeling process designed to accomplish this goal by coupling the adaptive capabilities of the SIMPPLLE modeling system with accepted principles of collaboration. The two essential components of the process are FRAME (Framing Research in support of the Adaptive Management of Ecosystems), which creates a collaborative problem-solving environment, and SIMPPLLE (SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales), which is a vegetation dynamics...
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With joint funding from the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and NASA's Earth Science Applied Sciences Program, the NC CSC supports resource managers and their decision process through its Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation and Mitigation Planning (ReVAMP), a collaborative research/planning effort supported by high performance computing and modeling resources. The NC CSC focuses primarily on climate data as input to the ReVAMP. In this project the NASA DEVELOP program was used to evaluate how remote sensing data sets can contribute to the ecological response models that are implemented in the ReVAMP system. This work demonstrates the utility of remote sensing in vulnerability assessment...
A large proportion of rainfall in dryland ecosystems is intercepted by plant foliage and is generally assumed to evaporate to the atmosphere or drip onto the soil surface without being absorbed. We demonstrate foliar absorption of intercepted rainfall in a widely distributed, continental dryland, woody-plant genus: Juniperus. We observed substantial improvement in plant water status, exceeding 1.0 MPa water potential for drought-stressed plants, following precipitation on an experimental plot that excluded soil water infiltration. Experiments that wetted shoots with unlabeled and with isotopically labeled water confirmed that water potential responded substantially to foliar wetting, that these responses were not...
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Climate change is projected to have substantial impacts on Pacific Northwest water resources and ecosystems. Recognizing this, resource managers have expressed growing interest in incorporating climate change information into long-range planning. The availability of hydrologic scenarios to support climate change adaptation and long-range planning, however, has been limited until very recently to a relatively small number of selected case studies. More comprehensive resources needed to support regional planning have been lacking. Furthermore, ecosystem studies at the landscape scale need consistent climate change information and databases over large geographic areas. Products using a common set of methods that would...
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This project addressed regional climate change effects on aquatic food webs in the Great Lakes. We sought insights by examining Lake Erie as a representative system with a high level of anthropogenic impacts, strong nutrient gradients, seasonal hypoxia, and spatial overlap of cold- and cool-water fish guilds. In Lake Erie and in large embayments throughout the Great Lakes basin, this situation is a concern for fishery managers, as climate change may exacerbate hypoxia and reduce habitat volume for some species. We examined fish community composition, fine-scale distribution, prey availability, diets, and biochemical tracers for dominant fishes from study areas with medium-high nutrient levels (mesotrophic, Fairport...
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This project builds upon existing data and collaborations to incorporate climate change and economic considerations into a decision support framework for prioritizing restoration of passage. Planned outcomes will help guide on-the-ground decisions in terms of adapting to anticipated climate effects, allocating limited resources for restoration, and providing tools that can be adapted across the NPLCC and beyond.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, Applications and Tools, Applications and Tools, Climate Change, Conservation Planning, All tags...
Abstract (from http://afs.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03632415.2016.1186016): Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems...
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Tribal communities are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their reliance on the natural environment to sustain traditional activities and their limited resources to respond to climate change impacts. At the same time, tribes have valuable traditional knowledge that can aid regional efforts to address climate change. There were two overarching goals of this project: The first was to build partnerships between South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) researchers and tribal communities, linking tribes with climate change tools and resources and developing a model that could be replicated in other regions. The second goal was to document tribal viewpoints on climate change impacts...
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Soil SensitivityWhat is it? Soil sensitivity is a measure of a soil's ability to endure or recover from a disturbance. Soils declared "sensitive" may have characteristics that make them more susceptible to the impacts of climate change, fire or human disturbances.Why do I care?Sensitive soils may be more suscepible to impacts and more difficult to restore following a disurbance. Therefore, it is important to identify these soils and prepare mitigation strategies to maintain soil stability and productivity. What can I do about it?Consider the potential impacts of any activities to take place on sensitive soils. Use strategies to reduce erosion and maintain soil productivity. Consult experts and best management...
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This project addressed regional climate change effects on aquatic food webs in the Great Lakes. We sought insights by examining Lake Erie as a representative system with a high level of anthropogenic impacts, strong nutrient gradients, seasonal hypoxia, and spatial overlap of cold- and cool-water fish guilds. In Lake Erie and in large embayments throughout the Great Lakes basin, this situation is a concern for fishery managers, as climate change may exacerbate hypoxia and reduce habitat volume for some species. We examined fish community composition, fine-scale distribution, prey availability, diets, and biochemical tracers for dominant fishes from study areas with medium-high nutrient levels (mesotrophic, Fairport...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Academics & scientific researchers, CSC, Climate Change, Conservation NGOs, All tags...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00126.1): We describe the expansion of a publicly available archive of downscaled climate and hydrology projections for the United States. Those studying or planning to adapt to future climate impacts demand downscaled climate model output for local or regional use. The archive we describe attempts to fulfill this need by providing data in several formats, selectable to meet user needs. Our archive has served as a resource for climate impacts modelers, water managers, educators, and others. Over 1,400 individuals have transferred more than 50 TB of data from the archive. In response to user demands, the archive has expanded from monthly downscaled...
With the extensive loss and fragmentation of most native habitats, connectivity has become increasingly important for sustaining wildlife populations and communities. Connectivity can be defined as the extent to which the landscape facilitates or impedes the movement of organisms among patches of habitat. The goal of this project was to evaluate terrestrial connectivity across the South Central United States. We addressed this goal using a variety of approaches, including evaluating connectivity of major habitats (grasslands and forests), predicting future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species under future land-use change scenarios, assessing terrestrial vertebrate diversity in relation to habitat...


    map background search result map search result map Using a Collaborative Modeling Approach to Explore Climate and Landscape Change in the Northern Rockies and Inform Adaptive Management Understanding How Climate Change will Impact Aquatic Food Webs in the Great Lakes Regional Short- and Long-term Climate Impacts on Northern Rocky Mountain and Great Plains Ecosystems Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S. Hydrologic Climate Change Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin and Coastal Drainages Sensitive soil factors for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative Prioritizing restoration and enhancement of passage at stream-road crossings for aquatic vertebrates in the face of changing hydrologic regimes in the NPLCC Systematic Literature Review of Climate Change Impacts to Inland Fishes North American vegetation model data for land-use planning in a changing climate: Understanding How Climate Change will Impact Aquatic Food Webs in the Great Lakes Prioritizing restoration and enhancement of passage at stream-road crossings for aquatic vertebrates in the face of changing hydrologic regimes in the NPLCC Understanding How Climate Change will Impact Aquatic Food Webs in the Great Lakes Understanding How Climate Change will Impact Aquatic Food Webs in the Great Lakes North American vegetation model data for land-use planning in a changing climate: Sensitive soil factors for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative Hydrologic Climate Change Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin and Coastal Drainages Inter-Tribal Workshops on Climate Change in the Central U.S. Using a Collaborative Modeling Approach to Explore Climate and Landscape Change in the Northern Rockies and Inform Adaptive Management Regional Short- and Long-term Climate Impacts on Northern Rocky Mountain and Great Plains Ecosystems Systematic Literature Review of Climate Change Impacts to Inland Fishes