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These data represent simulated soil temperature and moisture conditions for current climate, and for future climate represented by all available climate models at two time periods during the 21st century. These data were used to: 1) quantify the direction and magnitude of expected changes in several measures of soil temperature and soil moisture, including the key variables used to distinguish the regimes used in the R and R categories; 2) assess how these changes will impact the geographic distribution of soil temperature and moisture regimes; and 3) explore the implications for using R and R categories for estimating future ecosystem resilience and resistance.
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The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the north-central U.S. and south-central Canada contains millions of small prairie wetlands that provide critical habitat to many migrating and breeding waterbirds. Due to their small size and the relatively dry climate of the region, these wetlands are considered at high risk for negative climate change effects as temperatures increase. To estimate the potential impacts of climate change on breeding waterbirds, we predicted current and future distributions of species common in the PPR using species distribution models (SDMs). We created regional-scale SDMs for the U.S. PPR using Breeding Bird Survey occurrence records for 1971–2011 and wetland, upland, and climate variables....
This project gallery includes all project reports and associated assessment materials, including interactive and downloadable connectivity and climate datasets for the project " Creating Practitioner-driven, Science-based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in a Changing Climate: A Collaborative Assessment of Climate-Connectivity Needs in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region".
These data were compiled as a supplement to a previously published journal article (Bradford et al., 2019), that employed a ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America. Also, these data are associated with a published USGS data release (Bradford and Schlaepfer, 2019). The objectives of our study were to (1) characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America, (2) evaluate the impact of these changes on estimation of resilience and resistance among a representative set of climate scenarios. These data represent geographic patterns...
Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management of recreationally and commercially important fisheries, which have been valued at more than $7 billion USD annually. Our research focused on how climate change could influence fish habitat (including water temperature, ice cover, and water levels), phytoplankton production that supports fish biomass, and ultimately the growth and consumption of many important recreational and commercial fish species. This final report was produced for the NCCWSC-funded project Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes.
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This project acquired, federated and curated approximately one million new observations to the Avian Knowledge Network. These new observations, in addition to millions of existing records, were used to model the distribution and abundance of 26 species of land birds in the southern portion of the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) region including CA, OR and WA. The models were based on climate and modeled vegetation.Using the models, maps were created showing the distribution and abundance of each species for current (late 20th century) conditions and projected the models to future conditions (2070) based on five regional climate models. The bird models were also used to create maps of conservation...
Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Assessenspecies migration, BIOSPHERICINDICATORS, CA-2, All tags...
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​This map shows the observed percentage of suitable prescribed burning days in the south-eastern United States during the summer season (June to August) for the years 1980 to 2017.
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0199.1): Future snowfall and snowpack changes over the mountains of Southern California are projected using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical framework. Output from all general circulation models (GCMs) in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive is downscaled to 2-km resolution over the region. Variables pertaining to snow are analyzed for the middle (2041–60) and end (2081–2100) of the twenty-first century under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP8.5 (business as usual) and RCP2.6 (mitigation). These four sets of projections are compared with a baseline reconstruction of climate from 1981 to 2000....
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This map shows the projected percentage of suitable prescribed burning days in the south-eastern United States during the summer season (June to August) for the years 2010 to 2099.
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This project acquired, federated and curated approximately one million new observations to the Avian Knowledge Network. These new observations, in addition to millions of existing records, were used to model the distribution and abundance of 26 species of land birds in the southern portion of the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) region including CA, OR and WA. The models were based on climate and modeled vegetation.Using the models, maps were created showing the distribution and abundance of each species for current (late 20th century) conditions and projected the models to future conditions (2070) based on five regional climate models. The bird models were also used to create maps of conservation...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Applications and Tools, Assessenspecies migration, BIOSPHERICINDICATORS, All tags...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10980-015-0217-1): Context Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to make better decisions. Objective Our objective was to test the hypothesis that agreement between process and species distribution models varies by hierarchical level. Due to the top-down approach of species distribution models and the bottom-up approach of process...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0082.1): A new technique for statistically downscaling climate model simulations of daily temperature and precipitation is introduced and demonstrated over the western United States. The localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method produces downscaled estimates suitable for hydrological simulations using a multiscale spatial matching scheme to pick appropriate analog days from observations. First, a pool of candidate observed analog days is chosen by matching the model field to be downscaled to observed days over the region that is positively correlated with the point being downscaled, which leads to a natural independence of the downscaling results...
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​This map shows the observed percentage of suitable prescribed burning days in the south-eastern United States during the fall season (September to November) for the years 1980 to 2017.
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The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed...
Abstract: Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong site fidelity; therefore, conservation strategies could benefit from an understanding of the population dynamics and vulnerability of breeding colonies to climate change. More than 350 atolls exist across the Pacific Ocean; while they provide nesting habitat for many seabirds, they are also vulnerable to sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore seabird colony dynamics and the potential consequences of sea-level rise. We compiled a unique combination of data sets: historical observations of islands...
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Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. Theclimatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodologicaldecisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climateprojections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM)performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecologicalmodels. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments onmean projected...
This model was used in Camouflage mismatch in seasonal coat color due to decreased snow duration (Mills et al. 2013, PNAS). Information about this model and analysis can be found at: http://www.pnas.org/content/110/18/7360.abstract.
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This project will develop species distribution models (SDM) to evaluate current and future occurrence and density of wetland-dependent birds relative to several predictors, including land use patterns, wetland condition and connectivity, geomorphic setting and climate. These tools will suggest which wetland-dependent bird species appear most vulnerable to climate and land use change based on the expected extent of range change under various scenarios. Knowledge of natural history and habitat associations of species coupled with coefficients from regression models will provide insight into the potential reasons for species vulnerability. This information will be valuable in the development of management strategies.
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​This map shows the observed percentage of suitable prescribed burning days in the south-eastern United States during the spring season (March to May) for the years 1980 to 2017.
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Florida is home to 50 endangered species, 23 National Wildlife Refuges, 9 national parks, and 119 state parks. Straddling both temperate and sub-tropical zones, the state is also unique in that it is a long and narrow peninsula, surrounded on three sides by warm water, creating a dynamic environment. The impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and severe storms, threaten the state’s unique biodiversity—yet managers are unsure how species will respond to these changes, which makes planning for the future difficult. In order to identify the impacts of climate change on Florida’s plants and wildlife, researchers developed regional climate scenarios identifying how temperature and precipitation patterns...
map background search result map search result map How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Capture of Down-Scale Climate Change Models. Part B: The Application of High Resolution Climate Models for Avian Conservation Current and Future Distribution and Abundance of North Pacific Birds in the Context of Climate Change Current and Future Abundance of North Pacific Birds in the Context of Climate Change - GIS Files Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data for drylands of western U.S. and Canada Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Summer 2010-2099 - RCP 4.5 Observed Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Spring 1980-2017 Observed Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Summer 1980-2017 Observed Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Fall 1980-2017 High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Current and Future Distribution and Abundance of North Pacific Birds in the Context of Climate Change Current and Future Abundance of North Pacific Birds in the Context of Climate Change - GIS Files Capture of Down-Scale Climate Change Models. Part B: The Application of High Resolution Climate Models for Avian Conservation Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region Vulnerability of Breeding Waterbirds to Climate Change in the Prairie Pothole Region Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Observed Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Spring 1980-2017 Observed Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Summer 1980-2017 Observed Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Fall 1980-2017 Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Summer 2010-2099 - RCP 4.5 Historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data for drylands of western U.S. and Canada High-resolution maps of historical and 21st century soil temperature and moisture data using multivariate matching algorithms for drylands of western U.S. and Canada