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Parent Project: Range-Wide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout Publication Abstract: Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species’ range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Fish,
Northwest CASC,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Salvelinus confluentus,
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414003990#): Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May-October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Ensemble,
Fish,
National CASC,
Regional prediction,
River,
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