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Freshwater fish are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change globally but are generally understudied in tropical island ecosystems. Climate change is predicted to alter the intensity, frequency, and variability of extreme flow events on the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. These changes may impact Caribbean native and non-native stream ecosystems and biota complex ways. We compiled an extensive dataset of native and non-native fish assemblages collected at 119 sites across Puerto Rico from 2005 to 2015. We coupled these data with stream flow indices and dam height to understand how flow dynamics drive fish assemblage structure. Sixteen percent of sites contained exclusively non-native species, 34% contained...
* We review the predicted changes in extreme events following climate change in flowing waters in arctic and subarctic regions. These regions are characterised by tundra or taiga ecosystems in either erosional or depositional glacial landforms or presently glacierised areas of the Northern Hemisphere. * The ecological and geomorphic effects of extreme meteorological and hydrological events, such as episodes of strongly increased precipitation, temperatures and flows, can be exacerbated by altered base conditions. For example, winter temperature variations between frost and thaw will become more frequent at many places because mean temperature during the winter is closer to 0 °C, potentially leading to changes in...
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
* We review the predicted changes in extreme events following climate change in flowing waters in arctic and subarctic regions. These regions are characterised by tundra or taiga ecosystems in either erosional or depositional glacial landforms or presently glacierised areas of the Northern Hemisphere. * The ecological and geomorphic effects of extreme meteorological and hydrological events, such as episodes of strongly increased precipitation, temperatures and flows, can be exacerbated by altered base conditions. For example, winter temperature variations between frost and thaw will become more frequent at many places because mean temperature during the winter is closer to 0 °C, potentially leading to changes in...
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The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-­consistent set of downscaled projections across the western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections - in particular for extreme events - is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models...
Most of the great California–Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record (1948–2006). Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime...
Climate models predict, and empirical evidence confirms, that more extreme precipitation regimes are occurring in tandem with warmer atmospheric temperatures. These more extreme rainfall patterns are characterized by increased event size separated by longer within season drought periods and represent novel climatic conditions whose consequences for different ecosystem types are largely unknown. Here, we present results from an experiment in which more extreme rainfall patterns were imposed in three native grassland sites in the Central Plains Region of North America, USA. Along this 600 km precipitation–productivity gradient, there was strong sensitivity of temperate grasslands to more extreme growing season rainfall...
Experimental observations collected during meteorological field studies conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration near the Russian River of coastal northern California are combined with SSM/I satellite observations offshore to examine the role of landfalling atmospheric rivers in the creation of flooding. While recent studies have documented the characteristics and importance of narrow regions of strong meridional water vapor transport over the eastern Pacific Ocean (recently referred to as atmospheric rivers), this study describes their impact when they strike the U.S. West Coast. A detailed case study is presented, along with an assessment of all 7 floods on the Russian River since the experimental...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063238/pdf): The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical...
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Surrounded by saltwater, human and natural communities on the Hawaiian Islands depend upon the freshwater supplied by rainfall for survival. Climate change will likely alter rainfall timing and intensity, but global climate models cannot capture the fine-scale dynamics of local rainfall, making future rainfall predictions for the islands uncertain. For this project, scientists used a technique called statistical downscaling (combining coarse-scale climate models with local historical data) to generate high-resolution maps showing seasonal rainfall change projections for Hawaiʻi over the course of this century. Results suggest that Hawaiʻi’s climate will become drier overall in the second half of the century, but...
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This archive contains two datasets. Both cover the northwestern United States and part of southern British Columbia (N of about 38 degrees N and W of about 105 degrees W) at 1/16th (0.0625) degree resolution. Climate and hydrologic variables (21 total) in each are as follows: precipitation, temperature (avg./max./min.), outgoing longwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, evapotranspiration, runoff, baseflow, soil moisture (3-layers), snow water equivalent, snow depth, and potential evapotranspiration (5 vegetation references). The first dataset, "Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Dynamically Downscaled Data", contains daily dynamically downscaled climate...
Recent flooding and heavy precipitation events in the US and worldwide have caused great damage to crop production. If the frequency of these weather extremes were to increase in the near future, as recent trends for the US indicate and as projected by global climate models (e.g., US National Assessment, Overview Report, 2001, The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, National Assesment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC; Houghton et al., 2001, IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 335pp.), the cost of crop losses in the coming decades could...
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Improving the quality of habitat for western big-game species, such as elk and mule deer, was identified as a priority by the Department of the Interior in 2018. Maintaining healthy herds not only supports the ecosystems where these species are found, but also the hunting and wildlife watching communities. For example, in Wyoming, big game hunting contributed over $300 million to the state’s economy in 2015. Yet as climate conditions change, the quantity, quality, and timing of vegetation available to mule deer, elk, and other ungulates, known as forage, could shift. It’s possible that these changes could have cascading impacts on the behavior and population sizes of many species. A key strategy used by managers...
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Extreme events not only affect people but can have detrimental impacts on natural resources, such as fish and freshwater habitats. Impacts of extreme events, like hurricanes, tornadoes, and extreme flooding, have immediate consequences, but also have the ability to alter habitats and animals far in the future by providing opportunities for exotic species to colonize new areas. Some fish communities in streams, rivers, and lakes may have the natural ability to resist the long-term impacts of extreme weather events. In this project, researchers will investigate the ability of Caribbean fish assemblages in Puerto Rico, which have both economic and cultural importance, to resist the impacts of extreme weather events....


    map background search result map search result map Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Datasets Impacts of Global Change on Biotic Resistance, Resilience, and Ecosystem Services in Caribbean Fish Assemblages, Fisheries, and Aquatic Ecosystems Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming The Effects of Flow Extremes on Native and Non-Native Stream Fishes in Puerto Rico Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands Predicting Future Forage Conditions for Elk and Mule Deer in Montana and Wyoming Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Datasets Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa