Skip to main content
USGS - science for a changing world
Advanced Search

Filters: Tags: forecast (X)

467 results (50ms)   

Filters
Date Range
Extensions
Contacts
Categories
Tag Types
Tag Schemes
View Results as: JSON ATOM CSV
thumbnail
The MAPSS team together with long-time collaborator Chris Daly of the Spatial Climate Analysis Service is using Daly's PRISM model to produce high-resolution data grids of observed fire weather. The PRISM model produces interpolations of weather station data that are sensitive to topography, which is especially important in the complex, fire-prone terrain of the mountainous West. Input station data are gathered primarily from the National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) and U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS) SNOTEL networks. For mapped examples of the PRISM-generated historical weather data grids see the Spatial Climate Analysis Service's Web...
thumbnail
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
thumbnail
This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
thumbnail
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
thumbnail
This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
thumbnail
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that can be calculated for different time periods to indicate periods of abnormal wetness or dryness. SPI is derived solely from monthly precipitation and can be compared across regions with different climates. The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation, and the probabilities are standardized so that an index of zero indicates the median precipitation amount (half of the historical precipitation amounts are below the median, and half are above the median). This dataset shows the average 12-month SPI (in classes ranging from extremely wet to extremely dry) for the three-month forecast period indentified...
thumbnail
This dataset shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) formulas, monthly climatic (temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) data, and fuel moisture and loading estimates. Monthly climatic data includes recorded values up to the last observed...
thumbnail
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has derived climate suitability forecasts for most species of trees and shrubs considered to be ecological dominants of terrestrial Californian habitat types. Our plant projections are compiled as decision support tools to help Conservancy project staff, as well as our external partners, develop the necessary plans, priorities and strategies to successfully adapt to uncertain changes in future climate. In the recently completed Southern Sierra Partnership's 2010 Climate-Adapted Conservation Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, species and habitat forecasts shown here informed the development of a regional conservation design that explicitly incorporates long-term...
thumbnail
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has derived climate suitability forecasts for most species of trees and shrubs considered to be ecological dominants of terrestrial Californian habitat types. Our plant projections are compiled as decision support tools to help Conservancy project staff, as well as our external partners, develop the necessary plans, priorities and strategies to successfully adapt to uncertain changes in future climate. In the recently completed Southern Sierra Partnership's 2010 Climate-Adapted Conservation Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, species and habitat forecasts shown here informed the development of a regional conservation design that explicitly incorporates long-term...
thumbnail
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has derived climate suitability forecasts for most species of trees and shrubs considered to be ecological dominants of terrestrial Californian habitat types. Our plant projections are compiled as decision support tools to help Conservancy project staff, as well as our external partners, develop the necessary plans, priorities and strategies to successfully adapt to uncertain changes in future climate. In the recently completed Southern Sierra Partnership's 2010 Climate-Adapted Conservation Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, species and habitat forecasts shown here informed the development of a regional conservation design that explicitly incorporates long-term...
thumbnail
This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
thumbnail
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
This dataset consists of the current distribution (2000s) of mangrove forests in the southeastern U.S. This dataset was created from the current best available mangrove data on a state specific basis. Florida mangrove data was extracted from Florida Landuse Land Cover Classification System (FLUCCS). For Louisiana, we used observations of mangrove stands from aerial surveys by Michot et al. (2010). Mangrove presence in Texas came from maps produced by Sherrod & McMillan (1981) and the NOAA Benthic Habitat Atlas of Coastal Texas (Finkbeiner et al. 2009). Please note that this map depicts the distribution of mangrove forests and not mangrove individuals. More detailed information on this dataset is available in Osland...
thumbnail
The MAPSS team together with long-time collaborator Chris Daly of the Spatial Climate Analysis Service is using Daly's PRISM model to produce high-resolution data grids of observed fire weather. The PRISM model produces interpolations of weather station data that are sensitive to topography, which is especially important in the complex, fire-prone terrain of the mountainous West. Input station data are gathered primarily from the National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) and U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA-NRCS) SNOTEL networks. For mapped examples of the PRISM-generated historical weather data grids see the Spatial Climate Analysis Service's Web...
thumbnail
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is a measure of drought derived from both precipitation and temperature. Negative (i.e., dry) values of PDSI are closely associated with a high potential for wildland fire. PDSI is based on a supply-and-demand model of soil moisture originally developed by Wayne Palmer, who published his method in the 1965 paper Meteorological Drought for the Office of Climatology of the U.S. Weather Bureau.The index has proven to be most effective in indicating long-term drought (or wetness) over a matter of several months. PDSI calculations are standardized for an individual station (or grid cell) based on the long-term variability of precipitation and temperature at that location....
thumbnail
This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
thumbnail
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that can be calculated for different time periods to indicate periods of abnormal wetness or dryness. SPI is derived solely from monthly precipitation and can be compared across regions with different climates. The SPI is an index based on the probability of recording a given amount of precipitation, and the probabilities are standardized so that an index of zero indicates the median precipitation amount (half of the historical precipitation amounts are below the median, and half are above the median). This dataset shows the average 12-month SPI (in classes ranging from extremely wet to extremely dry) for the three-month forecast period indentified...
thumbnail
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has derived climate suitability forecasts for most species of trees and shrubs considered to be ecological dominants of terrestrial Californian habitat types. Our plant projections are compiled as decision support tools to help Conservancy project staff, as well as our external partners, develop the necessary plans, priorities and strategies to successfully adapt to uncertain changes in future climate. In the recently completed Southern Sierra Partnership's 2010 Climate-Adapted Conservation Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, species and habitat forecasts shown here informed the development of a regional conservation design that explicitly incorporates long-term...
thumbnail
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has derived climate suitability forecasts for most species of trees and shrubs considered to be ecological dominants of terrestrial Californian habitat types. Our plant projections are compiled as decision support tools to help Conservancy project staff, as well as our external partners, develop the necessary plans, priorities and strategies to successfully adapt to uncertain changes in future climate. In the recently completed Southern Sierra Partnership's 2010 Climate-Adapted Conservation Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, species and habitat forecasts shown here informed the development of a regional conservation design that explicitly incorporates long-term...
thumbnail
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has derived climate suitability forecasts for most species of trees and shrubs considered to be ecological dominants of terrestrial Californian habitat types. Our plant projections are compiled as decision support tools to help Conservancy project staff, as well as our external partners, develop the necessary plans, priorities and strategies to successfully adapt to uncertain changes in future climate. In the recently completed Southern Sierra Partnership's 2010 Climate-Adapted Conservation Plan for the Southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, species and habitat forecasts shown here informed the development of a regional conservation design that explicitly incorporates long-term...


map background search result map search result map MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-November 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast June - August 2012 (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Palmer drought severity index forecast May - July 2012 (based on CCM3V6 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-August 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-May 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast April - June 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast JANUARY - JUNE 2012 (based on COLA 7-month weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast April - October (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index consensus forecast April - October 2011 (based on five 7-mo weather forecasts) Palmer drought severity index forecast April - October 2011 (based on CCM3V6 7-mo weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast June - December 2011 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January - July 2011 (based on COLA 7-mo weather forecast) MCI DGVM high fire potential consensus forecast October-December, 2010 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Hot, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MIROC3.2 A2  projections Warm, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for spineless horsebrush (Tetradymia canescens) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MRI-CGCM2.3.2 A2  projections Warm, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for California black oak (Quercus kelloggii) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MRI-CGCM2.3.2 A2 projections Hot, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus betuloides) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MIROC3.2 A2  projections Hot, wet scenario forecast of climate suitability for common chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 IPSL-CM4 A2 projections Hot, wet scenario forecast of climate suitability for white fir (Abies concolor) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 IPSL-CM4 A2 projections Hot, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MIROC3.2 A2  projections Warm, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for spineless horsebrush (Tetradymia canescens) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MRI-CGCM2.3.2 A2  projections Warm, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for California black oak (Quercus kelloggii) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MRI-CGCM2.3.2 A2 projections Hot, dry scenario forecast of climate suitability for mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus betuloides) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 MIROC3.2 A2  projections Hot, wet scenario forecast of climate suitability for common chamise (Adenostoma fasciculatum) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 IPSL-CM4 A2 projections Hot, wet scenario forecast of climate suitability for white fir (Abies concolor) in the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains (California, USA) based upon downscaled 2045-2065 IPSL-CM4 A2 projections MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast January - July 2011 (based on COLA 7-mo weather forecast) MCI DGVM high fire potential consensus forecast October-December, 2010 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-November 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast June - August 2012 (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Palmer drought severity index forecast May - July 2012 (based on CCM3V6 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-August 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-May 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Palmer drought severity index forecast April - June 2012 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast) MC1 DGVM fire potential forecast JANUARY - JUNE 2012 (based on COLA 7-month weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast April - October (based on ECPC 7-mo weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index consensus forecast April - October 2011 (based on five 7-mo weather forecasts) Palmer drought severity index forecast April - October 2011 (based on CCM3V6 7-mo weather forecast) Standardized precipitation index forecast June - December 2011 (based on ECHAM 7-mo weather forecast)