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The Health and Safety Laboratory (HASL) of the Atomic Energy Commission has provided much of the data on exposure assessment in uranium contractor facilities and on fallout radionuclides in the environment. The research performed in the beryllium industry 1947-1949 led to establishment of the protection standards that exist to this day. This laboratory was formed in 1947, as part of the Medical Division of the New York Operations Office, directed by B.S. Wolf. HASL was directed initially by Merril Eisenbud and subsequently by S. Allen Lough and John Harley. The history of the Laboratory is traced from its beginning, and the projects described that led to HASL's reputation as a trouble-shooting arm of the Atomic...
With wind power capacities increasing in many electricity systems across the world, operators are faced with new problems related to the uncertain nature of wind power. Foremost of these is the quantification and provision of system reserve. In this paper a new methodology is presented which quantifies the reserve needed on a system taking into account the uncertain nature of the wind power. Generator outage rates and load and wind power forecasts are taken into consideration when quantifying the amount of reserve needed. The reliability of the system is used as an objective measure to determine the effect of increasing wind power penetration. The methodology is applied to a model of the all Ireland electricity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Wind
The Health and Safety Laboratory (HASL) of the Atomic Energy Commission has provided much of the data on exposure assessment in uranium contractor facilities and on fallout radionuclides in the environment. The research performed in the beryllium industry 1947-1949 led to establishment of the protection standards that exist to this day. This laboratory was formed in 1947, as part of the Medical Division of the New York Operations Office, directed by B.S. Wolf. HASL was directed initially by Merril Eisenbud and subsequently by S. Allen Lough and John Harley. The history of the Laboratory is traced from its beginning, and the projects described that led to HASL's reputation as a trouble-shooting arm of the Atomic...
Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue. Despite the fact that increasing accuracy in spot forecasts may reduce penalties, this paper shows that, if such forecasts are accompanied with information on their uncertainty, i.e., in the form of predictive distributions, then this can be the basis for defining advanced strategies for market participation. Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, costs, wind
Short-term wind power forecasting tools providing “single-valued” (spot) predictions are nowadays widely used. However, end-users may require to have additional information on the uncertainty associated to the future wind power production for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves estimation, unit commitment, trading in electricity markets, a.o. Several models for on-line uncertainty estimation have been proposed in the literature and new products from numerical weather prediction systems (ensemble predictions) have recently become available, which has increased the modelling possibilities. In order to provide efficient on-line uncertainty estimation, choices have to be made on which model and modelling...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Modeling, Wind
The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is...
Changes in the hydrologic equilibrium of a river basin resulting from resource development also produce changes in the quality pattern. since the burden of quality maintenance must be shared by users (just as are quantities) predictions are needed for quality changes which might result from contemplated development at any specified location within the river system. This study reports the development of a computer simulation model of the water and salt flow systems within the Upper Colorado River Basin. Because of the close relationship between the hydrologic and salinity flow systems, an understanding of the hydrologic system is essential to successful management of the salinity system. In this study development...
In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around £5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term...
The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, wind power
Present power markets are designed for trading conventional generation. For wind generation to participate in a short-term energy market, lengthy wind power production forecasts are required. Although wind speed forecasting techniques are constantly improving, wind speed forecasts are never perfect, and resulting wind power forecast errors imply imbalance costs for wind farm owners. In this paper, a new method for minimization of imbalance costs is developed. Stochastic programming is used to generate optimal wind power production bids for a short-term power market. A Wind power forecast error is represented as a stochastic process. The imbalance costs resulting from this strategy are then compared to the case when...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Wind, market
The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, wind power
The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, wind power
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were used as predictors in a long lead-time streamflow forecast model in which the partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique was used with over 600 unimpaired streamflow stations in the continental United States. Initially, PLSR calibration (or test) models were developed for each station, using the previous spring-summer Pacific (or Atlantic) Ocean SSTs as predictors. Regions were identified in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Colorado River Basin, Midwest, and Atlantic states in which Pacific Ocean SSTs resulted in skillful forecasts. Atlantic Ocean SSTs resulted in significant regions being identified in the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Atlantic...
In this study, a novel mathematical method is proposed for modeling and forecasting electric energy demand. The method is capable of making long-term forecasts. However, unlike other long-term forecasting models, the proposed method produces hourly results with improved accuracy. The model is constructed and verified using 26-year-long real-life load data (4 years with hourly resolution) obtained from the Turkish Electric Power Company. The overall method consists of a nested combination of three sub-sections for modeling. The first section is the coarse level for modeling variations of yearly average loads. The second section refines this structure by modeling weekly residual load variations within a year. The...
With wind power capacities increasing in many electricity systems across the world, operators are faced with new problems related to the uncertain nature of wind power. Foremost of these is the quantification and provision of system reserve. In this paper a new methodology is presented which quantifies the reserve needed on a system taking into account the uncertain nature of the wind power. Generator outage rates and load and wind power forecasts are taken into consideration when quantifying the amount of reserve needed. The reliability of the system is used as an objective measure to determine the effect of increasing wind power penetration. The methodology is applied to a model of the all Ireland electricity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Wind
ELECTRICITY GENERATED FROM WIND POWER WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE in the future energy supply in many countries. This implies the need to integrate this power into the existing electricity supply system, which was mainly designed for large units of fossil fuel and nuclear power stations. Wind power has different characteristics and therefore this integration leads to some important challenges from the point of view of the electricity system. The availability of the power supply generated from wind energy varies fundamentally from that generated conventionally from fossil fuels. The most important difference is that wind power generation depends on the availability of the wind; i.e., it is weather dependent. In the...