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Short-term wind power forecasting tools providing “single-valued” (spot) predictions are nowadays widely used. However, end-users may require to have additional information on the uncertainty associated to the future wind power production for performing more efficiently functions such as reserves estimation, unit commitment, trading in electricity markets, a.o. Several models for on-line uncertainty estimation have been proposed in the literature and new products from numerical weather prediction systems (ensemble predictions) have recently become available, which has increased the modelling possibilities. In order to provide efficient on-line uncertainty estimation, choices have to be made on which model and modelling...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, Modeling, Wind
The purpose of the pilot project is to trial different methods and vendors of wind power forecasting to determine the best approach to forecasting wind power in Alberta in the future. Three vendors were chosen with global forecasting experience; AWS Truewind (New York), energy & meteo systems (Germany), and WEPROG (Denmark). Each vendor will forecast for 12 geographically dispersed wind power facilities for a year (May 07 to May 08) providing a forecast covering the next 48 hours refreshed hourly. ORTECH Power was chosen to perform the quantitative analysis of the results analyzing methods, timeframes and geographical locations. Phoenix Engineering was chosen to collect all the necessary meteorological data required...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forecasting, wind power