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This paper reports on a project to compare predictions from a range of catchment models applied to a mesoscale river basin in central Germany and to assess various ensemble predictions of catchment streamflow. The models encompass a large range in inherent complexity and input requirements. In approximate order of decreasing complexity, they are DHSVM, MIKE-SHE, TOPLATS, WASIM-ETH, SWAT, PRMS, SLURP, HBV, LASCAM and IHACRES. The models are calibrated twice using different sets of input data. The two predictions from each model are then combined by simple averaging to produce a single-model ensemble. The 10 resulting single-model ensembles are combined in various ways to produce multi-model ensemble predictions....
......Scaling Up Alternative Energy Out of Site Eli...neighborhoods and threaten wildlife? Around the world...and other renewable-energy sources. Around the...views to threats to wildlife, air traffic, and...National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL......
Growing concern about climate change and energy security has led to increasing interest in developing renewable, domestic energy sources for meeting electricity, heating and fuel needs in the United States. Illinois has significant potential to produce bioenergy crops, including corn, soybeans, miscanthus (Miscanthus giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). However, land requirements for bioenergy crops place them in competition with more traditional agricultural uses, in particular food production. Additionally, environmental and economic conditions, including soil quality, climate, and variable agricultural costs, vary significantly across Illinois. The intent of this study is to examine the spatial and...
Understanding how changes in land use affect water quality of public supply wells (PSW) is important because of the strong influence of land use on water quality, the rapid pace at which changes in land use are occurring in some parts of the world, and the large contribution of groundwater to the global water supply. In this study, groundwater flow models incorporating particle tracking and reaction were used to analyze the response of water quality in PSW to land use change in four communities: Modesto, California (Central Valley aquifer); York, Nebraska (High Plains aquifer); Woodbury, Connecticut (Glacial aquifer); and Tampa, Florida (Floridan aquifer). The water quality response to measured and hypothetical...
Quantifying landscape dynamics is a central goal of landscape ecology, and numerous metrics have been developed to measure the influence of human activities on natural landscapes. Composite scores that characterize human modifications to landscapes have gained widespread use. A parsimonious alternative is to estimate the proportion of a cover type (i.e. natural) within a spatial neighborhood to characterize both compositional and structural aspects of natural landscapes. Here I extend this approach into a multi-scale, integrated metric and apply it to national datasets on land cover, housing density, road existence, and highway traffic volume to measure the dynamics of natural landscapes in the conterminous US....
......Scaling Up Alternative Energy Other Siting Problems...buildings, threatening wildlife, and polluting aquifers...forms of renewable energy are facing siting problems...buildings. Building solar energy installations can threaten wildlife. And storing billions......
Methane and nitrous oxide are potent greenhouse gases whose atmospheric abundances have increased significantly in the past 200 years, together accounting for approximately half of the radiative forcing associated with increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide. In order to understand the factors causing increase of these gases globally, we need to determine their emission rates at regional to continental scales. We directly link atmospheric observations with surface emissions using a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model, and then determine emission rates by optimizing prior emissions estimates. We use measurements from NOAA's tall tower and aircraft program in 2004, The Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport...
Rising global demand for energy, high energy prices, climate change, and the threat of terrorism all point to the need for greater energy efficiency and conservation in the United States. While technological innovation is plainly needed, our laws and institutional arrangements must also play an important role. The United States has scores of legal and policy tools from which to choose to improve energy efficiency and curb energy consumption. This Article, which grows out of a Spring 2006 seminar at theWidener University School of Law, evaluates a handful of these tools: transit-oriented development; fuel taxation; real-time pricing for electricity use; public benefit funds; improving the efficiency of existing residential...
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Over the last century there has been marked expansion and infilling of pinyon (Pinus spp.)–juniper (Juniperus spp.) woodlands into grassland and shrubland ecosystems across the western United States. Although range expansions in pinyon-juniper populations have been documented with changing climate throughout the Holocene, over the last century, local scale impacts such as livestock grazing, changes in fire regimes, and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are thought to be more recent drivers of pinyon-juniper woodland distribution. Our objective was to examine the role of historical livestock grazing relative to past climate in regulating pinyon (Pinus edulis Engelm.) recruitment and growth over the last...
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The waters of the Colorado River serve 27 million people in seven states and two countries but are overallocated by more than 10% of the river's historical mean. Climate models project runoff losses of 7-20% from the basin in this century due to human-induced climate change. Recent work has shown however that by the late 1800s, decades prior to allocation of the river's runoff in the 1920s, a fivefold increase in dust loading from anthropogenically disturbed soils in the southwest United States was already decreasing snow albedo and shortening the duration of snow cover by several weeks. The degree to which this increase in radiative forcing by dust in snow has affected timing and magnitude of runoff from the Upper...
This paper analyzes the role of global land-use in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyze competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors and input substitution between land and other factors of production. In our analysis of carbon taxation, we find...
Use of ethanol as a transportation fuel in the United States has grown from 76 dam3 in 1980 to over 40.1 hm3 in 2009 — and virtually all of it has been produced from corn. It has been debated whether using corn ethanol results in any energy and greenhouse gas benefits. This issue has been especially critical in the past several years, when indirect effects, such as indirect land use changes, associated with U.S. corn ethanol production are considered in evaluation. In the past three years, modeling of direct and indirect land use changes related to the production of corn ethanol has advanced significantly. Meanwhile, technology improvements in key stages of the ethanol life cycle (such as corn farming and ethanol...
A trend of increasing streamflow has been observed in the Mississippi River (MR) basin since the 1940 s as a result of increased precipitation. Herein we show that increasing MR flow is mainly in its baseflow as a result of land use change and accompanying agricultural activities that occurred in the MR basin during the last 60 years. Agricultural land use change in the MR basin has affected the basin-scale hydrology: more precipitation is being routed into streams as baseflow than stormflow since 1940 s. We explain that the conversion of perennial vegetation to seasonal row crops, especially soybeans, in the basin since 1940 s may have reduced evapotranspiration, increased groundwater recharge, and thus increased...
There is substantial concern that bioenergy policies could swamp other considerations, such as environmental values, and lead to large-scale conversions of land from forest to crops. This study examines how bioenergy and marketed environmental rents for forestland potentially influence land use in the Midwestern US. We hypothesize that current land uses reflect market values for environmental benefits of forestland, so that the marketed component of the environmental value of land can be captured as the difference between Census land values and value of land as a timber asset. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the land use shares of forests, crops and urban in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. The results...
There is substantial concern that bioenergy policies could swamp other considerations, such as environmental values, and lead to large-scale conversions of land from forest to crops. This study examines how bioenergy and marketed environmental rents for forestland potentially influence land use in the Midwestern US. We hypothesize that current land uses reflect market values for environmental benefits of forestland, so that the marketed component of the environmental value of land can be captured as the difference between Census land values and value of land as a timber asset. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the land use shares of forests, crops and urban in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. The results...
Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and...
Recently, an active debate has emerged around greenhouse gas emissions due to indirect land use change (iLUC) of expanding agricultural areas dedicated to biofuel production. In this paper we provide a detailed analysis of the iLUC effect, and further address the issues of deforestation, irrigation water use, and crop price increases due to expanding biofuel acreage. We use GLOBIOM – an economic partial equilibrium model of the global forest, agriculture, and biomass sectors with a bottom-up representation of agricultural and forestry management practices. The results indicate that second generation biofuel production fed by wood from sustainably managed existing forests would lead to a negative iLUC factor, meaning...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Biofuels, Land use change, Modelling
There is substantial concern that bioenergy policies could swamp other considerations, such as environmental values, and lead to large-scale conversions of land from forest to crops. This study examines how bioenergy and marketed environmental rents for forestland potentially influence land use in the Midwestern US. We hypothesize that current land uses reflect market values for environmental benefits of forestland, so that the marketed component of the environmental value of land can be captured as the difference between Census land values and value of land as a timber asset. We use a multinomial logit model to estimate the land use shares of forests, crops and urban in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. The results...
Land use and land cover (LULC) was mapped using historical aerial photos (1940) and contemporary QuickBird satellite imagery (2003) for a 100 km2 area covering portions of Erie Township, Michigan, and Toledo, Ohio on the western end of Lake Erie. This area serves as a microcosm of conditions elsewhere on the Great Lakes coast, containing a range of human-altered to natural landscapes. Geographic information system analysis was used to measure LULC change within the study area based on the 1940 and 2003 maps, and to illustrate the use of historical aerial photos and data to quantify changes in anthropogenic pressures to coastal ecosystems. Agriculture was and is the main land use in the study site, constituting 78%...
Growing concern about climate change and energy security has led to increasing interest in developing renewable, domestic energy sources for meeting electricity, heating and fuel needs in the United States. Illinois has significant potential to produce bioenergy crops, including corn, soybeans, miscanthus (Miscanthus giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). However, land requirements for bioenergy crops place them in competition with more traditional agricultural uses, in particular food production. Additionally, environmental and economic conditions, including soil quality, climate, and variable agricultural costs, vary significantly across Illinois. The intent of this study is to examine the spatial and...
map background search result map search result map Influence of Livestock Grazing and Climate on Pinyon Pine (Pinus edulis) Dynamics - Rangeland Ecology & Management Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow Influence of Livestock Grazing and Climate on Pinyon Pine (Pinus edulis) Dynamics - Rangeland Ecology & Management Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow