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Abstract (from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26990459): There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling...
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The Latitude is the average latitude of all 0.5 degree cells covering the eastern United States and southeastern Canada between longitude 60W and 102 W and latitude 24N and 49N, weighted by the unconditional probability of occupancy of Louisiana Waterthrush. Values given for the years 1997 to 2013. The Latitude_SE is the estimated standard error for the Latitude. Description of the data and analysis used to generate these values is given in: Clement, M.J., J.E. Hines, J.D. Nichols, K.L. Pardieck, D.J. Ziolkowski Jr. 2016. Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect. Global Change Biology 22:3273-3285. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13283.


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