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This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
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Future (2046-2065) predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence projected under the A1fi emissions scenario with the Hadley CM3 GCM model (Gordon et al. 2000, Pope et al. 2000). Projected fisher distribution was created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using fisher detections (N = 102, spanning 1993 – 2011) and seven predictor variables: mean winter (January – March) precipitation, mean summer (July – September) precipitation, mean summer temperature amplitude, mean daily low temperature for the month of the year with the warmest mean daily low temperature, mean fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean vegetation carbon (g C m2), and modal vegetation class. Predictor variables had a grid cell size of...
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Description: Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using fisher detections (N = 102, spanning 1993 – 2011) and seven predictor variables: mean winter (January – March) precipitation, mean summer (July – September) precipitation, mean summer temperature amplitude, mean daily low temperature for the month of the year with the warmest mean daily low temperature, mean fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean vegetation carbon (g C m2), and modal vegetation class. Predictor variables had a grid cell size of 10 km, vegetation variables were simulated with MC1 (Hayhoe et al. 2004) and climate variables were provided by the PRISM GROUP (Daly et al. 1994). This...
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This map shows the predicted area of high fire potential for the current year up to the end of the forecast period as simulated by a modified version of the MC1 Dynamic General Vegetation Model (DGVM). Different colors indicate the level of consensus among five different MC1 simulations (i.e., one for each forecast provided by five different weather models), ranging from one of five to five of five simulations predicting high fire potential. The area of high fire potential is where PDSI and MC1-calculated values of potential fire behavior (fireline intensity for forest and shrubland and rate of spread of spread for grassland) exceed calibrated threshold values. Potential fire behavior in MC1 is estimated using...
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This dataset represents the average annual amount of water contributed to the stream network for each watershed, simulated by the model MC1 for the 30-year period 1971-2000. Simulated mean streamflow (stormflow + baseflow + runoff) was determined for each HUC5 watershed. Watersheds represent 5th level (HUC5, 10-digit) hydrologic unit boundaries and were acquired from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Streamflow units are comparable to rainfall - millimeters of water per year. Background: The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 (see Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts for OR, WA, AZ and NM, for a project...
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This dataset represents the average net primary production for each HUC5 watershed, simulated by the model MC1 for the 30-year period 1971-2000. Mean net primary production (in g m-2 per yr), was determined for each HUC5 watershed by averaging values of original ~ 4 km raster data. Watersheds represent 5th level (HUC5, 10-digit) hydrologic unit boundaries and were acquired from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Background: The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 (see Bachelet et al.2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts for OR, WA, AZ and NM, for a project funded by the USDA Forest Service (PNW09-JV-11261900-003). The MC1...
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decadal aflivcx, Miroc future E NGP, juniper 50% grazing, spring burn 40 yr return low regen capacity.
Tags: mc1
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This dataset was created using the MC1 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. It represents the mode of projected vegetation types for the time period 2041 to 2050 under the down-scaled CGCM3 Global Circulation Model under the A2 emissions scenario. The fire suppression condition was set for the model run. The spatial resolution is 30 arc seconds, and the extent is the four corners region of the southwestern USA (Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico).
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This dataset was created using the MC1 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. It represents the mode of projected vegetation types for the time period 2041 to 2050 under the down-scaled MIROC3 Global Circulation Model under the A2 emissions scenario. The fire suppression condition was set for the model run. The spatial resolution is 30 arc seconds, and the extent is the four corners region of the southwestern USA (Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico).
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Annual precipitation (mm) averaged over 1986 – 2005, simulated by the MC1 dynamic global vegetation model (Bachelet et al. 2001) at a 4 km x 4 km spatial resolution using PRISM climate for the historical period. This effort is part of a pilot project to apply and evaluate the Yale Framework (Yale Science Panel for Integrating Climate Adaptation and Landscape Conservation Planning). Note: The MC1 model is described in data basin (http://databasin.org/climate-center/features/mc1-dynamic-global-vegetation-model).
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Mean number of growing degree days above 0 °C , (1984 - 2008) for the Apache - Sitgraves study area, Arizona, USA
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Percent change in the average surface runoff for each HUC5 watershed between historical (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100) time periods. The MC1 dynamic vegetation model was run under the CSIRO, MIROC, and Hadley climate change projections and the A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario.Simulated mean annual surface runoff (in mm H2O yr-1), was determined for each HUC5 watershed by averaging values of original ~ 4 km raster data. Watersheds represent 5th level (HUC5, 10-digit) hydrologic unit boundaries and were acquired from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Background: The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 (see Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen...
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Percent change in the mean area burned per year (per ~4 km pixel ) for each HUC5 watershed between historical (1971-2000) and future (2071-2100) time periods. The MC1 dynamic vegetation model was run under the CSIRO, MIROC, and Hadley climate change projections and the A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario.Mean area burned per year per ~4 km pixel, (in square meters), was determined for each HUC5 watershed. Watersheds represent 5th level (HUC5, 10-digit) hydrologic unit boundaries and were acquired from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Background: The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 (see Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget,...
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Agreement in predicted marten year-round distribution derived from future (2046-2065) climate projections and vegetation simulations using 3 GCMs (Hadley CM3 (Johns et al. 2003), MIROC (Hasumi and Emori 2004), and CSIRO Mk3 (Gordon 2002)) under the A2 emissions scenario (Naki?enovi? et al. 2000). Projected marten distribution was created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using marten detections (N = 302, spanning 1990 – 2011) and eight predictor variables: mean potential evapotranspiration, mean annual precipitation, mean fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean forest carbon (g C m2), mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest, understory index (fraction of grass vegetation carbon in forest), average maximum...
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Predicted probability of marten year-round occurrence derived from future (2076-2095) climate projections and vegetation simulations. Projected marten distribution was created with Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006) using marten detections (N = 102, spanning 1993 – 2011) and eight predictor variables: mean potential evapotranspiration, mean annual precipitation, mean fraction of vegetation carbon burned, mean forest carbon (g C m2), mean fraction of vegetation carbon in forest, understory index (fraction of grass vegetation carbon in forest), average maximum tree LAI, and modal vegetation class. Future climate drivers were generated using statistical downscaling (simple delta method) of general circulation model projections,...
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Future winter (January – March) precipitation (mm; averaged over 2046-2065) at a 4 km x 4 km spatial resolution using future climate projections provided through CMIP3 (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php). Future climate drivers were generated using statistical downscaling (simple delta method) of general circulation model projections, in this case MIROC 3.2 medres (Hasumi and Emori 2004) under the A2 emission scenario (Naki?enovi? et al. 2000). The deltas (differences for temperatures and ratios for precipitation) were used to modify PRISM 4km historical baseline (Daly et al. 1994). Note: The MC1 model is described in data basin (http://databasin.org/climate-center/features/mc1-dynamic-global-vegetation-model)....
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This map represents the percent change in total ecosystem carbon from 1971-2000 to 2070-2099, simulated by the model MC1 under the Hadley future climate projection and A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario. The average annual value of total ecosystem carbon for the respective 30-year periods decreased in some of the 5,311 grid cells of the Eastern Oregon study area and increased in others.The range of data values is from -18.2% to +194.1%. The mean value is -78.0% The vegetation model MC1 (e.g. Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts at two study sites, one in eastern Oregon (Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests)...
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This map represents the difference in annual minimum temperatures, simulated by the model MC1 between the 30-year periods 1971-2000 and 2070-2099, using the Hadley future climate projection under the A2 anthropogenic emission scenario. The average annual minimum temperature for the respective 30-year periods increased in all of the 5,311 grid cells of the Apache-Sitgreaves study area. The greatest increase was 4.35 C; the least increase was 4.26 C; and the mean increase was 4.31 C. The vegetation model MC1 (e.g. Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts at two study sites in eastern Oregon (Deschutes and Fremont-Winema...
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This map represents the mean for the 30 year period 1971-2000 of the annual peak value of the fraction of live vegetation carbon which is in herbaceous (as opposed to woody) vegetation. The data is from output variable GFRAC in MC1 version B60. The data values are unitless fractions and range from 0 to 1. The vegetation model MC1 (e.g. Bachelet et al. 2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts at two study sites in eastern Oregon (Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests) and in Arizona (Apache Sitgreaves National Forest area) in the context of a project funded by the USDA Forest Service (PNW 09-JV-11261900-003). Historical climate...
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This dataset represents the average amount of soil carbon within each HUC5 watershed, simulated by the model MC1 for the 30-year period 1971-2000. Soil carbon, in g m-2, was determined for each HUC5 watershed. Watersheds represent 5th level (HUC5, 10-digit) hydrologic unit boundaries and were acquired from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Background: The dynamic global vegetation model MC1 (see Bachelet et al.2001) was used to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget, and wild fire impacts for OR, WA, AZ and NM, for a project funded by the USDA Forest Service (PNW09-JV-11261900-003). The MC1 model was run using historical data and future climate change projections...


map background search result map search result map AFLIVCXmy1 MC1 projections of potential vegetation types for (2041 to 2050) under the CGCM3 GCM A2 scenario MC1 projections of potential vegetation types for (2041 to 2050) under the MIROC3 GCM A2 scenario Simulated percent change in surface runoff between historical and future time periods under three climate change projections for AZ and NM, USA Simulated historical net primary production (1971-2000) for OR and WA, USA Simulated average historical soil carbon (1971-2000) for AZ and NM, USA Simulated percent change in area burned between historical and future time periods under three climate change projections for AZ and NM, USA Simulated average historical streamflow (1971-2000) for AZ and NM, USA MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-November 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Overlay of projected marten distributions, 2046-2065, 800 m resolution Predicted probability of marten year-round occurrence, 2076-2095, Hadley CM3 A2, 800 m resolution Mean winter (January – March) precipitation, 2046-2065, MIROC A2, 4 km resolution Mean annual precipitation, 1986 – 2005, 4 km resolution Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence, 2046-2065, Hadley CM3 A1fi, 10 km resolution Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence, 1986-2005, Hadley CM3 A1fi, 10 km resolution MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-May 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) Percent change in the average annual value of total ecosystem carbon between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099, as simulated by MC1 under Hadley A2 for the Eastern Oregon study area, USA Difference in mean annual minimum temperatures between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099 under Hadley A2 for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA Annual Fraction of the Total Live Vegetation Carbon Held in Herbaceous Plants (1971-2000) for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA Mean number of growing degree days above 0 °C, (1984 - 2008) for the Apache - Sitgraves study area, Arizona, USA Annual Fraction of the Total Live Vegetation Carbon Held in Herbaceous Plants (1971-2000) for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA Difference in mean annual minimum temperatures between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099 under Hadley A2 for the Apache-Sitgreaves study area, Arizona, USA Mean number of growing degree days above 0 °C, (1984 - 2008) for the Apache - Sitgraves study area, Arizona, USA Percent change in the average annual value of total ecosystem carbon between 1971-2000 and 2070-2099, as simulated by MC1 under Hadley A2 for the Eastern Oregon study area, USA AFLIVCXmy1 Simulated average historical streamflow (1971-2000) for AZ and NM, USA Overlay of projected marten distributions, 2046-2065, 800 m resolution Predicted probability of marten year-round occurrence, 2076-2095, Hadley CM3 A2, 800 m resolution Simulated percent change in surface runoff between historical and future time periods under three climate change projections for AZ and NM, USA Simulated average historical soil carbon (1971-2000) for AZ and NM, USA Simulated percent change in area burned between historical and future time periods under three climate change projections for AZ and NM, USA Simulated historical net primary production (1971-2000) for OR and WA, USA Mean winter (January – March) precipitation, 2046-2065, MIROC A2, 4 km resolution Mean annual precipitation, 1986 – 2005, 4 km resolution MC1 projections of potential vegetation types for (2041 to 2050) under the CGCM3 GCM A2 scenario MC1 projections of potential vegetation types for (2041 to 2050) under the MIROC3 GCM A2 scenario Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence, 2046-2065, Hadley CM3 A1fi, 10 km resolution Predicted probability of fisher year-round occurrence, 1986-2005, Hadley CM3 A1fi, 10 km resolution MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-November 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential) MC1 DGVM fire potential consensus forecast January-May 2012 (number of weather forecasts resulting in high potential)