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Phase 1 & 2 (2010, 2012): This project developed a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in the Central Valley and in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and develop an LCC-specific online shorebird monitoring portal publicly available at the California Avian Data Center. The three objectives in Phase II of this project are: 1) Complete the shorebird monitoring plan for the CA LCC by developing a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal southern California and northern Mexico. 2) Develop models to evaluate the influence of habitat factors from multiple spatial scales on shorebird use of San Francisco Bay and managed wetlands in the Sacramento Valley, as a model...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
Conclusions:Report synthesizes scientific, planning, and policy-related aspects on the importance of land conservation in areas producing water for potable uses, including watersheds and aquifers. One critical finding indicated that if there is more forest cover in a watershed, water treatment costs are lower.Thresholds/Learnings:For every 10% increase in forest cover in the source area, treatment and chemical costs decreased by about 20%, up to about 60% forest cover. Treatment costs level off when forest cover is between 70-100%.
This project integrates fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors). Anticipated products include: 1) maps (digital and hard copy) of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, CA, CA-Southern, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags...
This project used species distribution modeling, population genetics, and geospatial analysis of historical vs. modern vertebrate populations to identify climate change refugia and population connectivity across the Sierra Nevada. It is hypothesized that climate change refugia will increase persistence and stability of populations and, as a result, maintain higher genetic diversity. This work helps managers assess the need to include connectivity and refugia in climate change adaptation strategies. Results help Sierra Nevada land managers allocate limited resources, aid future scenario assessment at landscape scales, and develop a performance measure for assessing resilience.
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, CA, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Conservation Design, All tags...
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Synopsis: A review of the scientific literature describing the effects of linear developments on wildlife, especially large mammals, was provided. Of particular interest were the types of roads and linear developments created by the oil and pipeline industries in western Canada. The effects of linear developments (roads, powerline/pipeline rights-of-way, deforested strips) on wildlife were examined in the context of regional and landscape ecology. The review describes the different classes of linear disturbances, the various response categories for animal species and the impacts on species for the different classes. The review also provides potential mitigations and recommendations for landscape scale planning...
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The goals of this project were to: (1) produce a state-of-the-art assessment and synthesis of climate change projections, impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptive capacity, and prospects for mitigation and adaptation actions in the Southwest in support of the regional contribution to the National Climate Assessment; (2) develop an inventory of federal partners and stakeholders involved with climate adaptation programs, and (3) forge stronger bonds between the DOI-SW CSC, the three NOAA-RISAs in the Southwest, and the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives.
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The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).
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The Colorado River is the dominant water source for the southwestern United States, crossing through seven states before reaching Mexico. The river supplies water to approximately 36 million people, irrigates nearly six million acres of farmland within and beyond the basin, and contributes an estimated 26 billion dollars each year to the region’s recreational economy. Yet the Colorado River’s water supply is already fully allocated, meaning that the economic and environmental health of the region is closely tied to the river’s streamflow. Climate projections for the Southwest show a future marked by chronic drought and substantial reductions in streamflow. The region has already been impacted by climate change,...
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Synopsis: Synthesizes information on a range of tools for reducing the footprint of human use, with an intended focus on public lands and associated natural resources. Implementation considerations and links to other resources are provided. Many tools are related either directly or indirectly to landscape patterns. For example, the section on “Disturbance Standards, Limits, or Thresholds” provides guidance and case study examples of pattern-based threshold establishment and implementation considerations in Alberta, California, and Australia. Many other Integrated Land Management tools outlined also relate directly or indirectly to landscape patterns and techniques for their management. Selected examples under the...
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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, were also provided to enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.
This project uses bottom-up modeling at a parcel scale to measure the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems and tidal salt marshes. At selected tidal marshes, the project team will measure several parameters that will be incorporated into ArcGIS models creating comparable datasets across the Pacific coast tidal gradient with a focus on 2-4 sites in the California LCC (e.g. San Diego, San Francisco Bay Refuges). The ultimate goal is to provide science support tools for local adaptation planning from the bottom-up that may be implemented under a structured decision-making framework.Science Delivery Phase (2013): The objectives are to: (1) Disseminate site-specific baseline data and modeling results,...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, CA-Northern, All tags...
Conclusions:Generally, mimimum buffer widths may help maintain natural physical and chemical characteristics of resources whereas greater buffer widths may be required to maintain biological components of many wetlands and streams. Fixed width buffers do not consider site-specific conditions, and therefore may not adequately buffer aquatic resources. Variable width buffers, albeit more site specific and effective, are more expensive and offer less predictability for planning purposes.Thresholds/Learnings:Stream buffers should be a minimum of 15 to 30m in width to be effective in protecting the ecological integrity of wetlands and streams.
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The overarching goal of this research was to use site-specific data to develop local and regionally-applicable climate change models that inform management of tidal wetlands along the Pacific Northwest coast. The overarching questions were: (1) how do tidal marsh site characteristics vary across estuaries, and (2) does tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise (SLR) vary along a latitudinal gradient and between estuaries? These questions are addressed in this data collection with three specific objectives: (1) measure topographical and ecological characteristics (e.g., elevation, tidal range, vegetation composition) for tidal marsh and intertidal mudflats, (2) model SLR vulnerability of these habitats, and (3)...
Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
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Synopsis: One of the most important trends in biodiversity is the increase in the number of species as the land area increases. Botanists call this trend the species-area relationship, and it is one of the most dependable rules in biology. Many human activities on the landscape, influence species directly by disrupting their habitat, by removing other organisms upon which they may depend, or by injuring or killing them. Less direct, but in many cases equally as disruptive to the native species of an area, is the introduction of exotic species. In this study, data from published studies on flora over the last two centuries was used to produce contour maps of flora size and percentage of exotic species in North America...
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Conclusions: The negative effects of patch size and isolation on species may not occur until the landscape consists of less than 10% suitable habitat for birds, and 30% suitable habitat for mammals. Thresholds/Learnings: The negative effects of patch size and isolation on species may not occur until the landscape consists of less than 10% suitable habitat for birds, and 30% suitable habitat for mammals. Synopsis: This study involved a review of studies on birds and mammals in habitat patches in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat. The findings demonstrate that there exists a threshold in proportion of suitable habitat in the landscape, above which fragmentation becomes pure habitat loss....
The goal of this project is to create critically needed coastal fog datasets. Anticipated products from the collaboration between on-the-ground natural resource managers and a multidisciplinary coalition of physical scientists are: 1) a compilation of existing fog related data from multiple sources: satellite (AVHRR, GOES, Modis, Landsat), NOAA buoy , and airport and meteorological stations, 2) USGS Open File report documenting the results of a multiday working session with climatologists, remote sensing specialists, fog modelers, statisticians, and natural resource managers, convened to review the data, examine and assess the correlations between data streams and models, specify initial parameters to be extracted...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: evapotranspiration, 2011, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, California coast, Coastal, All tags...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.


map background search result map search result map Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Synthesis of Current Science and Assessment of Science Needs for Adaptation in the Southwest Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Changing Patterns in the Number of Species in North American Floras. Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat: a review. Integrated Land Management Tools Compendium The Effects of Linear Developments on Wildlife: A Review of Selected Scientific Literature Sea-level rise projections for and observational data of tidal marshes along the California coast Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Sea-level rise projections for and observational data of tidal marshes along the California coast Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Integrated Land Management Tools Compendium Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Synthesis of Current Science and Assessment of Science Needs for Adaptation in the Southwest The Effects of Linear Developments on Wildlife: A Review of Selected Scientific Literature Changing Patterns in the Number of Species in North American Floras. Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat: a review.