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This work provides a flexible and scalable framework to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC) region. This is accomplished through use of lumped parameter, physically-based, conceptual hydrologic and stream temperature models formulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This allows for model predictions of streamflow and temperature at ungaged locations and a formal accounting of model estimate uncertainty at each location, something not previously achieved in these models. These environmental models will also link seamlessly with the land use and fish models. The final products of this project will provide:...
Categories: Data; Tags: BIOSPHERE, BIOSPHERE, BIOSPHERE, Completed, DATA ANALYSIS AND VISUALIZATION, All tags...
A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Final Report.
Concurrent with the geographic expansion of the Southeast GAP land cover mapping will be a change detection effort that will provide updated land cover for portions of the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks geography previously mapped based on 2001 imagery.
This report enumerates the methodology and results of mapping glades in a total of 173 7.5 minute quadrangle maps for the Ozark Highlands Section of northern Arkansas during the 11 month reporting period commencing June of 2014 and ending May 20, 2015. When combined with the previous mapping during 2013-2014, the grand totals for all glades mapped in Arkansas are 29,810 glade polygons totaling 44,107 acres in 221 7.5 minute quadrangle maps. The Ozark Highlands Ecological Section was completed.The latest resulting glade shapefile reflects assignment of rock substrates that correspond to the Missouri glade rock types. The author decided to assign rock types based on accumulated knowledge, actual field verifications,...
The balance between economic needs and natural resource conservation will become more tenuous in the future as a result of a myriad of environmental stressors. We propose a methodology that can help guide forest management practices whenever adequate species locational data and quality forest or land use data exist. More specifically, the results of this study can be used to evaluate alternative land and silviculture management scenarios in terms of creating or maintaining high-quality forest habitat for a specific species. We used data collected on radiotelemetered black bears from 1988 to 2015 to develop a regional habitat model throughout Louisiana and Arkansas using Mahalanobis distance (D2) statistic. We created...
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Information on the nature and distribution of permafrost is critical to assessing the response of Arctic ecosystems to climate change, because thawing permafrost under a warming climate will cause thaw settlement and affect micro-topography, surface water redistribution and groundwater movement, soil carbon balance, trace gas emissions, vegetation changes, and habitat use. While a small-scale regional permafrost map is available, as well as information from numerous site-specific large-scale mapping projects, landscape-level mapping of permafrost characteristics is needed for regional modeling and climate impact assessments. The project addresses this need by: (1) compiling existing soil/permafrost data from available...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
The Nature Conservancy (TNC) recently completed an unprecedented assessment of almost 14,000 dams in the Northeastern United States. The Northeast Aquatic Connectivity (NAC) project allows fisheries managers and other interested parties to assess dams at multiple scales based on their potential to benefit anadromous and resident fish species if removed or bypassed. This work has continued, with support from NOAA and USFWS, in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, where data refinements and further analysis have produced a web map and tool that allow users to interactively prioritize dams for mitigation at multiple scales and with varying criteria.The Southeast Aquatic Resources Partnership (SARP) has recently completed...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska is a globally important region for numerousavian species including millions of migrating and nesting waterbirds. Climate change effectssuch as sea level rise and increased storm frequency and intensity have the potential to impactwaterbird populations and breeding habitat. In order to determine the potential impacts of theseclimate-mediated changes, we investigated both short-term and long-term impacts of stormsurges to geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Todetermine short-term impacts, we compared nest densities of geese and eiders in relation to themagnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000–2013. Additionally, we modeledgeese...
Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: BIRDS, BIRDS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, DELTAS, All tags...
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This project evaluated the potential impacts of storm surges and relative sea level rise on nesting geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). Habitat suitability maps for breeding waterbirds were developed to identify current waterbird breeding habitat and distributions. Short-term climate change impacts were assessed by comparing nest densities in relation to magnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000-2013. Additionally, nest densities were modeled using random forests in relation to the time-integrated flood index (e.g., a storm specific measure accounting for both water depth and duration of flooding) for four modeled storms (2005, 2006, 2009, and...
Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: BIRDS, BIRDS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, DELTAS, All tags...
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The PFLCC has recently completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological and urbanistic conditions. These spatially explicit and temporal scenarios simulate both urban growth and climate change and identify the most suitable areas for conservation given the resulting land use pattern. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements.The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully...
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The PFLCC has recently completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological and urbanistic conditions. These spatially explicit and temporal scenarios simulate both urban growth and climate change and identify the most suitable areas for conservation given the resulting land use pattern. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements.The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully...
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This carbon sequestration research is part of a new pilot grassland conservation program to protect at-risk grasslands from conversion to cropland in the northern Great Plains. Natural resources partners have leveraged more than $3 million in private and federal funding to support an innovative program that extends protection of privately-owned grasslands that have expired under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). In the past two years alone, the number of CRP acres nationally has dropped from 31.2 million to 27 million. Of the 4.2-million-acre-decline, lands lost in North Dakota and Montana accounted for 1.6 million acres, or 38 percent. The program aims to encourage private landowners to conserve CRP grasslands...
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Native grasslands have been reduced to a fraction of their original extent, with estimated total loss prior to the 1990s of 70% for prairie grassland (Federal Provincial and Territorial Governments of Canada 2010). Conversion of native grassland to cropland and tame hayfields or pasture has been one of the leading drivers of native grassland loss in North America. Degradation of native grasslands also continues in some areas due to changes in natural disturbance regimes such as fire suppression and intensive prolonged cattle grazing, threats from invasive non-native species, fragmentation, intensification of agriculture, and economic development associated with population growth(Federal Provincial and Territorial...
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The Williston Basin, located in the NorthernGreat Plains, is experiencing rapid energy developmentwith North Dakota and Montana being the epicenter ofcurrent and projected development in the USA. Theaverage single-bore well pad is 5 acres with an estimated58,485 wells in North Dakota alone. This landscapeleveldisturbance may provide a pathway for the establishmentof non-native plants. To evaluate potentialinfluences of energy development on the presence andabundance of non-native species, vegetation surveyswere conducted at 30 oil well sites (14 ten-year-oldand 16 five-year-old wells) and 14 control sites in nativeprairie environments across the Williston Basin. Nonnativespecies richness and cover were recorded...
This project used previously collected ShoreZone imagery to map nearly 1,600 km of coastline between Wales and Kotzebue. With additional mapping supported by the Arctic LCC and National Park Service, this effort completed the Kotzebue Sound shoreline, which now has been included in the state-wide ShoreZone dataset. The complete ShoreZone dataset for the region was used to conduct a coastal hazards analysis and create maps that identify areas undergoing rapid coastal erosion and areas that are sensitive to inundation by storm surge and sea level rise
Categories: Data; Tags: BEACHES, BEACHES, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL LANDFORMS, All tags...
The compilation of an accurate and contemporary digital shoreline for Alaska is an important step in understanding coastal processes and measuring changes in coastal storm characteristics. Consistent with efforts by the United States National Park Service (NPS) at Bering Land Bridge National Preserve (BELA) and Cape Krusenstern National Monument, high quality, defensible digital shoreline datasets are under development for select coastal parks in the State of Alaska. Near BELA, for the area from Cape Prince of Wales to Cape Espenberg, extended revised shoreline coverage can be produced using true color coastal shoreline imagery to update the boundary demarking the mean high water (MHW) shoreline, which represents...
map background search result map search result map Update of the Eastern Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Land Cover Database to 2011 Using a LS2SRC Classification Approach Carbon sequestration research to benefit grassland conservation in the northern Great Plains Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Blueprint 1.0 Development Process Habitat Grids Statewide Impact Assessment Reports Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Presence and abundance of non-native plant species associated with recent energy development in the Williston Basin Final Report: The Influence of Fall Storms on Nest Densities of Geese and Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska Part I Summary: Predicting waterbird nest distributions Permafrost Database Development, Characterization, and Mapping for Northern Alaska Final Report: The Influence of Fall Storms on Nest Densities of Geese and Eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska Part I Summary: Predicting waterbird nest distributions Carbon sequestration research to benefit grassland conservation in the northern Great Plains Habitat Grids Statewide Impact Assessment Reports Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Presence and abundance of non-native plant species associated with recent energy development in the Williston Basin Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Blueprint 1.0 Development Process Permafrost Database Development, Characterization, and Mapping for Northern Alaska Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone