Models, Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin 1

Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty:...

Categories: Publication; Types: Citation, Journal Citation; Tags: Colorado River, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, drought, public planning, river system models, All tags... water management, water supply variability, Fewer tags