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These tables serve as input data for hierarchical models investigating interactions between raven density and Greater Sage-grouse nest success. Observations were recorded over an 11 year time period, spanning from 2009 through 2019. The model is run in JAGS via R, the code is publicly available via the U.S. Geological Survey's GitLab (O'Neil et al. 2023). We recommend not making any changes or edits to the tables unless the user is experienced with hierarchical modeling. References: O'Neil, S.T., Coates, P.S., Webster, S.C., Brussee, B.E., Dettenmaier, S.J., Tull, J.C., Jackson, P.J., Casazza, M.L., and Espinosa, S.P., 2023, Code for a hierarchical model of raven densities linked with sage-grouse nest survival...
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Covering 120 million acres across 14 western states and 3 Canadian provinces, sagebrush provides critical habitat for species such as pronghorn, mule deer, and sage-grouse – a species of conservation concern. The future of these and other species is closely tied to the future of sagebrush. Yet this important ecosystem has already been affected by fire, invasive species, land use conversion, and now, climate change. In the western U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing. However, there is currently a limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush. Current methods suffer from a range of weakness that limits the reliability of results. In fact, the current uncertainty...
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These datasets provide early estimates of 2024 fractional cover for exotic annual grass (EAG) species and one native perennial grass species on a weekly basis from April to late June. Typically, the EAG estimates are publicly released within 7-13 days of the latest satellite observation used for that version. Each weekly release contains five fractional cover maps along with their corresponding confidence maps for: 1) a group of 16 species of EAGs, 2) cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum); 3) Field Brome (Bromus arvensis); 4) medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae); and 5) Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda). These datasets were generated leveraging field observations from Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Assessment, Inventory,...
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These datasets provide early estimates of 2024 fractional cover for exotic annual grass (EAG) species and one native perennial grass species on a weekly basis from April to late June. Typically, the EAG estimates are publicly released within 7-13 days of the latest satellite observation used for that version. Each weekly release contains five fractional cover maps along with their corresponding confidence maps for: 1) a group of 16 species of EAGs, 2) cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum); 3) Field Brome (Bromus arvensis); 4) medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae); and 5) Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda). These datasets were generated leveraging field observations from Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Assessment, Inventory,...
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FY2014Although the future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which suffer from a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat change. Our goal is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain...
A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species....
Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in...
This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
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Rasters representing median raven density estimates, calculated from approximately 28,000 raven point count surveys conducted between 2009 and 2019. Estimates were the result of a Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling model, using environmental covariates on detection and abundance.
On November 4, 2016, Dr. Peter Adler, Utah State University, discussed how sagebrush sensitivity to climate change varies across the region and the strengths and weaknesses of various climate modeling approaches. Healthy big sagebrush habitat is essential for the persistence of many high value conservation species across the western US. To gain confidence in predictions of climate change impacts on existing populations of big sagebrush, a research team from Utah State University compared output from four modeling approaches, each based on very different data and assumptions. These models largely agree that rising temperatures will decrease sagebrush cover and biomass in the warmest portions of the region, but increase...
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These datasets provide early estimates of 2023 fractional cover for exotic annual grass (EAG) species and one native perennial grass species on a weekly basis from May to early July. The EAG estimates are developed typically within 7-13 days of the latest satellite observation used for that version. Each weekly release contains four fractional cover maps along with their corresponding confidence maps for: 1) a group of 16 species of EAGs, 2) cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum); 3) medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae); and 4) Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda). These datasets were generated leveraging field observations from Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Assessment, Inventory, and Monitoring (AIM) data plots; Harmonized...
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We combined approximately 28,000 raven point count surveys with data from more than 900 sage-grouse nests between 2009 and 2019 within the Great Basin, USA. We modeled variation in raven density using a Bayesian hierarchical distance sampling approach with environmental covariates on detection and abundance. Concurrently, we modeled sage-grouse nest survival using a hierarchical frailty model as a function of raven density as well as other environmental covariates that influence risk of failure. Raven density commonly exceeded more than 0.5 ravens per square kilometer and increased at low relative elevations with prevalent anthropogenic development and/or agriculture. Reduced sage-grouse nest survival was strongly...
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We used an individual-based plant simulation model that represents intra- and inter-specific competition for water availability, which is represented by a process-based soil water balance model. For dominant plant functional types, we quantified changes in biomass and characterized agreement among 52 future climate scenarios. We then used a multivariate matching algorithm to generate fine-scale interpolated surfaces of functional type biomass for our study area.
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These datasets provide early estimates of 2024 fractional cover for exotic annual grass (EAG) species and one native perennial grass species on a weekly basis from April to late June. Typically, the EAG estimates are publicly released within 7-13 days of the latest satellite observation used for that version. Each weekly release contains five fractional cover maps along with their corresponding confidence maps for: 1) a group of 16 species of EAGs, 2) cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum); 3) Field Brome (Bromus arvensis); 4) medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae); and 5) Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda). These datasets were generated leveraging field observations from Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Assessment, Inventory,...
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These rasters are the result of calculating the difference in Greater Sage-grouse nest survival after a simulated reduction of raven density to 0.1 ravens per square kilometer. The difference in nest survival represents spatial variation in potential to improve nest survival by reducing raven impacts. The extent of each individual raster is the extent of the field site at which sage-grouse nest observations were recorded.
    map background search result map search result map Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients Data to Support Hierarchical Models and Decision Support Maps to Guide Management of Subsidized Avian Predator Densities Estimates of Raven Impacts on Greater Sage-Grouse Nest Survival Delineated by Field Site in California, Nevada, and Idaho (2009 - 2019) Median Estimates of Raven Density in California, Nevada, and Idaho (2012 - 2019) Raven Observations near Greater Sage-Grouse Nests in the Great Basin and Bi-State Regions of the Western United States (2009 - 2019) Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2023 (ver. 8.0, June 2023) Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2024 Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2024 (ver. 1.0, April 2024) Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2024 (ver. 2.0, April 2024) Data to Support Hierarchical Models and Decision Support Maps to Guide Management of Subsidized Avian Predator Densities Estimates of Raven Impacts on Greater Sage-Grouse Nest Survival Delineated by Field Site in California, Nevada, and Idaho (2009 - 2019) Median Estimates of Raven Density in California, Nevada, and Idaho (2012 - 2019) Raven Observations near Greater Sage-Grouse Nests in the Great Basin and Bi-State Regions of the Western United States (2009 - 2019) Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Divergent climate change effects on widespread dryland plant communities driven by climatic and ecohydrological gradients Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2024 Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2024 (ver. 2.0, April 2024) Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2023 (ver. 8.0, June 2023) Early Estimates of Exotic Annual Grass (EAG) in the Sagebrush Biome, USA, 2024 (ver. 1.0, April 2024)