Filters: Tags: scenarios (X)
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For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used climate data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, Oregon State University) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington (USA) to generate a climatology or baseline. He then created future climate change scenarios using statistical downscaling to create anomalies from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO Mk3, MIROC 3.2 medres, and Hadley CM 3), each run through three CO2 emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B, and A2).
For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used the vegetation model MC1 to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget and wild fire impacts across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington using climate input data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain. The model was run from 1895 to 2100 assuming that nitrogen demand from the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values. A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use efficiency as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased. Future climate change scenarios were generated through statistical...
We quantified baseline and projected change in wildlife habitat, soil organic carbon (SOC), and water supply (recharge and runoff). For six case study watersheds we quantified the interactions of future development and changing climate on recharge, runoff and streamflow, and precipitation thresholds where dominant watershed hydrological processes shift through analysis of covariance.
Categories: Publication;
Types: Journal Citation;
Tags: California,
Climate change adaption,
Downscaled global climate models,
Ecosystem services,
Grassland,
Scenario-based simulation model projections of land use change, ecosystem carbon stocks, and ecosystem carbon fluxes for the State of California from 2001-2101 using the SyncroSim software framework, see http://doc.syncrosim.com/index.php?title=Reference_Guide for software documentation. We explored four land-use scenarios and two radiative forcing scenarios (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs) as simulated by four earth system models (i.e. climate models). Results can be used to understand the drivers of change in ecosystem carbon storage over short, medium, and long (e.g. 100 year) time intervals. See Sleeter et al. (2019) Global Change Biology (doi: 10.1111/gcb.14677) for detailed descriptions of...
We examined bird and bat mortality at a new 89-turbine windfarm constructed in an environmentally sensitive area in north-central Iowa. The windfarm became operational in November 2001. It is located in cropland between three Wildlife Management Areas (WMA's) with historically high bird use. In the past, migrant and resident waterfowl, shorebirds, raptors, and songbirds moved between the WMA's through the area now occupied by the windfarm. Studies of bird collision mortality in California and elsewhere raised concerns about the possibility of mortalities in this area. From April 15, 2003 and December 15, 2003 we searched for dead animals under 26 randomly selected turbines. Six 76.2 m by 3.0 m transects were maintained...
This data series provides tabular output from a series of modeling simulations for the State of California. The methods and results of this research are described in detail in Sleeter et al. (2019). We used the LUCAS model to project changes in ecosystem carbon balance resulting from land use and land use change, climate change, and ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire and drought. The model was run at a 1-km spatial resolution on an annual timestep. We simulated 32 unique scenarios, consisting of 4 land-use scenarios and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by 4 global climate models. For each scenario, we ran 100 Monte Carlo realizations of the model. Additional details describing the modeling effort...
Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Journal Citation;
Tags: California,
Coast Range,
Conversion threat index,
Ecoregions,
Future projections,
This paper provides a synthesis of current knowledge on the patterns, drivers, and characteristics of historical energy technology transitions. This historical evidence is then compared to the treatment of energy system dynamics in the scenario analysis on climate mitigation. The paper concludes with a discussion of generic implications for clean energy and technology innovation policy.
Invasion of exotic annual grass (EAG), such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), red brome (Bromus rubens), and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), could have irreversible degradation impact to arid and semiarid rangeland ecosystems in the western United States. The distribution and abundance of these EAG species are highly influenced by weather variables such as temperature and precipitation. We set out to develop a machine learning modelling approach using a lightGBM algorithm to predict how changes in annual and immediate past precipitation regimes impact the abundance of EAG in the study area. The predictive model primarily utilized edaphic and weather variables and a seed source proxy from previous years to...
Categories: Data;
Types: Downloadable,
GeoTIFF,
Map Service,
Raster;
Tags: Arizona,
California,
Colorado,
Ecology,
Great Basin,
For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used climate data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, Oregon State University) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington to generate a climatology or baseline. He then created future climate change scenarios using statistical downscaling to create anomalies from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO Mk3, MIROC 3.2 medres, and Hadley CM 3), each run through three CO2 emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B, and A2).
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: California,
Magnitude 7,
ShakeMap,
scenarios
The provision of both electrical and mechanical energy services can play a critical role in poverty alleviation for the almost two billion rural users who currently lack access to electricity. Distributed generation using diesel generators remains a common means of electricity provision for rural communities throughout the world. Due to rising fuel costs, the need to address poverty, and consequences of global warming, it is necessary to develop cost efficient means of reducing fossil fuel consumption in isolated diesel microgrids. Based on a case study in Nicaragua, a set of demand and supply side measures are ordered by their annualized costs in order to approximate an energy supply curve. The curve highlights...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Demand,
Evaluating,
community-level,
environmental,
health,
Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use...
Categories: Project;
Types: Journal Citation;
Tags: Land use and Land cover,
Land-use threats,
Pacific Northwest,
Protected areas,
Scenarios
As technical efficiency improvement in energy use remains a touchstone measure to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, there is substantial concern about whether this approach can offset the large and expanding impacts of human actions. Critics contend that without adjustments to the prevailing consumptive lifestyle, energy efficiency improvement will generate only token reductions in GHG emissions. I address this concern by examining the extent to which technical efficiency improvement in energy use offsets the impacts of housing-related lifestyle on GHG emissions. I build from two perspectives, the physical-technical-economic models that consider energy efficiency improvement as a potent strategy to curb residential...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: creation,
energy,
energy intensive industry,
energy market,
evaluation,
The science focus of the PFLCC is to enhance conservation planning in Florida by investigating many possible trajectories of future landscape transformation. Conservation Science is prospective in nature because it examines changing assumptions, vulnerability to stressors, uncertainty and risk. These factors can be expressed as models or combined into alternative future scenarios. Based on initial efforts started with Everglades restoration, we have developed scenarios for the entire state of Florida.Through a systematic exploration at the landscape-scale, scenarios can be utilized to predict conservation opportunities or areas of conservation conflict. Scenarios are not conceived as blueprints for the future, but...
Categories: Data;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2013,
LCC,
LCC Network Science Catalog,
Peninsular Florida LCC,
Report,
This work provides a flexible and scalable framework to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC) region. This is accomplished through use of lumped parameter, physically-based, conceptual hydrologic and stream temperature models formulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This allows for model predictions of streamflow and temperature at ungaged locations and a formal accounting of model estimate uncertainty at each location, something not previously achieved in these models. These environmental models also link seamlessly with the land use and fish models. The goal for this project was to provide: 1) Estimates...
Scenarios, CLIP, and inundation modeling will be incorporated into a decision support framework to help planners and managers view the information and be able to develop management options and adaptation plans in areas where needed.
For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used climate data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, Oregon State University) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington to generate a climatology or baseline. He then created future climate change scenarios using statistical downscaling to create anomalies from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO Mk3, MIROC 3.2 medres, and Hadley CM 3), each run through three CO2 emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1B, and A2).
For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used the vegetation model MC1 to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget and wild fire impacts across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington using climate input data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain. The model was run from 1895 to 2100 assuming that nitrogen demand from the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values. A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use efficiency as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased. Future climate change scenarios were generated through statistical...
For his MS thesis, Brendan Rogers used the vegetation model MC1 to simulate vegetation dynamics, associated carbon and nitrogen cycle, water budget and wild fire impacts across the western 2/3 of the states of Oregon and Washington using climate input data from the PRISM group (Chris Daly, OSU) at a 30arc second (800m) spatial grain. The model was run from 1895 to 2100 assuming that nitrogen demand from the plants was always met so that the nitrogen concentrations in various plant parts never dropped below their minimum reported values. A CO2 enhancement effect increased productivity and water use efficiency as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased. Future climate change scenarios were generated through statistical...
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