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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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The primary objective of this project is to bring together Hawaii’s climate change scientists, Molokai’s traditional fishpond managers, and other natural resource managers to share scientific and cultural knowledge and work together as a team to identify adaptive management strategies for two of Molokai’s ancient fishponds. We will accomplish this through a short series of workshops. A secondary objective is to form new and strengthen existing partnerships so we can pool resources and better respond to climate change as an island. We will incorporate workshop results into our strategic plan for the ponds and upland areas, revise our K-6 educational curriculum, create a climate change video featuring Moloka’i kupuna,...
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We analyzed the chemical composition of wood produced by Māmane, a tropical tree growing in Hawai’i, in order to reconstruct changes in climate over the Hawaiian Islands. Specifically, we measured changes in the relative abundance of carbon and oxygen isotopes taken up by the trees during photosynthesis at high elevation sites on Mauna Kea. We found that these isotopes reflect the climatic conditions (precipitation and temperature) under which the trees lived, allowing us to reconstruct relative changes in climate extending back ~130 years. Our results indicate decadal-scale changes in precipitation that correlate well with large-scale atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns that dominate much of the Pacific....
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In the tropics, ample freshwater is the primary resource supporting thriving human and ecological communities. In the Pacific Islands, many watersheds are threatened by climate change, urban encroachment, and invasion by water-demanding exotic plant species like strawberry guava (SG). To maintain an adequate freshwater supply, adaptive management strategies are needed to address these concerns while confronting operational barriers to implementation. We developed a prototype watershed decision support tool (WDST) that incorporated: (i) distributed hydrology modeling to quantify effects of climate change and SG invasion on freshwater yield; (ii) a decision support tool that linked potential changes in yield with...
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The objective of this experimental research is to determine if genetic enrichment may enhance survival, growth, and adaptation of important native Hawaiian montane plant species to changing precipitation patterns by relocating conspecifics to more favorable climate regimes at higher elevation. We will collect the seeds of montane plants from low and high eevation sources, conduct outplanting trials in common locations along an elevation gradient, and monitor growth, survival, and vigor over a two_year period to evaluate a potential restoration strategy for mountain parklands of Mauna Kea, on the island of Hawaii.
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To anticipate how weather is likely to change as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere, geophysical and meteorological scientists examined the results of climate models on the fine scale climate patterns of Hawai’i to understand what future climate will look like. Researchers analyzed the relationship of past rainfall with global processes in order to predict future rainfall patterns. They found that the decades-long decrease in rainfall seen in arid and semiarid regions of Hawai‘i during the rainy season (November-April) is likely to continue. The model results show that all of the Hawaiian Islands get drier overall in the 21st century. Of all the islands,...
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This project will develop first-ever maps of ecosystem types (landcover) for the Mariana Islands. Native and alien plant communities will be classified and delineated using high-resolution satellite imagery, data from ground surveys, and new surveys where needed to ground-truth the classification. This effort will inform prioritization of conservation actions and will allow projection of future vegetation changes with climate change
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Islands exhibit the planet’s most unique flora and fauna, but biodiversity on islands is also vulnerable to the impending forces of global change. The Micronesian high island of Pohnpei exemplifies the diversity of oceanic islands, as it is home to the world lowest montane-cloud forest, vast mangrove forests, and 6 endemic bird species. We conducted a survey to assess the status of Pohnpei’s current bird population. We estimated detection rates across elevation zones, habitat-specific occupancy rates for 13 species, and habitat specific densities for 10 species. We coupled results with data from previous surveys to assess the potential impacts of vegetation change on Pohnpei avifauna during the last three decades....
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In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species...
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Expansion of deadly, mosquito-borne bird diseases such as avian malaria into Hawaiʽi’s high elevation forests as a result of global warming is one of the most significant threats facing the state’s rare native forest birds. Few practical options for control of disease-carrying mosquitoes over large landscapes are available, however. The best hope for remaining species of native birds may be the development of tolerance or resistance to this introduced disease. Therefore, understanding how tolerance and resistance evolve and developing ways to speed this process may be good proactive strategies for addressing impacts of climate change. We evaluated ways to rapidly measure a bird’s natural immunity with the hope that...
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Past analysis has shown that temperature-dependent avian malaria is likely to reduce overall available Hawaiian forest bird habitat with temperature increases. We used a comprehensive database of forest bird sightings (over 42,000 points), the most up to date regional climate projections and state-of-the-art ensemble species distribution models to project shifts in distribution of all Hawaiian forest bird species due to climate change. Our results show that all forest bird species are expected to suffer large range losses by end of this century with single island endemics at a greater risk than more widespread species. Because most species require structurally complex forest habitat that may take decades to develop,...
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The specific objectives of this contract are to identify and categorize key differences and similarities between islands and continental systems that are relevant to achieving sustainable landscapes/seascapes at regional scales; to develop a conservation framework that integrates planning processes for both terrestrial and marine resources that is consistent with the LCC Network Vision and Mission, and that connects landscape conservation design efforts for islands and mainland LCCs and to develop LCD guidelines, definitions, and goals appropriate for islands that are consistent with the SIAS metrics for LCD.
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HaleNet, the climate network on Haleakalā, Maui, is unique in Hawai‘i for its coverage of highly diverse environments, range different climate variables monitored, high temporal resolution, and longterm record. As the record length has grown and climate change has begun to affect Hawai‘i, the value of maintaining and improving this vital network has increased. Support is needed to continue operation and maintenance, replace aging sensors, data loggers, communication equipment, and support structures, and conduct data management and analysis tasks. The overarching goal of this project is to ensure continued operation and maintenance of the HaleNet system, including field operations, equipment maintenance and replacement,...
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Traditional Ecological Knowledge, or TEK, is “a cumulative body of knowledge, practice and belief, evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission, about the relationships of living beings (including humans) with one another and with their environments.” With support from the PICCC, scientists at the University of Hawai’i Mānoa have undertaken research that is documenting baseline Traditional Ecological Knowledge for Ka’upulehu, in the north Kona region of Kekaha on Hawai‘i Island. This focused on biological and cultural resources most valued by the community, the challenges they face, and potential coping mechanisms. Through a series of workshops, investigators partnered...
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One of the impacts of global climate change for the Hawaiian Islands is a projected increase in sea level of about one meter by the year 2100. This change will impact both biological and cultural resources located along the coastline. Few intact native coastal and lowland plant communities remain in Hawai’i. Many of those that remain contain listed endangered species and provide important habitat for other species such as seabirds, shorebirds, and native invertebrates. Where upslope habitats are available, some coastal plant communities may be able to migrate in response to sea level rise. However, in sites that have no upslope opportunities due to habitat modification by human development, the species and communities...
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Human effects on the global climate system, principally through changing the atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, are expected to lead to significant warming and other associated changes in the climate worldwide. Human-induced climate changes are likely already observable in quantities such as the global mean temperature, and over the next century can be expected to include significant effects on the local environment in Hawaii and other Pacific Islands. The currently available climate change projections from global coupled atmosphere/ocean models, as summarized for example in the recent IPCC assessment reports, have very limited direct application to Hawaii or other Pacific islands,...
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Pelagic seabirds (albatrosses and petrels) find food by relying on distinct oceanographic features like transition zones, upwelling, and large eddies. These oceanographic features change intensity, distribution, and duration during El Niño/La Niña events resulting in poor breeding performance in seabirds. Climate models predict that these perturbations will last longer, be more variable, and in some cases, cause major shifts in oceanographic regimes. We analyzed our decade-­‐long dataset of tracked Laysan and black-­‐footed albatrosses (N = 192 individual trips) the breed in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands to investigate the mechanistic role that oceanography plays in affecting the foraging distributions and its...
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This study focused on sensitivity of high-elevation ecosystems in Hawai‘i to climate change. These Hawaiian ecosystems are becoming warmer and drier, and are relevant because they house many rare species, represent the last remaining stretches of uninvaded landscapes, and include wao akua – the small-statured cloud forests of great cultural significance that are the ‘realm of the gods’. Rapid climate change here presents a disproportionately high climate change impact risk. We provided models that relate current, past, and future distribution of plant species from 6000 – 7500’ feet in elevation on Haleakalā, to mean climate, extreme drought events, and soil properties. We constructed 24 models of current vegetation...
    map background search result map search result map Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change Learning from Traditional Ecological Knowledge to understand Climate Change Impacts and Preserve Key Cultural and Natural Resources in Ka'upulehu, Hawaii Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Impacts of sea level rise on native plant communities and associated cultural sites in coastal areas of the main Hawaiian Islands Landcover mapping in the Mariana Islands as a baseline for evaluating future climate change effects Moloka`i Climate Collaboration: Bridging Climate Science and Traditional Culture Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Effects of Landscape Change on Island Birds Moloka`i Climate Collaboration: Bridging Climate Science and Traditional Culture Facilitating Adaptation in Montane Plants to Changing Precipitation along an Elevation Gradient Reconstructing past Hawaiian precipitation using stable carbon isotope analysis of Māmane trees Immunological Markers for Tolerance to Avian Malaria: Tools for Identifying Disease-Tolerant Individuals for Translocations and Captive Propagation A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Learning from Traditional Ecological Knowledge to understand Climate Change Impacts and Preserve Key Cultural and Natural Resources in Ka'upulehu, Hawaii Landcover mapping in the Mariana Islands as a baseline for evaluating future climate change effects Development of an integrated, island-relevant concept of Landscape Conservation Design for the LCC network High Resolution Dynamical Projections of Climate Change for Hawaii and Other Pacific Islands Climate Change Impacts on Critical Ecosystems in Hawai‘i and US Pacific Islands Territories Future Distribution of Cloud Forests and Associated Species in Hawaii A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for native Hawaiian plants Impacts of sea level rise on native plant communities and associated cultural sites in coastal areas of the main Hawaiian Islands Shifting Hawaiian forest bird distribution under climate change and the need to consider novel conservation strategies Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change