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A groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool (GW-NDST) for wells in Wisconsin was developed to assist resource managers with assessing how legacy and possible future nitrate leaching rates, combined with groundwater lag times and potential denitrification, influence nitrate concentrations in wells (Juckem et al. 2024). The GW-NDST relies on an ensemble of calibrated parameters to make nitrate predictions and to estimate the uncertainty of those predictions. This data release contains all of the calibrated parameter files required to run the tool. The files are packaged in a single ZIP file. To run the tool, the ZIP package needs to be downloaded and extracted within the pest/ies_parameter_ensembles/ subdirectory...
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Prescribed burning – planned, controlled fires conducted under weather and fuel conditions designed for safety and effectiveness – is a common practice used to maintain and restore native prairies in the Northern Great Plains. However, climate change will affect the number of days in a year, and when, suitable conditions for prescribed fires occur. For instance, warmer temperatures may shift these “good prescribed-fire days” earlier in the spring and later in the fall, but uncertainty about future climate makes it hard to predict how large shifts will be and if the number of good fire days each year will generally increase or decrease. Further, it’s hard to know whether prescribed fires will continue to achieve...
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
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Under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) must evaluate the status of at-risk plants and animals in the U.S. A Species Status Assessment (SSA) is a scientific assessment prepared for each at-risk species to help inform a range of management decisions under the Endangered Species Act. SSA’s are currently needed for more than 350 species, 250 of which are in the Southeast region alone. These species are threatened by several stressors including urbanization, loss of habitat, changes in streamflow and water quality, climate variability, and climate change. As part of the SSA process, teams must identify and assess risks to species or their habitat from changing climate, hydrology,...
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
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Water availability in the upper Rio Grande Basin is dependent on winter and monsoon season precipitation. Consecutive years of drought and above average temperatures have diminished water supply and increased demand for water in this region. The increasing gap between water supply and demand is cause for concern. Climate projections for the southwestern and south central United States suggest that temperatures will continue to increase, affecting seasonal precipitation and water availability. To better manage current water supply and prepare for possible future changes, water managers need projections of future streamflow and landscape conditions that may affect future water supply. The project researchers are...
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A Groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool (GW-NDST) for wells in Wisconsin was developed to assist resource managers with assessing how legacy and possible future nitrate leaching rates, combined with groundwater lag times and potential denitrification, influence nitrate concentrations in wells (Juckem et al. 2024). Running and using the GW-NDST software involves downloading the software code (version 1.1.0) from the code repository (https://doi.org/10.5066/P13ETB4Q), downloading GIS data for the machine learning support models (child data release "GIS files required to run the Groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool for Wisconsin"), downloading the parameter uncertainty file (child data release "Parameter ensemble...
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This data release contains the models and their inputs and outputs needed to reproduce the findings for the publication by Soong and Over (2022), "Effect of Uncertainty of Discharge Data on Uncertainty of Discharge Simulation for the Lake Michigan Diversion, Northeastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana." These data were developed in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District, for the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting program. Data are provided in four zip files and one MS Word file. The MS Word file 4.ReadMe.HSPF_Recalibrations_with_17TimeSeriesPairs.docx documents the recalibration of the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) model with discharge time series pairs that characterize...
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These data were created as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coastal Services Center’s efforts to create an online mapping viewer depicting potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation’s coastal areas. The purpose of the mapping viewer is to provide coastal managers and scientists with a preliminary look at sea level rise (slr) and coastal flooding impacts. The viewer is a screening-level tool that uses nationally consistent data sets and analyses. Data and maps provided can be used at several scales to help gauge trends and prioritize actions for different scenarios. The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer may be accessed at: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/slr.These...
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Aerial photographs of the Yampa and Little Snake Rivers acquired in 1954 and 1961 were used to examine channel changes occurring along these two rivers during this time period. In addition, these data were used to develop and test a generalizable new approach to characterizing the uncertainty associated with analyses of channel change based on time series of remotely sensed data, which we term the Spatially Distributed Probabilistic (SDP) method. This technique accounts for errors introduced during: 1) image co-registration and geo-referencing; 2) interpreting the location of the channel boundary; and 3) digitizing the channel boundary. The method provides a probability distribution of channel locations and can...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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We routinely encounter uncertainty when we make decisions – from picking a new morning coffee to choosing where to live. Even decisions that are supported by science contain some level of remaining uncertainty. In the context of conservation and wildlife management, the potential for uncertainty to influence decisions is perhaps most obvious when we think about predicting how actions (or non-actions) will have lasting impacts into the future. Our abilities to precisely predict future climatic and ecological conditions and determine the exact consequences of our actions are, and will remain, limited. Conservation practitioners and land and wildlife managers must navigate these challenges to make science-informed...
    map background search result map search result map Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington NOAA Sea Level Rise Data Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Aerial photographs from the Yampa and Little Snake Rivers in northwest Colorado used to characterize channel changes occurring between 1954 and 1961 Data to support a Groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool for Wisconsin Models, Inputs, and Outputs for Estimating the Uncertainty of Discharge Simulations for the Lake Michigan Diversion Using the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN Model Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Parameter ensemble files required to run the Groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool for Wisconsin Aerial photographs from the Yampa and Little Snake Rivers in northwest Colorado used to characterize channel changes occurring between 1954 and 1961 Models, Inputs, and Outputs for Estimating the Uncertainty of Discharge Simulations for the Lake Michigan Diversion Using the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN Model Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Data to support a Groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool for Wisconsin Parameter ensemble files required to run the Groundwater Nitrate Decision Support Tool for Wisconsin NOAA Sea Level Rise Data Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin Climate Effects on Prescribed Fire Implementation and Efficacy in Northern Mixed-Grass Prairie Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington