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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
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The Museum of Northern Arizona will leverage tools previously developed through its Springs Stewardship Initiative to help resource managers in the southwestern U.S. collect, analyze, report upon, monitor and archive the complex and inter-related information associated with springs and spring-dependent species in the region. Building upon those past efforts, the project will include compilation of existing springs-related information to make the information more readily available online and further development of interactive online maps and climate change risk assessment tools of springs-dependent sensitive plant and animal species. This project builds on an effort funded in FY 2013 to complete similar work for...
This project integrates fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors). Anticipated products include: 1) maps (digital and hard copy) of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, CA, CA-Southern, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags...
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Natural resource managers are confronted with the pressing challenge to develop conservation plans that address complex ecological and societal needs against the backdrop of a rapidly changing climate. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) provide valuable information that helps guide management and conservation actions in this regard. An essential component to CCVAs is understanding adaptive capacity, or the ability of a species to cope with or adjust to climate change. However, adaptive capacity is the least understood and evaluated component of CCVAs. This is largely due to a fundamental need for guidance on how to assess adaptive capacity and incorporate this information into conservation planning...
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Invasive species have increasingly severe consequences for ecosystems and human communities alike. The ecological impacts of invasive species are often irreversible, and include the loss of native species and the spread of disease. Implications for human communities include damaged water transportation systems, reduced crop yields, reduced forage quality for livestock, and widespread tree death - which can lead to increases in wildfire and loss of biodiversity. Changing climate conditions may facilitate the spread of invasive species, making this a key management and conservation concern across the United States. This project will synthesize what we know about how climate change impacts the spread of invasive...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
The goal of this project is to create critically needed coastal fog datasets. Anticipated products from the collaboration between on-the-ground natural resource managers and a multidisciplinary coalition of physical scientists are: 1) a compilation of existing fog related data from multiple sources: satellite (AVHRR, GOES, Modis, Landsat), NOAA buoy , and airport and meteorological stations, 2) USGS Open File report documenting the results of a multiday working session with climatologists, remote sensing specialists, fog modelers, statisticians, and natural resource managers, convened to review the data, examine and assess the correlations between data streams and models, specify initial parameters to be extracted...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, California coast, Coastal, Coastal, All tags...
This project uses bottom-up modeling at a parcel scale to measure the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems and tidal salt marshes. At selected tidal marshes, the project team will measure several parameters that will be incorporated into ArcGIS models creating comparable datasets across the Pacific coast tidal gradient with a focus on 2-4 sites in the California LCC (e.g. San Diego, San Francisco Bay Refuges). The ultimate goal is to provide science support tools for local adaptation planning from the bottom-up that may be implemented under a structured decision-making framework.Science Delivery Phase (2013): The objectives are to: (1) Disseminate site-specific baseline data and modeling results,...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, CA-Northern, All tags...
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
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Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Shapefile; Tags: 2011, 2011, 2012, 2012, 2013, All tags...
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Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified...
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Native Americans are one of the most vulnerable populations to climate change in the United States because of their reliance upon the natural environment for food, livelihood, and cultural traditions. In the Southwest, where the temperature and precipitation changes from climate change are expected to be particularly severe, tribal communities may be especially vulnerable. Through this project, researchers sought to better understand the climate change threats facing the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe of northwestern Nevada. Researchers found that the Tribe’s vulnerability to climate change stems from its dependence on Pyramid Lake, which may experience reduced water supply in the future. This will potentially have negative...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CASC, Completed, Federal, Fish, All tags...
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Climate change is expected to alter the distributions and community composition of stream fishes in the Great Lakes region in the 21st century, in part as a result of altered hydrological systems (stream temperature, streamflow, and habitat). Resource managers need information and tools to understand where fish species and stream habitats are expected to change under future conditions. Fish sample collections and environmental variables from multiple sources across the United States Great Lakes Basin were integrated and used to develop empirical models to predict fish species occurrence under present-day climate conditions. Random Forests models were used to predict the probability of occurrence of 13 lotic fish...
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The bull trout, listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act, is well adapted to the cold waters of the Northwest. Recent changes in climate have caused winter flooding and warmer summer water temperatures in the region, reducing the cold-water habitats that bull trout depend on. The southernmost bull trout populations, found in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada, are currently restricted to small reserves where the coldest waters still exist. These shrinking habitats have created a severed environment being further split by dams, poor water quality, and invasive species. The goal of this project was to determine how these factors threaten the species regionally by using predictions of stream...
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The Mediterranean ecosystems of southern California are some of the most ecologically diverse systems in the world. The diversity of plants and animals, as well as high rates of endemism, make the area a biodiversity hotspot. High diversity in plant and animal species contributes greatly to the health and productivity of ecosystems, and plays an important role in the local and state economy (e.g. tourism, food crops, etc.). San Diego County's complex topography, highly variable precipitation and climate play a large role in determining the biology of the region. Changing temperatures and precipitation patterns due to climate change would alter the region's climate and add to other stressors such as habitat fragmentation...
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The north-central region of the U.S. has experienced a series of extreme droughts in recent years, with impacts felt across a range of sectors. For example, the impacts of a 2002 drought are estimated to have resulted in a $3 billion loss to the agricultural sector in Nebraska and South Dakota. Meanwhile, the ecological impacts of drought in the region have included increased tree mortality, surges in the outbreak of pests, and intensifying forest fires. Located within this region is the Missouri River Basin, an important agricultural production area home to approximately 12 million people, including 28 Native American tribes. Tribal governments and multiple federal agencies manage land and natural resources in...
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Assessing the vulnerability of species or ecosystems to climate change and formulating appropriate management responses requires predictions of the exposure and sensitivity of the species or ecosystems to projected changes. This collaborative effort by the Sonoran Joint Venture, Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative, and Point Reyes Bird Observatory will develop a foundation for monitoring environmental change in the desert southwest by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts.Climate change will not have the same effects in all locations of the southwest. Some areas will change quickly (hotspots) and others will change slowly (refugia). Identifying both types of areas...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Shapefile; Tags: 2012, AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, All tags...


map background search result map search result map Rangewide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Developing tools for detecting climate change impacts on birds and their habitats in the desert southwest and northwest Mexico Foundational Science Area: Helping People and Nature Adapt to Climate Change in the North Central U.S. Developing a Geodatabase and Geocollaborative Tools to Support Springs and Springs Dependent Species Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Report: Regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Climate Change Vulnerability of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe in the Southwest Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Foundational Science Area: Helping People and Nature Adapt to Climate Change in the North Central U.S. Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Evaluating Species’ Adaptive Capacity in a Changing Climate: Applications to Natural-Resource Management in the Northwestern U.S. Climate Change Impacts on Invasive Species in the Northwest: A Synthesis and Path Forward Developing a Geodatabase and Geocollaborative Tools to Support Springs and Springs Dependent Species Rangewide Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Threatened Bull Trout The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Developing tools for detecting climate change impacts on birds and their habitats in the desert southwest and northwest Mexico Regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change Report: Regional decision support tool for identifying vulnerabilities of riverine habitat and fishes to climate change