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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
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The Wildlife Conservation Society will assess the climate change vulnerability of bird species that regularly breed in substantial populations in Alaska using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Initial work will focus on breeding birds in Arctic Alaska including shorebirds, waterfowl and waterbird species (loons, gulls, terns, jaegers), and land bird species (passerines, raptors, ptarmigan).
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There are many challenges in detecting precipitation trends in Alaska. The most substantial are the small number of observations, inhomogeneities, differences among gridded data sets, and differentiating between long-term trends and decadal variability. Analyzing both station and regional products will increase our understanding of where local trends in precipitation may differ significantly from regional trends, providing key information for developing better downscaled climate projections. These in turn, will provide insight into fine scale heterogeneity in climate change that may be important in determining the stability of key habitat features, such as wetlands and insect avoidance areas. As a by-product of...
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The Beaufort Sea coast in Arctic Alaska and neighboring northern Canada has recently experienced extreme and accelerated climate change, including a dramatic reduction in summer sea ice. Human systems will likely be impacted through changes to oil industry and community infrastructure currently in place along parts of the coast, to habitat availability for harvested species such as caribou, waterbirds, and anadromous fish, to culturally important landscape elements, and to both recreational and subsistence coastal access. We used literature review and structured interviews to 1) identify current, broad interests for ongoing coastal research in the arctic, 2) identify the best mechanisms and format for communicating...
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Arey Lagoon and Island, situated on the Beaufort Sea coast just west of Barter Island and within the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), was selected as a focus site for an in-depth study of coastal processes on a regional to local scale. Arey Lagoon and adjacent areas encompass a barrier island chain, a glacially fed river and delta (Hulahula and Ogpilak Rivers) from the Brooks Range watershed, low-lying tundra with coastal wet sedge, and thermokarst lakes that all may be vulnerable to the effects of changing storm patterns in response to climate change.Analysis of historical maps and imagery showed that Arey Lagoon mainland coast, partially protected by Arey Island from the direct attack of ocean waves, was...
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To elucidate these potential “bottom up” effects of climate changes to Arctic ungulates and evaluate the trophic mismatch hypothesis, the Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ALCC), the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Teck, Inc., and the National Park Service provided funding in 2012-14 to incorporate the calving and summer range of the Western Arctic caribou herd (WAH) into an ongoing inter-agency research and monitoring effort to examine the influences of climate change on the nutrient dynamics of caribou forages. This work is leveraging existing projects on the North Slope of Alaska that are primarily funded through the USGS Changing Arctic Ecosystems Initiative. Field...
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Our overarching questions are: (1) How much of the river water and water-borne constituents (i.e. sediment, nutrients, organic matter) from the Jago, Okpilak and Hulahula rivers are coming from glacier melt? (2) How do inputs from these rivers affect the downstream ecosystems? (3) How will loss of glaciers affect these ecosystems? The study will help elucidate how inputs from glacier-dominated arctic rivers differ from unglaciated rivers, through a combination of ground work, boat work, and remote sensing. In Phase One of this study, we intend to explore the relationship between glaciers and coastal ecosystems. Our goal in this phase-one study is not to answer these questions conclusively but rather improve our...
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Using a bioclimatic envelope approach, University of Alberta investigators project how the distribution and abundance of boreal forest birds across North America will respond to different scenarios of future climate-change. Investigation emphasis is on mapping and quantifying potential range expansions of boreal bird species into Arctic and subarctic regions across Alaska and Canada. The final products demonstrate a broad continental-scale overview of potential shifts in avian distribution.
This project uses previously collected ShoreZone imagery to map nearly 1,600 km of coastline between Wales and Kotzebue. With additional mapping supported by the Arctic LCC and National Park Service, this effort will complete the Kotzebue Sound shoreline, which will be included in the state-wide ShoreZone dataset. The complete ShoreZone dataset will be used to conduct a coastal hazards analysis and create maps that identify areas undergoing rapid coastal erosion and areas that are sensitive to inundation by storm surge and sea level rise.​
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This project provides a better understanding how linkages among surface-water availability, connectivity, and temperature mediate habitat and trophic dynamics of the Fish Creek Watershed (FCW). These interrelated processes form a shifting mosaic of freshwater habitats across the landscape that can be classified, mapped, understood, and modeled in response to past and future climate and land-use change in a spatial and temporal context. Developing scenarios of freshwater habitat change in this context provides managers and scientists with a flexible template to evaluate a range of potential responses to climate and land-use change. Applying this approach in the FCW is made feasible because of the availability of...
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, DYNAMIC VEGETATION/ECOSYSTEM MODELS, Datasets/Database, Federal resource managers, All tags...
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We assessed change in the seasonal timing of insect emergence from tundra ponds near Barrow, Alaska over a four-decade timespan, and explored factors that regulate this significant ecological phenomenon. The early-summer pulse of adult insects emerging from myriad tundra ponds on the Arctic Coastal Plain is an annual event historically coincident with resource demand by tundra-nesting avian consumers. Asymmetrical changes in the seasonal timing of prey availability and consumer needs may impact arctic-breeding shorebirds, eiders, and passerines. We have found evidence of change in the thermal behavior of these arctic wetlands, along with a shift in the phenology of emerging pond insects. Relative to the 1970s, tundra...
In Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and weather, have resulted in risks to human lives, infrastructure damage, threats to valuable natural resources, and disruption of hunting, fishing, and livelihoods.Leaders from the Aleutians to the Chukchi Sea came together for a series of Coastal Resilience and Adaptation Workshops, spearheaded by three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. Tribal leaders, resource managers, community planners, and scientists explored strategies to adapt to these unprecedented changes.The workshop series brought together 14 Organizing Partners 34 Tribes, 15 State & Federal Agencies, and a total of more than 200 participants to meet in four regional...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE INDICATORS, CLIMATE INDICATORS, All tags...
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This project used historical climate records for Alaska and Western Canada to identify patterns in temperature and precipitation reflecting the distribution of biomes seen across this region today. These climate-biome models used downscaled climate data to help identify areas which were most vulnerable to change, and areas of “refugia” where the temperature and precipitation conditions will be most similar to what they are today. The results may help managers, landscape planners, conservationists and others; understand how dramatically the temperature and precipitation patterns are expected to change.
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The primary goal of this project was to predict climate-related changes in the timing and duration of insect prey availability for arctic-breeding shorebirds. Researchers coordinated closely with the Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network, whose collaborators sampled aquatic insect emergence, terrestrial insect activity, and associated environmental data at sites across arctic Alaska and Canada. Using ASDN data, they developed mathematical models that relate the timing and duration of insect emergence and activity to accumulated temperature, weather, and other environmental variables. They used these models to predict future changes in the timing of arctic insect availability based on climate change projections....
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If current trends continue, Brooks Range glaciers will disappear over the next century, affecting stream flow regimes, riparian areas, and deltas. In turn, changes in stream habitat will impact local fisheries and the subsistence users who depend on them. To better understand glacier-climate interactions, researchers from the University of Alaska’s Institute of Northern Engineering monitored glaciers in the Hulahula watershed from 2010 through 2014. Their work extended the 50-year mass balance (annual difference between accumulation and loss of material) record for McCall Glacier and initiates investigations of Esetuk Glacier. By integrating the study of the McCall Glacier with long-term research on the impacts...
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The Shorebird Demographic Network is an international collaboration designed to evaluate how climate mediated changes in the arctic ecosystem are affecting shorebird distribution, ecology, and demography. The main purpose of the network is to monitor demographic parameters (e.g. nest success, adult survival) of widely distributed shorebirds, so that we may develop conservation strategies that tackle the most pressing problems facing these declining species. The Arctic LCC contribution adds monitoring components that track key environmental attributes (e.g. water and prey availability) that are expected to link climate with changing shorebird populations.This project attempted to evaluate portions of two conceptual...
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The Integrated Ecosystem Model for Alaska project (IEM) uses down-scaled climate models as the drivers of ecosystem change to produce forecasts of future fire, vegetation, permafrost and hydrology regimes at a resolution of 1km. This effort is the first to model ecosystem change on a statewide scale, using climate change input as a major driving variable. The objectives of the IEM project are as follows; to better understand and predict effects of climate change and other stressors on landscape level physical and ecosystem processes, and to provide support for resource conservation planning.The IEM will provide resource managers with a decision support tool to visualize future landscapes in Alaska. Model outputs...


    map background search result map search result map Modeling Barrier Island Lagoon System Response to Projected Arctic Warming Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Long-term Monitoring of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Glaciers and Rivers in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska ASDN: a Network of Sites to Evaluate How Climate-mediated Change in the Arctic Ecosystem are Affecting Shorebird Distribution, Ecology, and Demography Changing Seasonality of Invertebrate Food Resources across the Arctic Coastal Plain Evaluating the 'Bottom Up' Effects of Changing Habitats: Climate Changes, Vegetative Phenology, and the Nutrient Dynamics of Ungulate Forages Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada (COPY) Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Integrating studies of glacier dynamics and estuarine chemistry in the context of landscape change in the Arctic Refuge Predicting Future Potential Biomes for Alaska Climate effects on Arctic Food Resources: Modeling the Timing and Duration of Aquatic Insect Emergence from Tundra Ponds Modeling avifaunal responses to climate change in North America's boreal-Arctic transition zone Modeling Barrier Island Lagoon System Response to Projected Arctic Warming Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Long-term Monitoring of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Glaciers and Rivers in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Integrating studies of glacier dynamics and estuarine chemistry in the context of landscape change in the Arctic Refuge Changing Seasonality of Invertebrate Food Resources across the Arctic Coastal Plain FishCAFE: Response of an Arctic Freshwater Ecosystem to Climate and Land-use Change Evaluating the 'Bottom Up' Effects of Changing Habitats: Climate Changes, Vegetative Phenology, and the Nutrient Dynamics of Ungulate Forages Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records Predicting Future Potential Biomes for Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Integrated Ecosystem Model (AIEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada (COPY) ASDN: a Network of Sites to Evaluate How Climate-mediated Change in the Arctic Ecosystem are Affecting Shorebird Distribution, Ecology, and Demography Climate effects on Arctic Food Resources: Modeling the Timing and Duration of Aquatic Insect Emergence from Tundra Ponds Modeling avifaunal responses to climate change in North America's boreal-Arctic transition zone