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Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12919/abstract;jsessionid=64EF530762E939D509B9B308CD377394.f03t04): Anthropogenic climate change has altered temperate forest phenology, but how these trends will play out in the future is controversial. We measured the effect of experimental warming of 0.6–5.0 °C on the phenology of a diverse suite of 11 plant species in the deciduous forest understory (Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA) in a relatively warm year (2011) and a colder year (2013). Our primary goal was to dissect how temperature affects timing of spring budburst, flowering, and autumn leaf coloring for functional groups with different growth habits, phenological niches, and xylem anatomy....
We integrated experimental and natural gradient field methods to investigate effects of climate change and variability on flowering phenology of 11 subalpine meadow shrub, forb, and graminoid species in Gunnison County, Colorado (USA). At a subalpine meadow site, overhead electric radiant heaters advanced snowmelt date by 16 d and warmed and dried soil during the growing season. At three additional sites, a snow removal manipulation advanced snowmelt date by 7 d without altering growing season soil microclimate. We compared phenological responses to experimental climate change with responses to natural microclimate variability across spatial gradients at small and landscape scales, as well as across a temporal gradient...