Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Southeast CASC > FY 2013 Projects > Modeling Future Temperature and Precipitation for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Caribbean > Approved Products ( Show direct descendants )
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The global increases in surface air temperature are the most widespread and direct consequence of anthropogenic climate change. However, while 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in the Caribbean, the low variability and high average temperatures suggest that impacts on ecosystems and water resources are more likely through changes to the availability, timing, and pattern of moisture. The lack of local-scale climate model information that can resolve the complex topography and small scale climate features hinders the development of robust adaptation strategies. The goal of this project was to develop a suite of local-scale climate projections using dynamic downscaling to aid the development of adaptation...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0182.1): The potential ecological and economic effects of climate change for tropical islands were studied using output from 12 statistically downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) taking Puerto Rico as a test case. Two model selection/model averaging strategies were used: the average of all available GCMs and the average of the models that are able to reproduce the observed large-scale dynamics that control precipitation over the Caribbean. Five island-wide and multidecadal averages of daily precipitation and temperature were estimated by way of a climatology-informed interpolation of the site-specific downscaled climate model output. Annual...
Abstract (from International Journal of Climatology): The weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and a combination of the regional spectral model (RSM) and the Japanese Meteorological Agency Non‐Hydrostatic Model (NHM) were used to dynamically downscale selected CMIP5 global climate models to provide 2‐km projections with hourly model output for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Two 20‐year time slices were downscaled for historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) periods following RCP8.5. Projected changes to mean and extreme temperature and precipitation were quantified for Holdridge life zones within Puerto Rico and for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The evaluation reveals a persistent cold bias for...
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