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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > Midwest CASC > FY 2020 Projects > Understanding and Forecasting Potential Recruitment of Lake Michigan Fishes ( Show direct descendants )

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_ScienceBase Catalog
__National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
___Midwest CASC
____FY 2020 Projects
_____Understanding and Forecasting Potential Recruitment of Lake Michigan Fishes
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Elucidating physical transport phenologies in large lakes can aid understanding of larval recruitment dynamics. Here, we integrate a series of climate, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion models to: (1) simulate hatch and transport of fish larvae throughout an illustrative large lake, (2) evaluate patterns of historic and potential future climate-induced larval transport, and (3) consider consequences for overlap with suitable temperatures and prey. Simulations demonstrate that relative offshore transport increases seasonally, with shifts toward offshore transport occurring earlier during relatively warm historic and future simulations. Intra- and inter-annual trends in transport were...
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Data files contain the simulated mean daily environmental conditions experienced by particles (which can be assumed to be planktonic larval alewife or yellow perch) in Lake Michigan during March 15 - July 31 of past and future years. Simulations were generated by integrating a series of climatic, hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, and Lagrangian particle dispersion (LPD) models. For each year, 42,765 particles (i.e., each representing a theoretical larval fish) were released from coastal and nearshore locations and tracked sub-hourly for 50-days following their release. Each year's dataset summarizes individual particle experiences (e.g., light, zooplankton prey, temperature) into daily averages.
Individual adult fish can produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die in the first weeks of life. Environmental changes that lead to even small changes in early life survival can have a disproportionate impact on the number of fish that survive and ultimately support fisheries. Lake Michigan supports valuable recreational and commercial fisheries that can fluctuate with how well fish survive in early life. Statistical models have revealed linkages between survival and climate characteristics, such as water temperature, but the exact mechanisms remain unclear and how future climate will affect the survival of young fish is highly uncertain. We integrated a series of models to investigate how climate variability...
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Data files contain simulated mean, daily, offshore, water temperatures for 20 vertical depths (ranging 4 to 159 m below the surface) for 9 years in the 2040s (2041-2049) and nine years in the 2090s (2091-2099) at two sites in Lake Michigan. One site is located in the northern basin where the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been maintaining a weather buoy since 1979 (buoy 45002: 45.344, -86.411). The other site is located in the southern basin where NOAA has been maintaining a weather buoy since 1981 (buoy 45007: 42.674, -87.026). Simulated water temperatures were generated by integrating atmospheric and hydrodynamic models.


    map background search result map search result map Simulations of larval fish transport and environmental conditions in Lake Michigan Forecasted water temperature in offshore Lake Michigan from 2041-2049 and 2091-2099 Forecasted water temperature in offshore Lake Michigan from 2041-2049 and 2091-2099 Simulations of larval fish transport and environmental conditions in Lake Michigan