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The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10 km grid resolution which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries to dynamically downscale two general circulation models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The downscaled regional climate change projections were developed for two twenty-year timeslices for the high Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenario, RCP8.5. These climate change projections were developed to provide information about climate change for various climate change applications within Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. In particular, the model output parameters were saved in response to...
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Policy-relevant flood risk modeling must capture interactions between physical and social processes to accurately project impacts from scenarios of sea level rise and inland flooding due to climate change. Here we simultaneously model urban growth, flood hazard change, and adaptive response using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) version 3 framework (Sanchez et al., 2023). FUTURES is an open source urban growth model designed to address the regional-scale ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization; it is one of the few land change models that explicitly captures the spatial structure of development in response to user-specified scenarios. We present probabilistic land change projections...
Tags: Alabama,
Arkansas,
Climate migration,
Florida,
Georgia, All tags...
Kentucky,
Land Use Change,
Land use change,
Louisiana,
Mississippi,
North Carolina,
Projection,
Scenario,
Scenario-based land change modeling,
South Carolina,
Southeast,
Tennessee,
Texas,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
Urban growth,
Urbanization,
environment,
society, Fewer tags
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While 21st century temperatures are projected to increase in Puerto Rico and the broader U.S. Caribbean (whose geography is contained within the Caribbean Landscape Conservation Cooperative, or CLCC), the low variability and already high annual average temperatures suggest that the largest climate-related impact on ecosystems and water resources is more likely to be through changes in the timing, pattern, and availability of moisture. The development of adaptation strategies that respond to anthropogenic climate change for the CLCC, and particularly for Puerto Rico, is currently hindered by the lack of local-scale climate scenarios that resolve the complex topographical and meso-scale climate features that will...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2013,
CASC,
Completed,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
Landscapes,
Landscapes,
Other Landscapes,
Other Landscapes,
Projects by Region,
Science Tools for Managers,
Science Tools for Managers,
Southeast,
Southeast CASC, Fewer tags
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Arguably the most direct, intense, and long-lasting modification that humans can make to a landscape is converting rural lands to urbanized areas. As human populations grow, the demand for urbanized areas will increase, and scientists can help natural resource managers plan for these changes by creating models that predict potential patterns of future urbanization. The Southeast U.S. is experiencing particularly rapid population growth, as a favorable winter climate has drawn millions to the region from other areas of the country over the past several decades. However, the Southeast is also at risk from the effects of climate change, particularly along its vast coastline, where over a quarter of the region’s population...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2018,
CASC,
Completed,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Data Visualization & Tools, All tags...
Landscapes,
Landscapes,
Other Landscapes,
Other Landscapes,
Projects by Region,
Science Tools for Managers,
Science Tools for Managers,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Sea-Level Rise and Coasts,
Southeast,
Southeast CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice,
Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags
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Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat...
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