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John R Sauer

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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...
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This data product consists of a database of population change and abundance estimates for North American birds, estimated from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Data are presented for 548 species of birds in 4 spreadsheets containing trend estimates and annual indices for 2 time periods. Estimates are derived for each species using the 1 of 4 alternative models, and a cross-validation model selection procedure was used to select the best model for each species.
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This data product consists of a database of population change and relative abundance estimates for North American birds, estimated from North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. Data are presented in 6 separate spreadsheets for 2 methods of trend summary and 3 time periods for 548 species of birds. Metadata for the BBS data used to produce these estimates is available from a USGS ftp site (ftp://ftpext.usgs.gov/pub/er/md/laurel/BBS/DataFiles/). Metadata associated with this data product provides information specific to the analysis results.
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This data product provides summary information, by species, of changes in relative visibility of birds (phenology effects) through the April - July time period in which the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is conducted. Data are presented for 408 species of birds. Seasonal phenology effects are presented for selected latitudes and years, documenting changes in visibility and a variety of statistics to allow users to assess the significance of those effects. Results are presented as csv files, stored in zip files by first letter of the species common name and a single zip file containing csv files for 408 species. Links are provided to Child Items containing additional information in species-specific R...
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Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likely to occur, expressing results in terms of species persistence to help resource managers understand the long-term sustainability of bird populations.
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