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Historical and projected climate data and water balance data under three GCMs (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR) from 1980 to 2099 was used to assess projected climate change impacts in North Central U.S. We obtained required data from MACA data (https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/). Historical time period ranges from 1980 to 2005, and projected time period ranges from 2071 to 2099. The climate data includes temperature and precipitation whereas water balance data includes Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and Moisture Index (MI) estimated using Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite methods defining as Penman PET, Penman MI, Thornthwaite PET and Thornthwaite MI. Both types of MI was estimated as a ratio of...
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Determining which species, habitats, or ecosystems are most vulnerable to climate change enables resource managers to better set priorities for conservation action. To address the need for information on vulnerability, this research project aimed to leverage the expertise of university partners to inform the North Central Climate Science Center on how to best assess the vulnerability of elements of biodiversity to climate and land use change in order to inform the development and implementation of management options. Outcomes from this activity were expected to include 1) a framework for modeling vegetation type and species response to climate and land use change, 2) an evaluation of existing alternative vegetation...
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The goal of this project was to inform implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee (GYCC) Whitebark Pine (WBP) subcommittee’s “WBP Strategy” based on climate science and ecological forecasting. Project objectives were to: 1. Forecast ecosystem processes and WBP habitat suitability across the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) under alternative IPCC future scenarios; 2. Improve understanding of possible response to future climate by analyzing WBP/climate relationships in past millennia; 3. Develop WBP management alternatives; 4. Evaluate the alternatives under IPCC future scenarios in terms of WBP goals, ecosystem services, and costs of implementation; and 5. Draw recommendations for implementation...
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Researchers with the North Central Climate Science Center have made substantial progress in assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on wildlife and ecosystems across the region. Building on this progress, researchers will work with stakeholders to identify adaptation strategies and inform resource management in the areas that will be most affected by changing conditions. There are several components of this project. First, researchers will use the Department of Interior “resource briefs” as a mechanism to communicate information to resource managers on climate and land use change and their impacts to resources. These briefs will support coordinated management of ecosystems that contain public, private,...
In the previous first phase of the Impacts and Vulnerability project, we made substantial progress in assessing climate and land use change impacts across the NCCASC domain. These include: quantifying the rates of land use change in greater wildland ecosystems (GWEs), determining the extent of fragmentation in major ecosystems across GWEs, assessing climate change impacts on public, private, and tribal lands within GWEs, evaluating evaporative demands across hydroclimatic gradients of eight ecoregions across north central U.S., and predicting forest ecosystem responses to climate change. We found that rates of climate and land use change varied across the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains, as did the responses of...
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Fragmentation extent of six ecosystem types after European Settlement was analyzed using LANDFIRE data. The ecosystem types includes: Grassland, Shrubland, Conifer, Riparian, Hardwood and Sparse ecosystems. The land use change and fragmentation extents have been analyzed by delineating nine Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWEs) across NCCSC.
Abstract From: (The growth and distribution of plant species in water limited environments is often limited by the atmospheric evaporative demands which us measured in terms of potential evaporation (PET). While PET estimated by different methods have been widely used to assess vegetation response to climate change, species distribution models offer unique opportunity to compare their efficiency in predicting habitat suitability of plant species. In this study, we perform the first multi-species comparison of two widely used metrics of PET i.e., Penman-Monteith and Thornthwaite, and show how they result in similar or different on projected distribution of water limited species and potential consequences on their...
Land managers in the Pacific Northwest have reported a need for updated scientific information on the ecology and management of mixed-conifer forests east of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington. Of particular concern are the moist mixed-conifer forests, which have become drought-stressed and vulnerable to high-severity fire after decades of human disturbances and climate warming. This synthesis responds to this need. We present a compilation of existing research across multiple natural resource issues, including disturbance regimes, the legacy effects of past management actions, wildlife habitat, watershed health, restoration concepts from a landscape perspective, and social and policy concerns. We provide...
We assessed the vulnerability of ecological processes and vegetation to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains with a focus on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that climate has warmed substantially since 1900 while precipitation has increased. An index of aridity decreased until about 1980 and then increased slightly. Projected future climate indicates warming of about 3-7 degrees C by 2100 and a substantial increase in aridity, depending on climate scenario. Snow pack, soil moisture, runoff, and primary productivity are projected to decrease dramatically in summer under future climate scenarios, with snow pack and runoff declining annually. Habitat suitability for the four subalpine tree species...
Climate suitability is projected to decline for many subalpine species, raising questions about managing species under a deteriorating climate. Whitebark pine (WBP) (Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) crystalizes the challenges that natural resource managers of many high mountain ecosystems will likely face in the coming decades. We review the system of interactions among climate, competitors, fire, bark beetles, white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), and seed dispersers that make WBP especially vulnerable to climate change. A well-formulated interagency management strategy has been developed for WBP, but it has only been implemented across <1% of the species GYE range. The challenges...
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Fragmentation extent of six ecosystem types after European Settlement was analyzed using LANDFIRE data. The ecosystem types includes: Grassland, Shrubland, Conifer, Riparian, Hardwood and Sparse ecosystems. The land use change and fragmentation extents have been analyzed by delineating nine Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWEs) across NCCSC.
Abstract (from http://www.islandpress.org/book/climate-change-in-wildlands): Scientists have been warning for years that human activity is heating up the planet and climate change is under way. In the past century, global temperatures have risen an average of 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, a trend that is expected to only accelerate. But public sentiment has taken a long time to catch up, and we are only just beginning to acknowledge the serious effects this will have on all life on Earth. The federal government is crafting broad-scale strategies to protect wildland ecosystems from the worst effects of climate change. The challenge now is to get the latest science into the hands of resource managers entrusted with protecting...
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Fragmentation extent of six ecosystem types after European Settlement was analyzed using LANDFIRE data. The ecosystem types includes: Grassland, Shrubland, Conifer, Riparian, Hardwood and Sparse ecosystems. The land use change and fragmentation extents have been analyzed by delineating nine Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWEs) across NCCSC.
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In the North Central U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing, with consequences ranging from more frequent and severe wildfires to prolonged drought to widespread forest pest outbreaks. As a result, land managers are becoming increasingly concerned about how climate change is affecting natural resources and the essential services they provide communities. The rates and ecological impacts of changing conditions vary across this diverse region, which stretches from the Great Plains to the High Rockies. The goal of this project was to understand how native grasslands, shrublands, and forests will respond to changing conditions. Researchers first modeled how these vegetation types have...
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Fragmentation extent of six ecosystem types after European Settlement was analyzed using LANDFIRE data. The ecosystem types includes: Grassland, Shrubland, Conifer, Riparian, Hardwood and Sparse ecosystems. The land use change and fragmentation extents have been analyzed by delineating nine Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWEs) across NCCSC.
Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We worked with a team of biologists and managers to identify management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP. Identified actions were spatially allocated across...
Rates of climate and land use change vary across the Great Plains and Rocky Mountains as do the responses of ecosystems to these changes. Knowledge of locations of rapid land use and climate change and changes in ecosystem services such as water runoff and ecological productivity are important for vulnerability assessment and crafting locally relevant adaptation strategies to cope with these changes. This project assessed the loss of public, private, and tribal lands due to ongoing land use intensifications and fragmentation extents across the NC CSC domain. In addition, the project evaluated how the climate, ecosystem processes, and vegetation have shifted over the past half century and how they are projected to...
map background search result map search result map Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S. Science and Forecasting to Inform Implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Management Strategy Foundational Science Area: Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Land use change and fragmentation of Grand River Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Great Sand Dunes Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Rocky Mountain Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Theodore Roosevelt Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Rocky Mountain Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Great Sand Dunes Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Theodore Roosevelt Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Land use change and fragmentation of Grand River Greater Wildland Ecosystems (GWE) using LANDFIRE data Foundational Science Area: Climate Adaptation Strategies for Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Foundational Science Area: Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Wildlife and Habitats in the North Central U.S. Assessing the Vulnerability of Vegetation to Future Climate in the North Central U.S. Science and Forecasting to Inform Implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Management Strategy