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A beautiful plant found only on Haleakala may become rarer. A recent study coauthored by UH researcher Paul Krushelnycky shows changing climate patterns allowing fog and rain to reach higher elevations are threatening the plant but he cautions all is not lost. He joined us in our studio to tell us more. Paul is currently Assistant Researcher, at the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources at the University of Hawaii in Manoa.
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Assessing the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Vegetation in Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park".
This Project Snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Development of Statistical Methods to Estimate Baseline and Future Low Flow Characteristics of Ungaged Streams in Hawai`i".
This report identifies needs and opportunities in the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region relative to climate change science, management, and adaptation strategies. The region includes the territories of Guam and American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas (CNMI), and the independent states of Palau, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). This inventory is responsive to the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) Strategic Science Agenda and its articulation with the region.
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC
This Project Snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Coral reef resilience to climate change in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands".
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Modeling Climate-Driven Changes to Dominant Vegetation in the Hawaiian Islands".
This final report is for the Pacific Islands CSC funded project "Very Fine Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Past and Future Climates for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Islands of O`ahu and Kaua`i".
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC
Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-13-00202.1): Traditional long-term (decadal) and large-scale (hundreds of kilometers) shoreline change modeling techniques, known as single transect, or ST, often overfit the data because they calculate shoreline statistics at closely spaced intervals along the shore. To reduce overfitting, recent work has used spatial basis functions such as polynomials, B splines, and principal components. Here, we explore an alternative to such basis functions by using regularization to reduce the dimension of the ST model space. In our regularized-ST method, traditional ST is an end member of a continuous spectrum of models. We use an evidence information criterion...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0088.1): A comprehensive understanding of the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal patterns in cloud cover frequency over the Hawaiian Islands was developed using high-resolution image data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The Terra and Aqua MODIS cloud mask products, which provide the confidence that a given 1-km pixel is unobstructed by cloud, were obtained for the entire MODIS time series (10-plus years) over the main Hawaiian Islands. Monthly statistics were generated from the daily cloud mask data, including mean cloud cover...
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Hawaiian Seascapes and Their Management Implications".
Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
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Hawaiʻi is considered a worldwide biodiversity hotspot, with nearly 90 percent of its native plants found nowhere else in the world. However, about half of these native plants are imperiled by threats including human development, non-native species, and climate change. Through this project, scientists modeled the relative vulnerability of over 1,000 native plant species to the effects of climate change. A panel of experts in Hawaiian plant species assisted with the development of the model and verified its results. From the model, researchers were able to develop a vulnerability score for each plant species and identify categories of species with high, medium, and low vulnerability to climate change. This information...
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The beaches of the Hawaiian Islands attract nearly 9 million visitors each year, who inject around $15.6 billion into the state’s economy and support almost 200,000 jobs. Beyond their economic importance, Hawaiian beaches are also culturally and ecologically valuable. However, climate change driven sea-level rise is causing many beaches to disappear, endangering property, infrastructure, and critical habitats. The goal of this project was to develop a method for forecasting erosion-vulnerable beach areas that could be used in coastal management planning. Researchers focused on the island of Kauaʻi, modeling beach response to rising sea level over the next century and producing maps that provide information about...
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Hawaiian shorelines and near-shore waters have long been used for cultural activities, food gathering and fishing, and recreation. As seascapes are physically altered by changing climate, the ways in which people experience these environments will likely change as well. Local perspectives of how seascapes are changing over time can help managers better understand and manage these areas for both natural persistence and human use. For this project, researchers conducted interviews and surveys of surfers and other ocean users to gather observations and perceptions of change over time at Hilo Bay, Hawaiʻi. They combined these results with historical data on public beach use and biophysical data from monitoring buoys...
A new study published in Climate Change Responses by University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa researchers shows how shifting atmospheric circulation patterns that may be caused by climate change are threatening populations of the iconic silversword on Haleakalā. The native plant is found nowhere else in the world. Paul Krushelnycky of the UH Mānoa Department of Plant and Environmental Protection Sciences and his co-authors researched the effects of changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation on populations of silverswords, using 80 years of data records. The team found that Haleakalā silversword numbers have declined about 60 percent since 1990 and that this decline coincides with lower rainfall in the area,...
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach". The key goals of this project were 1) to understand how changes in the Earth’s future climate system will affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in Hawai`i, 2) to support studies of the ecological impacts of climate change on native Hawaiian plants and animals and 3) to provide information needed by natural resource managers charged with preserving native biodiversity.
This Project Snapshot provides a brief overview summary of the project "Empirical Projection of Future Shoreline Position and Inundation Due to Sea Level Rise".
The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a nation of widely dispersed, low-lying coral atolls and islands, with over 100 square miles of land area scattered across 750,000 square miles of ocean. Average elevation for the RMI is approximately 7 feet above mean sea level, but many islands and atolls are much lower. As climate change causes sea level to rise and weather patterns to shift, the Marshall Islands are increasingly having to contend with flooding and drought that damages agriculture, homes, and infrastructure. Residents are increasingly making the difficult choice to leave their home islands in the hope of a more stable future, moving within the country to larger islands or to the United States where...
This project snapshot provides a brief overview of the project "Diagnosing and Communicating the Effect of Climate Variability on Frequency of Coastal Inundation".
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The conditions of coral reefs in the Hawaiian Islands are predicted to decline significantly from climate change over the next 100 years. To better prepare for the impacts of climate change on Hawaiian reefs, the research team uses a system of models to simulate ocean waves and circulation, rainfall and storm run-off, and coral reef community dynamics through the year 2100. These models will identify reef areas that are either vulnerable or resilient to the many stressors that the future may hold for reefs. The team’s hope is that this work can identify areas that might benefit from management actions to minimize local stressors such as land-based pollution. Through a collaborative partnership with state and federal...
map background search result map search result map Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Changing Hawaiian Seascapes and Their Management Implications Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Changing Hawaiian Seascapes and Their Management Implications Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands Establishing Climate Change Vulnerability Rankings for Hawaiian Native Plants