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Strong evidence on climate change underscores the need for actions to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise. Global mean sea level may rise 0.18–0.48 m by mid-century1, 2 and 0.5–1.4 m by the end of the century2. Besides marine inundation, it is largely unrecognized that low-lying coastal areas may also be vulnerable to groundwater inundation, which is localized coastal-plain flooding due to a rise of the groundwater table with sea level. Measurements of the coastal groundwater elevation and tidal influence in urban Honolulu, Hawaii, allow estimates of the mean water table, which was used to assess vulnerability to groundwater inundation from sea-level rise. We find that 0.6 m of potential sea-level rise causes substantial...
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The GeoAdaptive and GeoDesign scenarios were extended to the state of Florida line and incorporated CLIP 3.0 into the scenarios for the ecological input. The scenarios will consist of urbanization level of 31,000,000 people by 2060 and sea level rise of 1.0m, and policies and assumptions such a build first conserve second (BAU) and conserve first build second (proactive). The type of conservation was varied; fee simple purchase and easement percentages. The first scenario had a 50/50 split between fee simple purchase and easements and the second and third scenario had 90% easement and 10% fee simple purchase. The difference in scenario was in the process of conservation (CLIP priority area 1 or Florida Forever land...
Final report for the project titled “Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i”
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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been configured as a regional climate model for the Hawaii region (HRCM) to assess the uncertainties associated with the pseudo–global warming (PGW) downscaling method using different warming increments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model experiments. Results from 15-km downscaling experiments using warming increments from 10 individual CMIP5 models for the two warming scenarios representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) are compared with experiments using multimodel mean warming increments. The results show that changes in 2-m temperatures, 10-m wind speed, rainfall, water vapor path, and trade wind...
Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management,...
Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean GIS Data
Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Final Report
Local Ecological Knowledge and Climate Change Portal housing all of the data and products produced from this project.
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We created an enduring features (EF, ecological site type, geophysical setting) dataset for Oklahoma that is similar to the EF dataset we created for Texas (see Diamond et al. 2016, Diamond and Elliott 2015, Elliott et al. 2014), . Digital soil map unit polygons (MUs), variables derived from digital elevation models (e.g. percent slope), and landform models (e.g. low, gentle slopes and flats in the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains) were combined to form this dataset. Among these, the low flats of the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains were most complicated to model because the sites had a low slope but were occupied by dry-mesic forest (in contrast to the low slope of uplands, which tended to be drier). A combination of slope...
Conservation planning, the process of deciding how to protect, conserve, enhance and(or) minimize loss of natural and cultural resources, is a fundamental process to achieve conservation success in a time of rapid environmental change. Conservation targets, the measurable expressions of desired resource conditions, are an important tool in biological planning to achieve effective outcomes. Conservation targets provide a focus for planning, design, conservation action, and collaborative monitoring of environmental trends to guide landscape-scale conservation to improve the quality and quantity of key ecological and cultural resources. It is essential to have an iterative and inclusive method to define conservation...
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Population fragmentation compromises population viability, reduces a species ability to respond toclimate change, and ultimately may reduce biodiversi ty. We studied the current state and potential causes offragmentation in grizzly bears over approximat ely 1,000,000 km of western Canada, the northern United States(US), and southeast Alaska. We compiled much of our data from projects undertaken with a variety of researchobjectives including population estimation and trend, landscape fragmentation, habitat selection, vital rates, andresponse to human development. Our prim ary analytical techniques stemmed from genetic analysis of 3,134 bears,supplemented with radiotelemetry data from 792 bears. We used 15 locus microsatellite...
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All Conservation Design Elements identified through a multi-year conservation planning effort undertaken by the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC). These elements were identified by the program Marxan as meeting collective conservation targets. Datasets include a merged design of all five elements, individual element shapefiles, and a prioritization shapefile (Conservation Design elements outlined by the NatureScape Design that were then placed into a prioritization framework based on Margulis and Pressy 2000).
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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
TheNorthSlopeofAlaskaliesonthenorthsideofBrooksRangeandincludesextensivecoastlinesalongtheChukchiSeaandBeaufortSea.TheseshorelinesarefundamentallydifferentfrommostofthecoastlineintheUSastheyareconsolidatedbypermafrostandsubjecttoperiglacialprocesses,includingcryogenicprocessesonshoreandnearshoreseasonalpackiceformation.ThesecoastsarehighlydynamicandundergoingsomeofthefastestretreatratesinNorthAmerica(GibbsandRichmondn.d.).Proposedoffshoreoildevelopmentactivitiesinthe ChukchiSeacoastandexistingoffshoredrillingislandsalongtheBeaufortSeacoastposeenvironmentalrisksforthesecoasts.Environmentalconcernsincludeincreasedairandseatraffic,accidentaloilspills,andpotentialportdevelopments.BOEMrequiresup-­‐to-­‐date,digitalmappingthatcanbeusedtosystematicallyassesstheseenvironmentalrisks.TheSh...
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The Anaktuvuk River Fire was the largest, highest-severity wildfire recorded on Alaska’s North Slope since records began in 1956. The 2007 Anaktuvuk River Fire was an order of magnitude larger than the average fire size in the historic record for northern Alaska and indices of severity were substantially higher than for other recorded tundra burns. An interdisciplinary team assessed fire effects including burn severity, potential plant community shifts, and effects on permafrost and active layers. Observers monumented, photographed, and measured 24 burned and 17 unburned reference transects, starting the year after the fire, and spanning the range of vegetation types and burn severities.
​This project takes advantage of an existing helicopter platform on St. Lawrence that will be used to collect ShoreZone imagery of the island. This project is leveraging contributions by the Oil Spill Recovery Institute, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and NOAA Fisheries to collect imagery in the summer of 2013. The ABSI LCC will provided $10K to map the highest priority section of the St. Lawrence Island coastline.The ShoreZone mapping system has been in use since the early 1980s and has been applied to more than 40,000 km of shoreline in Washington and British Columbia. Through partnerships with other agencies and organizations, portions of southeastern...
North Pacific Seabird vulnerability Assessment
map background search result map search result map Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Florida climate change, urbanization, and policy assumption scenario for conservation planning for the PFLCC. Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration North Slope Coastal Imagery Initiative NatureScape, Design Anaktuvuk River Fire Monitoring Oklahoma Enduring Features Slideshow Presentation File: Grizzly bears, fragmentation, connectivity, and management in the Canada - US trans-border region Population Fragmentation and Inter-EcosystemMovem ents of Grizzly Bears in Western Canada andthe Northern United States Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Anaktuvuk River Fire Monitoring Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Slideshow Presentation File: Grizzly bears, fragmentation, connectivity, and management in the Canada - US trans-border region Population Fragmentation and Inter-EcosystemMovem ents of Grizzly Bears in Western Canada andthe Northern United States Oklahoma Enduring Features Florida climate change, urbanization, and policy assumption scenario for conservation planning for the PFLCC. North Slope Coastal Imagery Initiative NatureScape, Design