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Extreme winter temperatures govern the northern range limit of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) in southeastern North America. There is a pressing need for studies that advance our understanding of how extreme cold temperature events affect mangroves near their range limits. However, such events are infrequent and challenging to study at regional scales. Here, we compared the damage to mangroves from extreme freeze events in 2018 and 2021, using local data from sites in USA (Florida, Louisiana, and Texas) and northeastern Mexico (Tamaulipas). In 2018, mangrove damage was concentrated in Louisiana and the upper Texas coast, where minimum temperatures ranged from -4 °C to -7 °C. In 2021, damage from a more severe...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Sea levels across the planet are rising, particularly along the eastern coast of the United States. Climate-induced sea level rise can result in the inundation and intrusion of seawater into freshwater drainages. This would alter salinity regimes and lead to the salinization of coastal freshwater ecosystems. Increased salinity levels in freshwater can negatively affect freshwater-dependent species, including native mussels belonging to the order Unionida, which are highly sensitive to changes in water quality. Sea salt is largely made up of sodium and chloride ions, forming sodium chloride, a known toxicant to freshwater mussels. However, sea salt is a mixture that also contains other major ions, including potassium,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from FireEcology) Background: Projected trajectories of climate and land use change over the remainder of the twenty-first century may result in conditions and situations that require flexible approaches to conservation planning and practices. For example, prescribed burning is a widely used management tool for promoting longer-term resilience and sustainability in longleaf pine ecosystems of the southeastern United States, but regional stressors such as climatic warming, changing fire conditions, and an expanding wildland-urban interface may challenge its application. To facilitate the development of fire management strategies that account for such changes, we surveyed nearly 300 fire managers to elicit...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Extreme streamflow is a key indicator of flood risk, and quantifying the changes in its distribution under non-stationary climate conditions is key to mitigating the impact of flooding events. We propose a non-stationary process mixture model (NPMM) for annual streamflow maxima over the central US (CUS) which uses downscaled climate model precipitation projections to forecast extremal streamflow. Spatial dependence for the model is specified as a convex combination of transformed Gaussian and max-stable processes, indexed by a weight parameter which identifies the asymptotic regime of the process. The weight parameter is modeled as a function of the annual precipitation for each of...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Nature Communications): A major challenge in articulating human dimensions of climate change lies in translating global climate forecasts into impact assessments that are intuitive to the public. Climate-analog mapping involves matching the expected future climate at a location (e.g., a person’s city of residence) with current climate of another, potentially familiar, location - thereby providing a more relatable, place-based assessment of climate change. For 540 North American urban areas, we used climate-analog mapping to identify the location that has a contemporary climate most similar to each urban area’s expected 2080’s climate. We show that climate of most urban areas will shift considerably...
Abstract (from Forestry): Higher temperatures and drought are key aspects of global change with the potential to alter the distribution and severity of many arthropod pests in forest systems. Scale insects (Hemiptera: Coccoidea) infest many tree species and are among the most important pests of trees in urban and rural forests, plantations and other forest systems. Infestations of native or exotic scale insects can kill or sicken trees with economic and ecosystem-wide consequences. Warming can have direct effects on the life history, fitness and population dynamics of many scale insect species by increasing development rate, survival or fecundity. These direct benefits can increase the geographic distribution of...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Global Change Biology): Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward‐moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold‐sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from U.S. Geological Survey): The unglaciated southeastern United States is a biodiversity hotspot, with a disproportionate amount of this biodiversity concentrated in grasslands. Like most hotspots, the Southeast is also threatened by human activities, with the total reduction of southeastern grasslands estimated as 90 percent (upwards to 100 percent for some types) and with many threats escalating today. This report summarizes the results of a multistakeholder workshop organized by the Southeastern Grasslands Initiative and the U.S. Geological Survey, held in January 2020 to provide a scientific needs assessment to help inform the Species Status Assessment (SSA) process under the U.S. Endangered Species...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from The Journal of Wildlife Management): Wildlife populations are experiencing shifting dynamics due to climate and landscape change. Management policies that fail to account for non-stationary dynamics may fail to achieve management objectives. We establish a framework for understanding optimal strategies for managing a theoretical harvested population under non-stationarity. Building from harvest theory, we develop scenarios representing changes in population growth rate () or carrying capacity () and derive time-dependent optimal harvest policies using stochastic dynamic programming. We then evaluate the cost of falsely assuming stationarity by comparing the outcomes of forward projections in which...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Wildlife conservation success depends on regional conservation efforts, but little is known about barriers and opportunities that ‘boots on the ground’ wildlife conservation practitioners face when tackling regional conservation. This study provides the first data addressing these important questions in the southeastern United States. Surveyed professionals indicated that their top priority for regional conservation efforts was increasing the likelihood of conservation success for species with multi-state ranges, followed by the need to describe threats to species and their habitats. Perhaps not surprisingly, these priority areas were also where conservation practitioners were most likely to work in regional collaborations....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Impacts of sea level rise will last for centuries; therefore, flood risk modeling must transition from identifying risky locations to assessing how populations can best cope. We present the first spatially interactive (i.e., what happens at one location affects another) land change model (FUTURES 3.0) that can probabilistically predict urban growth while simulating human migration and other responses to flooding, essentially depicting the geography of impact and response. Accounting for human migration reduced total amounts of projected developed land exposed to flooding by 2050 by 5%–24%, depending on flood hazard zone (50%–0.2% annual probability). We simulated various “what-if” scenarios and found managed retreat...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Frontiers): Small Island Nations, often comprised of Atolls, are at considerable risk of climate change impacts from sea-level rise to coral acidification to increasing cyclone intensity; understanding how they will change in the coming century is vital for climate mitigation and resiliency. However, the morphology of atolls are not well quantified or summarized. In this work, we calculate modern atoll morphometrics on a global scale including 3,786 motu and 593 reef flats on 154 atolls. Temporal composites of Landsat imagery are created for 4 years (2015–2018), and are classified into motu, reef flat, open water/lagoon via unsupervised classification. Morphometrics, including widths, lengths, and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Marine Ecology Progress Series): Heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNANs) play a pivotal role as consumers of picoplankton, remineralizers and carbon vectors, yet knowledge on how prey quantity and quality affect HNAN physiology remains limited. In a series of grazing experiments using an uncharacterized member of the HNAN assemblage, we found that growth (μ) and ingestion rate (IR) varied when offering heterotrophic bacteria (HB), Synechococcus spp. (Syn), Ostreococcus lucimarinus (Ost) or a combination of all 3 prey types. Highest average μ rates (1.8 d-1) were detected on HB at densities of ~106 cells ml-1 and maximum IR on Syn (485 pg C d-1) at ~106 cells ml-1. Independent of prey type, flagellate...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Climate Change Ecology): Predicting how species respond to changes in climate is critical to conserving biodiversity. Modeling efforts to date have largely centered on predicting the effects of warming temperatures on temperate species phenology. In and near the tropics, the effects of a warming planet on species phenology are more likely to be driven by changes in the seasonal precipitation cycle rather than temperature. To demonstrate the importance of considering precipitation-driven phenology in ecological studies, we present a case study wherein we construct a mechanistic population model for a rare subtropical butterfly (Miami blue butterfly, Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri) and use a suite...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity reduces biodiversity declines due to habitat fragmentation. Uncertainty remains, however, about the effectiveness of conservation for enhancing connectivity for multiple species on dynamic landscapes, especially over long time horizons. We forecasted landscape connectivity from 2020 to 2100 under four common conservation land-acquisition strategies: acquiring the lowest cost land, acquiring land clustered around already established conservation areas, acquiring land with high geodiversity characteristics, and acquiring land opportunistically. We used graph theoretic metrics to quantify landscape connectivity across these four strategies, evaluating connectivity for...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from International Journal of Wildland Fire): Prescribed burning is a critical tool for managing wildfire risks and meeting ecological objectives, but its safe and effective application requires that specific meteorological criteria (a ‘burn window’) are met. Here, we evaluate the potential impacts of projected climatic change on prescribed burning in the south-eastern United States by applying a set of burn window criteria that capture temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to projections from an ensemble of Global Climate Models under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Regionally, the percentage of suitable days for burning changes little during winter but decreases substantially in summer...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract: A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperative (GCPO LCC) and the Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, to evaluate the hydrologic response of a daily time step hydrologic model to historical observations and projections of potential climate and land-cover change for the period 1952–2099. The model simulations were used to compute the potential changes in hydrologic response and streamflow statistics across the Southeastern United States, using historical observations of climate and streamflow. Thirteen downscaled general circulation models with four representative concentration...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Restoration Ecology): Coastal wetland restoration can be used to offset past wetland losses and/or reduce future losses due to land‐use changes, rising sea levels, and accelerating climate change. However, there is a need for information regarding the restoration‐relevant performance of foundation species like mangrove and marsh plants, including their responses to acute and chronic stressors that can affect restoration outcomes. Mangrove encroachment and poleward range expansion into marsh, facilitated by warming winters, has provided restoration practitioners in the northern Gulf of Mexico with a new foundation plant species to consider using during restoration. To evaluate the performance of transplanted...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Journal of Economic Entomology): Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is one of the most serious forest pests in the United States. Ongoing research indicates that establishment of larval parasitoids depends upon the season-long availability of host stages susceptible to parasitism. We monitored emerald ash borer overwintering stages at 90 sites across 22 states to: 1) produce a model of the percentage of emerald ash borer overwintering as non-J larvae; 2) link that model to establishment of Tetrastichus planipennisi; and 3) explore changes to our model under climate change scenarios. Accumulated growing degree days (GDD) is an important predictor of the proportion...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
ABSTRACT There are calls from cultural resources professionals, academics, and diverse stakeholders for multivocality, co-creation of knowledge, and inclusion of local and traditional input in the management of cultural resources situated on public lands. Yet, associated communities often have little control or influence on management of their heritage sites beyond mandated consultation, particularly for archaeological sites. In a US National Park Service (NPS) context, managers are guided by standardized criteria, existing data management systems, and policy- and eligibility-based funding streams. The influences of these criteria, systems, and policies are particularly powerful when managers are prioritizing action...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation