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Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Harmful algal blooms (HABs) create issues both environmentally and economically in coastal regions, especially if algal growth is linked to the production of toxins which can affect ecosystems, wildlife, and humans. This study is the first to confirm near year-round presence and co-occurrence of microcystins (MCs) and domoic acid (DA) within the outskirts of the largest lagoonal US estuary, the Pamlico-Albemarle Sound System (PASS). Monthly sampling at a time-series location in Bogue Sound, located within the eastern part of the PASS, showed DA and MCs were commonly present and detected together 50% of the time based on an in situ toxin tracking approach over a 6-year time period (2015–2020)....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from ELSEVIER) Population persistence probability is valuable for characterizing risk to species and informing listing and conservation decisions but is challenging to estimate through traditional methods for rare, data-limited species. Modeling approaches have used citizen science data to mitigate data limitations of focal species and better estimate parameters such as occupancy and detection, but their use to estimate persistence and inform conservation decisions is limited. We developed an approach to estimate persistence using only occurrence records of the target species and citizen science occurrence data of non-target species to account for search effort and imperfect detection. We applied the...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration, and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal,...
Temperature and precipitation have been identified as factors that potentially influence eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) reproduction, but robust analyses testing the relationship between weather parameters and turkey nest success are lacking. Therefore, we assessed how weather influenced turkey daily nest survival using 8 years of data collected from 715 nests across the southeastern United States. We also conducted exploratory analyses investigating if weather conditions during or prior to nesting best predicted nest success. We then assessed the possible implications of climate change through 2041–2060 for future eastern wild turkey daily nest survival and nest success for variables determined...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change affects populations over broad geographic ranges due to spatially autocorrelated abiotic conditions known as the Moran effect. However, populations do not always respond to broad-scale environmental changes synchronously across a landscape. We combined multiple datasets for a retrospective analysis of time-series count data (5–28 annual samples per segment) at 144 stream segments dispersed over nearly 1,000 linear kilometers of range to characterize the population structure and scale of spatial synchrony across the southern native range of a coldwater stream fish (brook trout, Salvelinus fontinalis), which is sensitive to stream temperature and flow variations. Spatial synchrony differed by life stage...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Summary (from NESP Methods Brief Series): This methods brief focuses on access to recreational open space, which is a key component of mental health and wellbeing. This analysis maps the supply of publicly accessible open spaces relative to where people live. Regional priority areas for the creation of new open space through conservation are identified based on a metric representing the number of people who would benefit from new recreational open space if it were created in that area. Spatial datasets for these priority areas and associated metrics are available on ScienceBase.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Natural and working lands – forests, farmland, and wetlands – make up more than 80% of North Carolina's area and provide a variety of benefits to our communities and economy. The importance of natural and working lands has been recognized in several recent planning efforts, including the state’s Natural & Working Lands Action Plan (part of the NC Climate Risk & Resilience Plan ) and the Coastal Habitat Protection Plan 2021 Amendment (currently in draft form). These plans brought together many sources of information to help quantify the benefits we are currently getting from these lands, and additional benefits that could be created through management actions. To make this information more accessible,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from AGUpubs): Understanding the nexus between food, energy, and water systems (FEW) is critical for basins with intensive agricultural water use as they face significant challenges under changing climate and regional development. We investigate the food, energy, and water nexus through a regional hydroeconomic optimization (RHEO) modeling framework. The crop production in RHEO is estimated through a hierarchical regression model developed using a biophysical model, AquaCropOS, forced with daily climatic inputs. Incorporating the hierarchical model within the RHEO also reduces the computation time by enabling parallel programming within the AquaCropOS and facilitates mixed irrigation—rainfed, fully irrigated...
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Abstract (from Parasitology): Several bee parasites are transmitted through flowers, and some of them can infect multiple host species. Given the shared use of flowers by bee species, parasites can potentially encounter multiple host species, which could affect the evolution of parasite virulence. We used the trypanosomatid parasite Crithidia bombi and its host, the common eastern bumble bee (Bombus impatiens), to explore the effect of infecting an alternative host, the alfalfa leaf-cutter bee (Megachile rotundata), on parasite infectivity and ability to replicate. We conducted a serial passage experiment on primary and alternative hosts, assessing infectivity and intensity of infection during five passes. Parasite...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Springer) Purpose of Review: Our goal is to provide an overview of how urban heat islands affect forests and synthesize recent literature on that topic. We focused on direct effects of high temperatures from urban heat islands on forest trees and indirect effects via changes in soil moisture and pest density. We also focused on the effects of urban heat islands on arthropods with particular emphasis on tree pests. Recent Findings: Urban heat islands can push trees and arthropods closer to their thermal limits with consequences for tree growth and arthropod fitness. Urban heat islands can alter the distribution of trees and arthropods allowing species to survive at higher altitudes or latitudes than...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
An assessment of the capacity of coral reefs to grow fast enough to keep up with projected rises in sea level finds that most reefs will fall behind if nothing is done to restore them.
Longleaf pine (LLP, Pinus palustris) has been reduced to 3–5% of its original range, but may be particularly resilient to conditions associated with climate change including drought, severe storms, and increased prevalence of pests. Despite the critical role of LLP in building climate resilient ecosystems, little is known about how landscape managers in the region have considered climate change in planning efforts. We gathered 83 publicly accessible natural resource management plans from the southeastern United States that included management of LLP ecosystems between 1999 and 2016. We used document analysis to identify how plans addressed climate change threats on LLP, considered climate change in identification...
Introduction (from ncsc.edu): The southeastern United States is experiencing high rates of population growth, urbanization, land use change, and rapidly shifting climatic conditions. Collectively, these changes present considerable near and long-term challenges to the health and sustainability of the region’s fish and wildlife populations. Employing a collaborative, forward-looking conservation approach represents a key step towards addressing these challenges and was the impetus for the establishment of the Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS). SECAS consists of diverse state, federal, non-profit, and private organizations, working together to identify and coordinate shared conservation goals and...
Abstract (from PeerJ): Urban trees serve a critical conservation function by supporting arthropod and vertebrate communities but are often subject to arthropod pest infestations. Native trees are thought to support richer arthropod communities than exotic trees but may also be more susceptible to herbivorous pests. Exotic trees may be less susceptible to herbivores but provide less conservation value as a consequence. We tested the hypotheses that native species in Acer and Quercus would have more herbivorous pests than exotic congeners and different communities of arthropod natural enemies. The density of scale insects, common urban tree pests, was greatest on a native Acer and a native Quercus than exotic congeners...
Abstract (from EfD): This study develops an integrated framework to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative land use policies that target the management of natural resources in the face of climate change pressures. This framework is then applied to evaluate the relative performance of three different land use regulations that protect natural resources and alter current trends of urbanization using data from three rapidly urbanizing coastal counties in the southeastern United States facing growing risks of​ flooding. The framework developed in this study is an iterative procedure that integrates a spatially explicit econometric model of land use change, local ecosystem service delivery, and feedback mechanisms...
Abstract (from Global Ecology and Conservation): Conducting managed species translocations and establishing climate change refugia are adaptation strategies to cope with projected consequences of global warming, but successful implementation requires on-the-ground validation of demographic responses to transient climate conditions. Here we estimated the effect of nine abiotic and biotic factors on local occupancy and an index of abundance (few or chorus) for four amphibian species (Eleutherodactylus wightmanae, E. brittoni, E. antillensis, and E. coqui) in Puerto Rico, USA. We also assessed how the same factors influenced reproductive activity of E. coqui and how species responded to hurricane María (20 September...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Warmer temperatures and frequent drought directly affect urban tree health. Both abiotic conditions also affect tree health via increased density of some insect pests. Warming is predicted to benefit urban trees by increasing carbon sequestration and allocation to biomass. However, increased drought and pests are rarely considered despite often co-occurring with heat. To determine the combined effects of these abiotic and biotic factors, we manipulated water availability for established urban red maple trees across a gradient of warming and pest density and measured leaf-level processes and tree growth over two years. We find that water availability is a major determinant of tree growth, physiological processes,...
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Rockland habitat in South Florida, USA, is a threatened ecosystem that has been lost, fragmented, or degraded because of urbanization or other anthropogenic disturbance. Furthermore, low-lying islands and coastal areas are experiencing sea level rise (SLR) and an increased frequency and intensity of tidal flooding, putting rockland habitats there at increasing risk of ecological change. We evaluated changes in the extent of rockland habitat under various scenarios of future SLR, tidal flooding, and human development for two endemic state-listed threatened species of snakes, the Rim Rock Crowned Snake (Tantilla oolitica) and the Key Ring-necked Snake (Diadophis punctatus acricus). Both snakes are restricted to South...
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Coastal ecosystems offer substantial natural benefits to local people and wildlife. They serve as protective buffers from storms and provide food, clean water, and recreational opportunities for humans as well as critical habitat for fish and wildlife. Many of these coastal areas also preserve a rich historical and cultural heritage. Coastal communities facing global change can help maintain or increase resiliency by improving the region’s adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity is the ability to prepare for environmental and social stressors in advance, in a way that is responsive to constant change. The greater the adaptive capacity of a system, the more resilient it is to disturbances like sea-level rise, tropical...
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Abstract (from Science of The Total Environment): Globally increasing wildfires have been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. However, providing decision makers with a clear understanding of how future planetary warming could affect fire regimes is complicated by confounding land use factors that influence wildfire and by uncertainty associated with model simulations of climate change. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models in combination with the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM) to project changing potential fire probabilities in the conterminous United States for two scenarios representing lower (RCP 4.5) and higher (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission futures....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation