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Climate change is affecting species and ecosystems across the Northeast and Midwest U.S. Natural resource managers looking to maintain ecological function and species persistence have requested information to improve resource management in the face of climate change. Leveraging the research that has already been supported by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and its partners, this project used the latest modeling techniques combined with robust field data to examine the impact of specific climate variables, land use change, and species interactions on the future distribution and abundance of species of conservation concern. An interdisciplinary team worked to understand the mechanisms that are driving...
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects1,2,3,4,5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change6. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modelling approach and current-generation general circulation model output under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5....
Abstract (from Nature Climate Change): Many varieties of short-duration extreme weather pose a threat to global crop production, food security and farmer livelihoods1,2,3,4. Hourly exposure to extreme heat has been identified as detrimental to crop yields1,5; however, the influence of hourly rainfall intensity and extremes on yields remains unknown4,6,7. Here, we show that while maize and soy yields in the United States are severely damaged by the rarest hourly rainfall extremes (≥50 mm hr−1), they benefit from heavy rainfall up to 20 mm hr−1, roughly the heaviest downpour of the year on average. We also find that yields decrease in response to drizzle (0.1–1 mm hr−1), revealing a complex pattern of yield sensitivity...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The understanding of sea-level rise (SLR) processes has improved significantly over the past 15-20 years. Contributions from ice sheets and ocean dynamics are increasingly well-understood, and global budgets better constrained. In addition to physically-based models, semi-empirical methods, and more recently expert elicitations, are also available to describe potential SLR. In spite of these advances, there is still large uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of SLR over the next century and beyond. How much and how fast sea-level may rise can be a significant determinant of management actions in both natural and built environments. Assessing the potential vulnerability of the coastal zone to SLR requires integrating...
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This project compiled, synthesized, and communicated tailored climate change information to NE CASC stakeholders, including Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC), state and federal agencies, and tribal communities. Our mission is to make climate science actionable by getting to know our stakeholders and the decisions they face, and delivering climate information that is directly relevant to their decisions and priorities. The project team served as a resource to answer individual inquiries related to climate model projections in order to aid climate change adaptation. Additionally, the team contributed to the development of a synthesis document to help the Midwest and Northeast states prepare their threatened...
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Coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) provide a myriad of beneficial services, including buffering storm surge, improving water quality, supporting commercial fisheries, and providing habitat for imperiled wildlife and plants. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the goods and services provided by NWRs and pose decision-making challenges for refuge managers. The purpose of this project was to explore how structured decision-making – a formal, systematic method for analyzing decisions – could help NWR staff make informed...
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Historical and projected climate data point toward significant changes in the future for the Northeastern and Midwestern U.S. These changes will include impacts to many species (like birds, fish, and mammals), ecosystems (like forests), and natural resources (like water) that humans appreciate and rely on. In order to prepare for these changes, land and resource managers need to be able to predict how species will respond, what specific mechanisms are driving these changes, and what thresholds wildlife species may soon be pushed across. Crossing these thresholds could lead to rapid change or decline in the health of a wildlife population. In response to this need, a team of researchers is working to identify the...
Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.
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In 2010, 39 percent of the U.S.population lived near the coast. This population is expected to increase by 8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Coastal regions are also home to species and habitats that provide critical services to humans, such as wetlands that buffer coasts from storms. Therefore, sea-level rise and the associated changes in coastlines challenge both human communities and ecosystems. Understanding which coastal lands will be vulnerable to sea-level rise is critical for policy makers, land-use planners, and coastal residents. Focusing on the coastal region from Virginia to Maine, researchers examined a range of different possible sea-level rise scenarios, combined with information on features of the coastal...
Assessing the potential vulnerability of the coastal zone to sea-level rise (SLR) requires integrating a variety of physical, biological, and social factors. These include landscape, habitat, and resource changes, as well as the ability of society and its institutions to adapt. The range of physical and biological responses associated with SLR is poorly understood at some of the critical time and space scales required for decision making. Limitations in the ability to quantitatively predict outcomes at local, regional, and national scales affect whether, when, and how some decisions will be made. The USGS and collaborators are developing scientific knowledge and tools to understand and anticipate the magnitude and...
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The Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC) develops scientific information and tools to help managers address climate variability and climate change related to impacts on land, water, fish and wildlife, nearshore, coastal and cultural heritage resources. The NE CASC is hosted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMASS) with consortium partners College of Menominee Nation, Columbia University, Cornell University, Michigan State University, University of Missouri, University of Vermont, University of Wisconsin, Woodwell Climate Research Center and the United States Forest Service Northern Research Station. The NE CASC consortium addresses regional science priorities of the Department of the...
    map background search result map search result map Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds? Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Massachusetts Amherst (2019-2024) Climate Assessments and Scenario Planning (CLASP) Examining the Responses of Species to Climate Change: Will Wildlife Face Biological Thresholds?