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Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land-use change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United...
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Scientists, planners, policy makers and other decision-makers in the South Central U.S. want to understand the potential impacts of changes in climate, precipitation, and land-use patterns on natural and cultural resources. Though the potential impacts of climate change can be modeled to help decision-makers plan for future conditions, these models rarely incorporate changes in land-use that may occur. Climate change and land-use change are often linked, as shifts in precipitation and temperature can alter patterns in human land-use activities, such as agriculture. This project sought to address this gap by developing new software tools that enable stakeholders to quickly develop custom, climate-sensitive land-use...
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The USGS Forecasting Scenarios of Land-use Change (FORE-SCE) model was used to produce an agricultural biofuel scenarios for the Northern Glaciated Plains, from 2012 to 2030. The modeling used parcel data from the USDA's Common Land Unit (CLU) data set to represent real, contiguous ownership and land management units. A Monte Carlo approach was used to create 50 unique replicates of potential landscape conditions in the future, based on a agricultural scenario from the U.S. Department of Energy's Billion Ton Update. The data are spatially explicit, covering the entire Northern Glaciated Plains ecoregions (an EPA Level III ecoregion), with a spatial resolution of 30-meters and 22 unique land-cover classes (including...
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The USGS’s FORE-SCE model was used to produce land-use and land-cover (LULC) projections for the conterminous United States. The projections were originally created as part of the "LandCarbon" project, an effort to understand biological carbon sequestration potential in the United States. However, the projections are being used for a wide variety of purposes, including analyses of the effects of landscape change on biodiversity, water quality, and regional weather and climate. The year 1992 served as the baseline for the landscape modeling. The 1992 to 2005 period was considered the historical baseline, with datasets such as the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), USGS Land Cover Trends, and US Department of Agriculture's...
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Projected land use/land cover for 2050. Spatial and temporal distributions of current and projected land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes are essential in modeling future potential carbon storage and fluxes within the nation's major ecological regions (Zhu and others, 2010). Annual raster-based maps of future LULC conditions for the years 2006 to 2100 were created based on historical LULC conditions combined with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) scenario elements to develop four distinct, equally plausible outcomes. The historical LULC baseline conditions were derived from 1.) a modified version of the 1992 National Land Cover Dataset (http://www.epa.gov/mrlc/nlcd.html),...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The Land Change Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) initiative uses temporally dense Landsat data and time series analyses to characterize landscape change in the United States from 1985 to present. LCMAP will be used to explain how past, present, and future landscape change affects society and natural systems. Here, we describe a modeling framework for producing high-resolution (spatial and thematic) landscape projections at a national scale, using a unique parcel-based modeling framework. The methodology was tested by modeling 11 land use scenarios and 3 climate realizations for the U.S. Great Plains. Results demonstrate 1) an ability to balance competing land-use demands...
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Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges....
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Historical land use/land cover for 2005. Spatial and temporal distributions of current and projected land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes are essential in modeling future potential carbon storage and fluxes within the nation's major ecological regions (Zhu and others, 2010). Annual raster-based maps of future LULC conditions for the years 2006 to 2100 were created based on historical LULC conditions combined with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) scenario elements to develop four distinct, equally plausible outcomes. The historical LULC baseline conditions were derived from 1.) a modified version of the 1992 National Land Cover Dataset (http://www.epa.gov/mrlc/nlcd.html),...
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A new version of USGS’s FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for four ecoregions in the Great Plains (corresponding to the area represented by the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative). The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial extent (covering much of the Great Plains), 4) use of real land ownership boundaries to ensure realistic representation of landscape patterns, and 5) representation of both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation change. A variety of scenarios were modeled from 2014 to 2100, with decadal timesteps (i.e., 2014, 2020, 2030,...
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Understanding and anticipating change in dynamic Earth systems is vital for societal adaptation and welfare. USGS possesses the multidisciplinary capabilities to anticipate Earth systems change, yet our work is often bound within a single discipline and/or Mission Area. The proposed work breaks new ground in moving USGS towards an interdisciplinary predictive modeling framework. We are initially leveraging three research elements that cross the Land Resources and Water Mission Areas in an attempt to “close the loop” in modeling interactions among water, land use, and climate. Using the Delaware River Basin as a proof-of-concept, we are modeling 1) historical and future landscapes (~1850 to 2100), 2) evapotranspiration...
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A new version of USGS’s FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for the Upper Missouri River Basin region of the northern Great Plains. The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial extent (covering approximately 516,000 square kilometers), 4) use of real land ownership boundaries to ensure realistic representation of landscape patterns, and 5) representation of both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation change. A variety of scenarios were modeled from 2014 to 2100, with decadal timesteps (i.e., 2014, 2020, 2030, etc.). Modeled land use and natural vegetation...
Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007-2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a number of crosscutting science directions. Ten years on, to further the goal of integrated science and at the request of the Executive Leadership Team (ELT), a workshop with three dozen invited scientists spanning different disciplines and career stages in the Bureau convened on February 7-10, 2017, at the USGS John Wesley...
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The USGS’s FORE-SCE model was used to produce a long-term landscape dataset for the Delaware River Basin (DRB). Using historical landscape reconstruction and scenario-based future projections, the data provided land-use and land-cover (LULC) data for the DRB from year 1680 through 2100, with future projections from 2020-2100 modeled for 7 different socioeconomic-based scenarios, and 3 climate realizations for each socioeconomic scenario (21 scenario combinations in total). The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (20 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial extent (covering the entirety of the Delaware River basin, corresponding to USGS...
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The goal of land use and land cover (LULC) modeling activities is to 1) temporally extend remote sensing-based land cover databases for future and historical time periods when remote sensing data are not available, and 2) facilitate the application of modeled landscape data. In more than 12 years since the Forecasting Scenarios of land use (FORE-SCE) model was developed and first applied, EROS has developed a unique capability to produce landscape projections that match the spatial, temporal, and thematic characteristics of National Land Cover Database (NLCD) or LCMAP land cover products. Using actual land use and land management parcels for spatial modeling ensures the realistic representation of landscape pattern....
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A new version of USGS’s FORE-SCE model was used to produce unprecedented landscape projections for four ecoregions in the Prairie Potholes region of Great Plains. The scenarios are consistent with the same scenarios modeled for the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region. The projections are characterized by 1) high spatial resolution (30-meter cells), 2) high thematic resolution (29 land use and land cover classes), 3) broad spatial extent (covering approximately 350,000 square kilometers), 4) use of real land ownership boundaries to ensure realistic representation of landscape patterns, and 5) representation of both anthropogenic land use and natural vegetation change. A variety of scenarios were...
    map background search result map search result map Land Use/Land Cover: Projected 2005 Land Use/Land Cover: Projected 2050 Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes Modeled 2030 land cover for the Northern Glaciated Plains ecoregion 33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region 33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Prairie Potholes of the United States Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100 The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075 33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Upper Missouri River Basin Long-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100) Long-term database of historical, current, and future land cover for the Delaware River Basin (1680 through 2100) Modeled 2030 land cover for the Northern Glaciated Plains ecoregion Land Use/Land Cover: Projected 2005 Land Use/Land Cover: Projected 2050 33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Upper Missouri River Basin 33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperative region 33 high-resolution scenarios of land use and vegetation change in the Prairie Potholes of the United States Building a Decision-Support Tool for Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecological Processes Conterminous United States Land Cover Projections - 1992 to 2100 The Relative Impacts of Climate and Land-use Change on Conterminous United States Bird Species from 2001 to 2075