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This report identifies needs and opportunities in the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) region relative to climate change science, management, and adaptation strategies. The region includes the territories of Guam and American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas (CNMI), and the independent states of Palau, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), and the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). This inventory is responsive to the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC) Strategic Science Agenda and its articulation with the region.
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC
Abstract (from http://climatechangeresponses.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40665-016-0015-2): Background Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. Results The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely...
This final report is for the Pacific Islands CSC funded project "Very Fine Resolution Dynamical Downscaling of Past and Future Climates for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Islands of O`ahu and Kaua`i".
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Pacific Islands CASC
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0088.1): A comprehensive understanding of the spatial, seasonal, and diurnal patterns in cloud cover frequency over the Hawaiian Islands was developed using high-resolution image data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. The Terra and Aqua MODIS cloud mask products, which provide the confidence that a given 1-km pixel is unobstructed by cloud, were obtained for the entire MODIS time series (10-plus years) over the main Hawaiian Islands. Monthly statistics were generated from the daily cloud mask data, including mean cloud cover...
Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-13-00202.1): Traditional long-term (decadal) and large-scale (hundreds of kilometers) shoreline change modeling techniques, known as single transect, or ST, often overfit the data because they calculate shoreline statistics at closely spaced intervals along the shore. To reduce overfitting, recent work has used spatial basis functions such as polynomials, B splines, and principal components. Here, we explore an alternative to such basis functions by using regularization to reduce the dimension of the ST model space. In our regularized-ST method, traditional ST is an end member of a continuous spectrum of models. We use an evidence information criterion...
The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a nation of widely dispersed, low-lying coral atolls and islands, with over 100 square miles of land area scattered across 750,000 square miles of ocean. Average elevation for the RMI is approximately 7 feet above mean sea level, but many islands and atolls are much lower. As climate change causes sea level to rise and weather patterns to shift, the Marshall Islands are increasingly having to contend with flooding and drought that damages agriculture, homes, and infrastructure. Residents are increasingly making the difficult choice to leave their home islands in the hope of a more stable future, moving within the country to larger islands or to the United States where...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13005/abstract): Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-1698-6): Chronic erosion in Hawaiʻi causes beach loss, damages homes and infrastructure, and endangers critical habitat. These problems will likely worsen with increased sea level rise (SLR). We forecast future coastal change by combining historical shoreline trends with projected accelerations in SLR ( IPCC RCP8.5) using the Davidson-Arnott profile model. The resulting erosion hazard zones are overlain on aerial photos and other GIS layers to provide a tool for identifying assets exposed to future coastal erosion. We estimate rates and distances of shoreline change for ten study sites across the Hawaiian Islands. Excluding one beach (Kailua) historically...
This project used climate models to produce projections of increases in sea temperatures for coral reef areas in Micronesia and abroad. The results suggest that projected sea temperature increases will cause coral bleaching to occur annually in Guam and CNMI by the early 2040s, if current greenhouse gas emissions growth continues. Coral reefs are expected to change dramatically once severe bleaching occurs annually, resulting in loss of biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services. Reefs in Micronesia would have at least a decade more time to adapt or acclimate to climate change if the emissions reductions pledges made under the Paris Agreement become reality. Importantly, the projections reveal that coral reef...
High-resolution projections of future terrestrial climate conditions for the high Hawaiian islands (Hawaiʻi Island, Maui Nui, Oʻahu, and Kauaʻi) have been developed using statistical and dynamical downscaling methods. A “Workshop on Climate Downscaling and its Application in the High Hawaiian Islands” (https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/ofr20161102) was held in 2015 to address questions from natural resource managers about how to integrate climate-related projections into their resource management decisions. Since the 2015 workshop, additional climate modeling has been done. New projections for the same places using familiar modeling techniques remained dissimilar, and a completely new modeling effort appears...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ece3.3092/full): Earthquake-generated tsunamis threaten coastal areas and low-lying islands with sudden flooding. Although human hazards and infrastructure damage have been well documented for tsunamis in recent decades, the effects on wildlife communities rarely have been quantified. We describe a tsunami that hit the world's largest remaining tropical seabird rookery and estimate the effects of sudden flooding on 23 bird species nesting on Pacific islands more than 3,800 km from the epicenter. We used global positioning systems, tide gauge data, and satellite imagery to quantify characteristics of the Tōhoku earthquake-generated tsunami (11 March 2011)...
Abstract (from PLOS One): Declining natural resources have led to a cultural renaissance across the Pacific that seeks to revive customary ridge-to-reef management approaches to protect freshwater and restore abundant coral reef fisheries. Effective ridge-to-reef management requires improved understanding of land-sea linkages and decision-support tools to simultaneously evaluate the effects of terrestrial and marine drivers on coral reefs, mediated by anthropogenic activities. Although a few applications have linked the effects of land cover to coral reefs, these are too coarse in resolution to inform watershed-scale management for Pacific Islands. To address this gap, we developed a novel linked land-sea modeling...
The 37 islands of the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) are low-lying atolls and islands, making the country extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The goal of this research was to provide easilyaccessible decision-making tools for managers, decision-makers and the public to assist in planning for agroforestry in the face of increasing drought and sea level rise (SLR). A team of researchers and climate change adaptation specialists from the RMI and the U.S. was responsible for the effort. Although the RMI is heavily reliant on imported food, local foods are still important in providing nutrients lacking in imported foods and has cultural importance. The role of plants in stabilizing shorelines is increasingly...
Climate change is expected to alter the seasonal and annual patterns of rainfall and temperature in the Hawaiian Islands. Land managers and other responsible agencies will need to know how plant species’ habitats will change over the next hundred years in order to manage these resources effectively. This is a major concern for resource managers at Hawai`i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) where current managed Special Ecological Areas (SEAs) for important plant species and communities may no longer provide suitable habitat in the future as climate changes. Expanding invasive species’ distributions under future climate conditions also may pose a threat to areas where native plants currently predominate. The objective...
Episodic runoff carries suspended sediment to the nearshore, where it blocks light used for photosynthesis, smothers corals, inhibits coral recruitment, and triggers increases in macroalgae. Even small rainfalls create visible plumes over a few hours. Sediment affects coastal user enjoyment by deteriorating both ecosystem quality and visibility. Sources of erosion include unimproved roads, fallow and active agricultural fields, disturbed forests, local development, and streambanks. In this project, USGS used mapping, field experiments and monitoring, and analysis of recent (July 19–20, 2014) and historic rainfall to estimate sources of land-based pollution for watersheds in West Maui, Hawaii. USGS constructed an...
While the iconic Haleakalā silversword plant made a strong recovery from early 20th-century threats, it has now entered a period of substantial climate-related decline. New research published this week warns that global warming may have severe consequences for the silversword in its native habitat.
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The Department of the Interior Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PI-CSC) supports adaptation in Hawai‘i and the US Affiliated Pacific Islands by producing new knowledge and tools through research, working with resource managers and community planners to incorporate environmental knowledge in adaptation decision making, and providing education and training to build capacity in resource managers and scientists. In the Pacific Islands region, over 500 endangered and other vulnerable species exist in a complex set of landscapes and seascapes. People, built environments, natural heritage, agriculture, and economies are interwoven in a patchwork compressed onto small land areas. Therefore, a holistic approach to...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract: Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful...
Hawaii’s high and steep topography leads to pronounced small-scale variations in climate, and this makes comprehensive modeling of the weather and climate particularly challenging. This paper describes a regional model formulation designed for simulations of the microclimates in Hawaii and then documents and analyzes an extended retrospective simulation for near-present-day conditions. Part II will apply the model to projected climate conditions near the end of the present century. A nested version of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fine horizontal resolution and improved physics for the Hawaiian region has been configured. A 20-yr triply nested simulation of the...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016WR018718/full): Multicollinearity and omitted-variable bias are major limitations to developing multiple linear regression models to estimate streamflow characteristics in ungaged areas and varying rainfall conditions. Panel regression is used to overcome limitations of traditional regression methods, and obtain reliable model coefficients, in particular to understand the elasticity of streamflow to rainfall. Using annual rainfall and selected basin characteristics at 86 gaged streams in the Hawaiian Islands, regional regression models for three stream classes were developed to estimate the annual low-flow duration discharges. Three panel-regression structures...