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Environmental Change Network: Current and Future Zonation PrioritizationZonation is a spatial conservation planning software tool that can take into account multiple species to create a hierarchical prioritization of the landscape. This is in contrast to other spatial conservation planning tools which may require predefined conservation targets or areas. Here, we used 199 California landbirds along with Zonation’s “core-area” algorithm to prioritize the California landscape. Species were weighted according to the California Bird Species of Special Concern criteria and probability of occurrence was discounted by distribution model and climate model uncertainty surfaces.The dataset provides priority areas for “current”...
These maps display the magnitude of projected future climate change in relation to the interannual variability in late 20th century CA climate. The maps show the standardized Euclidean distance between the late 20th century climate at each pixel and the future climate at each pixel. The standardization puts all of the climate variables included on the same scale and down weights changes in future climate which have had large year to year variation historically. Warmer colors indicate greater climate change and cooler colors indicate less extreme climate change.
Bird community turnover for current and future climate (GFDL) based on maxent models for 198 land bird species.
This business plan provides the rationale for developing an Environmental Change Network for the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative. This plan will illustrate important potential uses of the network and its data and show how these uses will increase the efficiency and efficacy of adaptation planning and implementation efforts. We will demonstrate how the value of the network will be greater if implemented sooner. We also show how the proposed network will integrate with larger scale efforts currently ongoing at the national level and how it can also inform smaller scale efforts at local levels. The specific objectives of this business plan are to:• Provide a rational for the further development and implementation...
Full Title: Environmental Change Network: Current and Projected VegetationThe current vegetation layer is derived from the vegetation map developed as part of the California Gap Analysis project. The derivation takes the California Wildlife Habitat Relationships (CWHR) habitat classification provided in the California Gap Analysis layer, generalizes the classes to a set of broader habitat types, and rasterizes it at 800 meter resolution.The future vegetation layers for both the GFDL and CCSM GCM models are derived using a random forest model of the vegetation classification. The original CWHR classification has been generalized to 12 classes for ease in modeling. Inputs to the model include eight bioclimatic variables...
This website provides information on the project’s effort to establish a network of environmental monitoring stations within the boundaries of the California LCC. Users of this web portal can view predicted distributional changes in landbird, habitat, and climate under future climate conditions and find out general information on the progress and evolution of the network.
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...
The development of sophisticated species distribution modeling techniques provides an opportunity to examine the potential effects of climate change on bird communities. Using these modeling approaches, we are relating bird data to environmental layers to generate robust predictions of current (1971–2000) and projected future species occurrence. Future bird distributions are based on regional climate model projections for the periods 2038–2070 (IPCC Scenario A2). Bird species distributions were created using the Maxent modeling technique: Maxent (Phillips et al. 2006), which is able to model non-linear responses to environmental variables. Map values represent the predicted habitat suitability; the higher the values,...
Species richness indicates the number of different species predicted to be able to occur at a location. Maps show the projected species richness under current climate and two models of future climate conditions. Species richness is calculated by converting the predictions from maxent models into binary maps of presence and absence and summing the maps across all species. Higher values in the maps indicate where more bird species are projected to be able to occur.