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The overall objective of this work is to understand how changing climate and associated ecohydrological conditions will impact the distribution of sagebrush ecosystems over the next century. This study will provide valuable insight into the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to changes in climate, climate variability, and disturbance regime. This work utilizes the best currently available downscaled climate data (Maurer) and builds upon recent published results. Products from this project will provide wildlife managers with the ability to categorize and prioritize areas based on their probability of being capable of supporting sagebrush ecosystems in the future, information that is crucial for upcoming listing...
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Pinyon pine woodlands are among the most widespread and iconic vegetation types in the western United States and support recreation, resource extraction, grazing, and cultural enrichment. However, severe drought conditions have recently caused dramatic mortality of pinyon pines, creating concern about the long-term impact of increasing aridity on the viability of pinyon woodlands. Ecological transformations, or regime shifts, are rapid reorganizations of an ecosystem’s species composition, governing processes, and functions. The goal of this project is to investigate ecological transformation across the Western U.S, characterize the environmental drivers of these changes in vegetation, and apply those insights...
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In the desert Southwest, changes in species composition, abundance, and distribution that may occur with climate change have significant implications for management of natural resources. These changes include: the extirpation or introduction of species, losses of biodiversity, shifts in structure and function of ecosystems and the services they provide, changes in wildlife habitat, invasion of non-native species, and changes in fire regimes. For planning, mitigation, and adaption, land managers would be greatly aided by knowing, in advance, which plant species, functional types, and assemblages will change in response to climate change so that monitoring and mitigation measures can focus on those resources. FY2012In...
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Big sagebrush plant communities are important and widespread in western North America and are crucial for meeting long-term conservation goals for greater sage-grouse and other wildlife of conservation concern. Yet wildfire is increasing in the West, turning biodiverse, shrub-based ecosystems dominated by sagebrush into grasslands containing invasive species such as cheatgrass and less overall plant and animal diversity. These transformations negatively impact people and ecosystems by reducing habitat quality for wildlife and the aesthetic value of the landscape. Understanding how sagebrush communities are already responding and will continue to respond to changes in wildfire, invasive species, and climate is...
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Pinyon-juniper woodlands are a major part of western landscapes and are valued for recreational use, cultural resources, watershed protection, and wildlife habitats. These woodlands have been identified by several stakeholders, including natural resource management entities, federal and state agencies, and numerous tribal nations, as important ecosystems that are currently threatened by land treatments, changes in disturbance regimes such as drought and fire, and widespread tree mortality. Currently there exist competing objectives for the management of these systems, including the desire to preserve pinyon-juniper viability as climate conditions continue to shift, as well as the need to track these systems to ensure...
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Ponderosa pine forests are declining and their future persistence is uncertain. Most research on forest declines has focused on the effects of disturbances including wildfire, insect outbreaks, and severe drought on mortality of mature trees. Yet, recent research suggests that ponderosa pine declines may be even more severe as these ecosystems fail to regenerate naturally (i.e. grow from seed to adulthood) in a climate that is becoming increasingly less favorable for juvenile tree survival. For land managers to accurately assess and combat the risk of failed regeneration, it is critical to better understand the many factors supporting regeneration across the diverse habitats where these ecosystems are located. ...
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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
    map background search result map search result map The Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection Under Climate Change (Not listed in the LCC Science Catalog due to Desert LCC co-funding and catalog administering) Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Assessing the future of sagebrush ecosystems: a decision support tool for planning sage grouse conservation Ecology and Management of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: State of the Science Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Mapping the Risk of Ecological Transformation Across Pinyon Woodlands and the U.S. West Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.? The Impact of Ecosystem Water Balance on Desert Vegetation: Quantification of Historical Patterns and Projection Under Climate Change (Not listed in the LCC Science Catalog due to Desert LCC co-funding and catalog administering) Can Management Actions Support Forest Regeneration Across the Diverse Landscapes and Climate Change Futures of the Southwestern U.S.? Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Assessing the future of sagebrush ecosystems: a decision support tool for planning sage grouse conservation Ecology and Management of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands: State of the Science Big Sagebrush Response to Wildfire and Invasive Grasses in the 21st Century Mapping the Risk of Ecological Transformation Across Pinyon Woodlands and the U.S. West