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We quantified the potential area available for landward migration of tidal saline wetlands and freshwater wetlands due to sea-level rise (SLR) at the estuary scale for 166 estuarine drainage areas and at the state scale for 22 coastal states and District of Columbia. We used 2016 Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP) data in combination with the future wetland migration data under the 1.5 m global SLR scenario to evaluate the potential for wetland migration into all the individual C-CAP classes and into the following six land cover categories: (1) freshwater forest (wetland); (2) freshwater marsh (wetland); (3) terrestrial forest (upland); (4) terrestrial grassland (upland); (5) agricultural croplands (upland);...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
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MethodsStudy area: Our initial study area included the entire globe. We began with a seamless grid of cells with a resolution of 0.5 degrees (i.e., ~50 km at the equator). Next, we created polylines representing coastlines using SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) v4.1 global digital elevation model data at a resolution of 250 m (Reuter et al. 2007). We used these coastline polylines to identify and retain cells that intersected the coast. We excluded 192,227 cells that did not intersect the coast. To avoid cells with minimal potential coastal wetland habitat, we used the coastline data to remove an additional 1,056 coastal cells that contained less than or equal to 5% coverage of land. We also removed 176...
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We characterized coastal wetland responses to flooding stress by measuring vegetation cover, wetland elevation and water elevation in healthy and degrading wetlands dominated by Spartina patens. Wetland elevation was measured using real-time kinematic survey methods. Vegetation cover was determined by visual estimation methods, and water elevation was measured using in situ continuous recorders. In addition to these local-scale responses, we also measured landscape-scale patterns of land and water aggregation or fragmentation using remotely sensed data (Jones et al., 2018). Associated products: Jones, W.R., Hartley, S.B., Stagg, C.L., and Osland, M.J. 2018. Land-water classification for selected sites in McFaddin...
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The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans two major climate gradients and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models. In this project, we used these zones of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing important fish and wildlife habitat and supporting coastal food webs, these coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem goods and services including clean water, stable coastlines, food, recreational opportunities, and stored carbon. Our objective was to examine and forecast the effects of macroclimatic drivers on wetland ecosystem structure...
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The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans two major climate gradients and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models. In this project, we used these zones of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing important fish and wildlife habitat and supporting coastal food webs, these coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem goods and services including clean water, stable coastlines, food, recreational opportunities, and stored carbon. Our objective was to examine and forecast the effects of macroclimatic drivers on wetland ecosystem structure...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
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The study area included the coasts of all five U.S. states along the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas). We contacted federal, state, and university-affiliated scientists working with SET-MH data within this area to obtain the geographic coordinates and the installation year for each SET-MH station. Please note that while our inventory is extensive and includes most SET-MH stations in the region, our inventory is not fully exhaustive; in other words, it is possible that some stations in the region are not contained within this inventory. The SET-MH stations in our dataset include original SET, deep rod SET (RSET), and shallow RSET benchmarks.
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Global climate change is leading to large-scale shifts in species’ range limits. For example, rising winter temperatures are shifting the abundance and distributions of tropical, cold sensitive plant species towards higher latitudes. Coastal wetlands provide a prime example of such shifts, with tropical mangrove forests expanding into temperate salt marshes as winter warming alleviates past geographic limits set by cold intolerance. These rapid changes are dynamic and challenging to monitor, and uncertainty remains regarding the extent of mangrove expansion near poleward range limits. Here, we synthesized existing datasets and expert knowledge to assess the current (i.e., 2021) distribution of mangroves near dynamic...
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In coastal wetlands, one of the most striking examples of climate change is the poleward range expansion of mangrove forests in response to warming winters. In North America, the Cedar Key region has often been considered the range limit for mangroves along the western coast of Florida (USA). However, within the past several decades, robust stands of Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle have been observed in the Apalachicola Bay region, which is 200 km northwest of Cedar Key. This dataset characterizes the distribution and structure of the mangroves in the Apalachicola Bay area of Florida identified via extensive ground surveys and photointerpretation of aerial imagery from 2018 to 2019.
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Twenty-three long-term mangrove vegetation plots were established between 1992-1997 within the southwest coastal region of Everglades National Park (Florida, USA) to quantify tree damage and recovery following hurricanes and to understand the effects of global climate change. Many of the mangrove vegetation plots were associated with hydrology, soil porewater, and soil surface elevation monitoring stations. Within each plot, trees were tagged, mapped, and identified to species. The diameter at breast height (DBH) and status of each tree were measured at one to two year intervals through 2011. This dataset includes 51,730 tree measurements.
This data release contains land cover-derived statistics regarding estuarine vegetated wetland area change within estuary drainage areas along the conterminous U.S. This dataset includes net change in estuarine vegetated wetland area based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Change Assessment Program (C-CAP) 1996 and 2016 land cover data. Net change was assessed between estuarine vegetated wetlands (i.e., estuarine marshes, mangroves, non-mangrove estuarine woody wetlands, and salt pannes, depending on vegetation coverage and type) and the following other landcover classes: 1) water; 2) unconsolidated shore; 3) freshwater woody wetlands; 4) freshwater marsh; 5) upland; and 6) agriculture....
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This data set contains measurements of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) leaf damage following the February 2021 freeze event that affected mangroves in the northern Gulf of Mexico.
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Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. We integrated these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. We evaluated three sea-level rise thresholds for wetland drowning (4, 7, and 10 mm/yr). Our study area spans the coastal conterminous United States, which includes Washington, D.C. and 22 coastal states along the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean. Within the study area, we created a grid of 168 1-degree resolution cells for data acquisition and analyses. We examined three alternative sea-level rise scenarios, the Intermediate-Low,...
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The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans two major climate gradients and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models. In this project, we used these zones of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing important fish and wildlife habitat and supporting coastal food webs, these coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem goods and services including clean water, stable coastlines, food, recreational opportunities, and stored carbon. Our objective was to examine and forecast the effects of macroclimatic drivers on wetland ecosystem structure...
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Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landward in response to accelerated sea-level rise. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization extent, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate wetland migration. The landward movement of wetlands requires suitable conditions, such as a gradual slope and land free of urban development. Urban barriers can constrain migration and result in wetland loss (coastal squeeze). For future-focused conservation planning purposes, there is a pressing need to quantify and compare the potential for wetland landward movement and coastal squeeze. For 41 estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the USA gulf coast), we quantified and compared...
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Climatic extremes are becoming more frequent with climate change and have the potential to cause major ecological shifts and ecosystem collapse. Along the northern Gulf of Mexico, a coastal wetland in the San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge in Texas suffered significant and acute vegetation dieback following Hurricane Harvey in 2017. We identified plant zonal boundaries along an elevation gradient with drought-tolerant plant species, including succulents and graminoids, at higher elevations and flood-tolerant species, including Spartina alterniflora, at lower elevations. We measured mean canopy height for each species. Soil surface elevation was measured using Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) methods.
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The surface elevation table (SET)-marker horizon (MH) approach (SET-MH, together) is a method for quantifying surface elevation change through measurements of surface and subsurface processes that control wetland soil elevation. This dataset combines SET-MH data from five different U.S. Geological Survey efforts to monitor surface elevation change in the coastal wetlands of the Greater Everglades region of south Florida. Data from these efforts have been used in the publications by Cahoon and Lynch (1997), Whelan et al. (2005, 2009), Smith et al. (2009), McKee (2011), Breithaupt et al. (2020), Feher et al. (2020), Howard et al. (2020), and Osland et al. (2020). Although some of these data have previously been released...
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In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed...
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Macroclimatic drivers, such as temperature and rainfall regimes, greatly influence ecosystem structure and function in tidal saline wetlands. Understanding the ecological influence of macroclimatic drivers is important because it provides a foundation for anticipating the effects of climate change. Tidal saline wetlands include mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats, which occupy similar geomorphic settings but different climatic regimes. However, most global- or regional-scale analyses have treated these wetlands as independent systems. Here we used climate and literature-derived ecological data from all three systems, collected across targeted regional-scale macroclimatic gradients, to test hypotheses...


map background search result map search result map U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Vegetation Data Section 1 (2013-2014) U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Landscape and Climate Data (2013-2014) U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Soil Data (2013-2014) Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests Point data Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States Local and landscape-scale data describing patterns of coastal wetland loss in the Texas Chenier Plain, U.S.A., 2017-2018 The distribution and structure of mangroves (Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle) near a rapidly changing range limit in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Coastal wetland vegetation and elevation data characterizing a Sudden Vegetation Dieback event in San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge in 2019 Mangrove distribution in the southeastern United States in 2021 Potential landward migration of coastal wetlands in response to sea-level rise within estuarine drainage areas and coastal states of the conterminous United States Soil elevation change in mangrove forests and marshes of the Greater Everglades between 1993 to 2021: a regional synthesis of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) data 2021 Gulf of Mexico Mangrove Freeze Damage Data Everglades mangrove vegetation data from 23 long-term plots (1992-2011) When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States? Coastal wetland vegetation and elevation data characterizing a Sudden Vegetation Dieback event in San Bernard National Wildlife Refuge in 2019 Local and landscape-scale data describing patterns of coastal wetland loss in the Texas Chenier Plain, U.S.A., 2017-2018 Everglades mangrove vegetation data from 23 long-term plots (1992-2011) Soil elevation change in mangrove forests and marshes of the Greater Everglades between 1993 to 2021: a regional synthesis of surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) data U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Vegetation Data Section 1 (2013-2014) U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Soil Data (2013-2014) U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Landscape and Climate Data (2013-2014) Mangrove distribution in the southeastern United States in 2021 Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network 2021 Gulf of Mexico Mangrove Freeze Damage Data Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States Potential landward migration of coastal wetlands in response to sea-level rise within estuarine drainage areas and coastal states of the conterminous United States When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States? Point data Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests