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The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends will continue, such that the warming Midwest will experience wetter winters and springs, shortened snow seasons, and extreme year-round precipitation in the future. Despite this high level of confidence in climate trends, there is limited knowledge of how these will translate to flood likelihood and the associated societal...
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The availability of output from climate model ensembles,such as phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5), has greatly expanded information about future projections,but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be utilized.The multi-model average is themost commonly cited single estimate of future conditions,but higher-order moments representing thevariance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to assess extreme weather events at a level aimed to be appropriate for decisionmakers. Our analysis uses the distribution...
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Winter conditions have changed substantially in the Great Lakes region over the last 50 years, with the region experiencing rising temperatures, declining lake ice cover, and increased lake-effect snow. These changes have direct implications for economically important wildlife, such as deer and waterfowl. Deer hunting alone contributes $482 million annually to Wisconsin’s economy. The goal of this project was to identify how winter severity, snowpack, and lake ice could change through the mid- and late-21st century, and how species such as the white-tailed deer and mallard duck will respond. Because currently available climate data is at too coarse a scale to provide information on future conditions for the Great...
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This project analyzies projected changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events across the Great Lakes region, namely heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, and droughts, using a statistically downscaled climate product produced by the Climate Working Group of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI). It will perform a probabilistic exploration of weather extremes, ideally tailored toward decision-makers who are developing impact assessments at a regional scale across the Great Lakes region.


    map background search result map search result map Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Future Changes in Weather Extremes Derived from Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the Great Lakes Region Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Future Changes in Weather Extremes Derived from Statistically Downscaled Climate Projections for the Great Lakes Region Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning