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Natural and cultural resource managers across the country have begun to use a tool known as "scenario planning" to help prepare for climate change effects that may unfold in the future. In this process, scientific projections are used to identify different plausible, relevant, and divergent climate conditions for a particular area, and then through a participatory process, scientists and resource managers develop "scenarios" which describe the implications of these different conditions for resources and management. The North Central CASC has been working with the National Park Service (NPS) Climate Change Response Program (CCRP) to encourage and support national parks in incorporating climate science and scenario...
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As climate change progresses, profound environmental changes are becoming a widespread concern. A new management paradigm is developing to address this concern with a framework that encourages strategic decisions to resist, accept, or direct ecological trajectories. Effective use of the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework requires the scientific community to describe the range of plausible ecological conditions managers might face, while recognizing limits to our ability to predict precisely where or how specific climatic changes may unfold or how complex environmental systems will respond - the climatic future does not fully determine the ecological one. Recent advances have improved development and delivery...
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Climate change represents one of the foremost drivers of ecological change, yet its documented impacts on biodiversity remain uncertain and complex. Although there have been many published studies on species shifting their geographic ranges in response to climate change, it is still challenging to identify the specific mechanisms and conditions that facilitate range shifts in some species and not in others. In addition, it can be difficult to disentangle climate-induced range shifts from other environmental changes which can also result in range shifts (such as changes to land use or habitat). This project attempts to address these knowledge gaps by conducting a systematic literature review of documented cases of...
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The National Park Service is responsible for managing livestock grazing on 94 locations across the country and several grazing management planning efforts for this work are underway. However, there is a recognized need to update grazing management plans to address potential future effects of climate change on related resources and practices. This is the second phase of a project that is using scenario planning (a strategic planning technique used to inform decision-making in the face of uncertain future conditions) to support grazing management at Dinosaur National Monument. In the first phase of the project (Integrating Climate Considerations into Grazing Management Programs in National Parks), the research team...
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Even when faced with uncertainty about future climate conditions, resource managers are tasked with making planning and adaptation decisions that impact important natural and cultural resources. Species distribution models are widely used by both researchers and managers to estimate species responses to climate change. These models combine data on environmental variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) with field samples of a species’ presence, absence, and/or abundance to project and visualize potential habitat of the species across space and time. However, species distribution modeling software previously developed and supported by USGS (the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling [SAHM] package for VisTrails)...
    map background search result map search result map Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review Supporting the National Park Service in Climate Adaptation Planning Modeling to Support Grazing Management Planning in U.S. National Parks: A Case Study from Dinosaur National Monument Developing A New Software Package to Enhance Species Distribution Model Functionality Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Supporting the National Park Service in Climate Adaptation Planning Developing A New Software Package to Enhance Species Distribution Model Functionality Crafting Ecological Scenarios to Implement the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) Framework Understanding Species' Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change: Results from a Systematic National Review