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Local and traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) systems are thought to be particularly valuable for fostering adaptation and resilience to environmental and climate change. This paper investigates the role of TEK in adaptation to social–ecological change at the community level. It is unique because it takes a longitudinal perspective and draws on historical and contemporary data. We focus on a case study from Hawai‘i where TEK, cultural identity, and their relationships to environmental stewardship are locally seen as the basis for social resilience. We describe how coping strategies and indicators of social resilience have changed over time; the role of TEK in resilience; and the implications for climate change...
Hawaii’s high and steep topography leads to pronounced small-scale variations in climate, and this makes comprehensive modeling of the weather and climate particularly challenging. This paper describes a regional model formulation designed for simulations of the microclimates in Hawaii and then documents and analyzes an extended retrospective simulation for near-present-day conditions. Part II will apply the model to projected climate conditions near the end of the present century. A nested version of the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fine horizontal resolution and improved physics for the Hawaiian region has been configured. A 20-yr triply nested simulation of the...
Coastal strand and wetland habitats in the Hawaiian Islands are often intensively managed to restore and maintain biodiversity. Due to the low gradient of most coastal plain environments, the rate and aerial extent of sea-level rise (SLR) impact will rapidly accelerate once the height of the sea surface exceeds a critical elevation. Here, we develop this concept by calculating a SLR critical elevation and joint uncertainty that distinguishes between slow and rapid phases of flooding. We apply the methodology to three coastal wetlands on the Hawaiian Islands of Maui and O‘ahu to exemplify the applicability of this methodology for wetlands in the Pacific island region. Using high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Citation, Journal, Publication, completed
Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere–ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-century, and end-century time periods for the December–February and June–August seasons. The December–February regional wave climate is dominated by strong winds and...
Climate-change impacts on coral reefs are expected to include temperature-induced spatially extensive bleaching events1. Bleaching causes mortality when temperature stress persists but exposure to bleaching conditions is not expected to be spatially uniform at the regional or global scale2. Here we show the first maps of global projections of bleaching conditions based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 (ref. 3) models forced with the new Representative Concentration Pathways4 (RCPs). For the three RCPs with larger CO2 emissions (RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) the onset of annual bleaching conditions is associated with ∼ 510 ppm CO2 equivalent; the median year of all locations is 2040 for the fossil-fuel aggressive RCP 8.5. Spatial...
Anticipating potential shifts in plant communities has been a major challenge in climate change ecology. In Hawaiʻi, where conservation efforts tend to be habitat focused, the lack of projections of vegetation shifts under future climate is a major knowledge gap for developing management actions aimed at climate change mitigation and adaptation. • As a first approximation of such changes, we have modeled potential shifts of terrestrial vegetation across the Hawaiian landscape between now and the end of this century. Our approach relies on modeling the relation between current climate and the distribution of broad, climatically determined moisture zones (for example, dry, mesic, and wet areas) that form the basis...
BackgroundDetailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant.ResultsThe time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely owing at least in part to management actions taken on its behalf. In contrast, the population is estimated...
A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ;28–48C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ;25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands...
The reliability of solar irradiance measurements is dependent on the calibration of the pyranometer used to make them. Internationally recognized standards for pyranometer calibrations require resources that may not be available to all observers. To fill this gap, we propose a method of homogenizing hourly solar radiation time series based on comparison of clear-sky radiation observations against estimates derived from a clear-sky radiation model. Inhomogeneities in the record are identified based on shifts in pyranometer response in relation to the model estimates, and corrected to produce a homogeneous time series. This method was applied to the ∼23 year record of hourly solar irradiance measurements recorded...
Publication titled “Projection of changes in the frequency of heavy rain events over Hawaii based on leading Pacific climate modes”
Non-native species invasions, growing human populations, and climate change are central ecological concerns in tropical island communities. The combination of these threats have led to losses of native biota, altered hydrological and ecosystem processes, and reduced ecosystem services. These threats pose complex problems to often underfunded management entities. We developed a watershed decision support tool (WDST) for the windward coast of Hawai‘i Island aimed at prioritizing catchments for invasive species removal and native forest protection from non-native species invasions. Using the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system, we integrated spatial data from four sources: (i) native and invasive species...
Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study. Owing to latitudinal variation in wind patterns, wind speed differed between habitat used during incubation and brooding; during La Niña conditions, wind speeds were lower in incubating Laysan (though not black-footed) albatross habitat, but higher in habitats used by brooding albatrosses. Incubating Laysan albatrosses benefited from increased wind speeds during El Niño conditions, showing...
We assessed tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) sensitivity to natural disturbance by drought, fire, and dieback with a 7300-year-long paleorecord. We analyzed pollen assemblages, charcoal accumulation rates, and higher plant biomarker compounds (average chain length [ACL] of n-alkanes) in sediments from Wai’ānapanapa, a small lake near the upper forest limit and the mean trade wind inversion (TWI) in Hawai‘i. The paleorecord of ACL suggests increased drought frequency and a lower TWI elevation from 2555–1323 cal yr B.P. and 606–334 cal yr B.P. Charcoal began to accumulate and a novel fire regime was initiated ca. 880 cal yr B.P., followed by a decreased fire return interval at ca. 550 cal yr B.P. Diebacks occurred...
Growing evidence suggests short-duration climate events may drive community structure and composition more directly than long-term climate means, particularly at ecotones where taxa are close to their physiological limits. Here we use an empirical habitat model to evaluate the role of microclimate during a strong El Niño in structuring a tropical montane cloud forest’s upper limit and composition in Hawai‘i. We interpolate climate surfaces, derived from a high-density network of climate stations, to permanent vegetation plots. Climatic predictor variables include (1) total rainfall, (2) mean relative humidity, and (3) mean temperature representing non-El Niño periods and a strong El Niño drought. Habitat models...
Coral reefs and the services they provide are seriously threatened by ocean acidification and climate change impacts like coral bleaching. Here, we present updated global projections for these key threats to coral reefs based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the new Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments. For all tropical reef locations, we project absolute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching (thermal stress >8 degree heating weeks); a point at which it is difficult to believe reefs can persist as we know them. Severe annual bleaching is projected to start 10–15 years later at high-latitude...