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In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
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MethodsStudy area: Our initial study area included the entire globe. We began with a seamless grid of cells with a resolution of 0.5 degrees (i.e., ~50 km at the equator). Next, we created polylines representing coastlines using SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) v4.1 global digital elevation model data at a resolution of 250 m (Reuter et al. 2007). We used these coastline polylines to identify and retain cells that intersected the coast. We excluded 192,227 cells that did not intersect the coast. To avoid cells with minimal potential coastal wetland habitat, we used the coastline data to remove an additional 1,056 coastal cells that contained less than or equal to 5% coverage of land. We also removed 176...
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Coastal wetland loss is a serious concern along the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Texas and Louisiana where rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise are among the highest in the world, extreme storms are becoming more frequent, and flooding events are intensifying. Because coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico provide numerous ecosystem services, including providing critical habitat for species of concern such as the whooping crane and the mottled duck, federal, state, and local agencies have made significant efforts to restore habitats to increase their resilience to sea-level rise and extreme storm events. One way to help wetlands adapt to sea-level rise and extreme flooding events...
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Coastal wetlands are one of the most economically valuable ecosystems in the world. In the United States, the ecosystem services provided by wetlands are worth billions of dollars and include flood protection, erosion control, seafood, water quality enhancement, carbon storage, recreation, and wildlife habitat. Unfortunately, these ecosystems are also highly sensitive to changing climate conditions. Past research on climate impacts to coastal wetlands have concentrated primarily on sea-level rise, largely ignoring the important influence of changing temperature and precipitation patterns. Understanding the impact of temperature and precipitation on coastal wetlands can help natural and cultural resource managers...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
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Global climate change is leading to large-scale shifts in species’ range limits. For example, rising winter temperatures are shifting the abundance and distributions of tropical, cold sensitive plant species towards higher latitudes. Coastal wetlands provide a prime example of such shifts, with tropical mangrove forests expanding into temperate salt marshes as winter warming alleviates past geographic limits set by cold intolerance. These rapid changes are dynamic and challenging to monitor, and uncertainty remains regarding the extent of mangrove expansion near poleward range limits. Here, we synthesized existing datasets and expert knowledge to assess the current (i.e., 2021) distribution of mangroves near dynamic...
This data release contains land cover-derived statistics regarding estuarine vegetated wetland area change within estuary drainage areas along the conterminous U.S. This dataset includes net change in estuarine vegetated wetland area based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Coastal Change Assessment Program (C-CAP) 1996 and 2016 land cover data. Net change was assessed between estuarine vegetated wetlands (i.e., estuarine marshes, mangroves, non-mangrove estuarine woody wetlands, and salt pannes, depending on vegetation coverage and type) and the following other landcover classes: 1) water; 2) unconsolidated shore; 3) freshwater woody wetlands; 4) freshwater marsh; 5) upland; and 6) agriculture....
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Recent data syntheses have clarified future relative sea-level rise exposure and sensitivity thresholds for drowning. We integrated these advances to estimate when and where rising sea levels could cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across the conterminous United States. We evaluated three sea-level rise thresholds for wetland drowning (4, 7, and 10 mm/yr). Our study area spans the coastal conterminous United States, which includes Washington, D.C. and 22 coastal states along the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic Ocean. Within the study area, we created a grid of 168 1-degree resolution cells for data acquisition and analyses. We examined three alternative sea-level rise scenarios, the Intermediate-Low,...
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Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landward in response to accelerated sea-level rise. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization extent, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate wetland migration. The landward movement of wetlands requires suitable conditions, such as a gradual slope and land free of urban development. Urban barriers can constrain migration and result in wetland loss (coastal squeeze). For future-focused conservation planning purposes, there is a pressing need to quantify and compare the potential for wetland landward movement and coastal squeeze. For 41 estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the USA gulf coast), we quantified and compared...
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Macroclimatic drivers, such as temperature and rainfall regimes, greatly influence ecosystem structure and function in tidal saline wetlands. Understanding the ecological influence of macroclimatic drivers is important because it provides a foundation for anticipating the effects of climate change. Tidal saline wetlands include mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats, which occupy similar geomorphic settings but different climatic regimes. However, most global- or regional-scale analyses have treated these wetlands as independent systems. Here we used climate and literature-derived ecological data from all three systems, collected across targeted regional-scale macroclimatic gradients, to test hypotheses...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
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Macroclimatic drivers, such as temperature and rainfall regimes, greatly influence ecosystem structure and function in tidal saline wetlands. Understanding the ecological influence of macroclimatic drivers is important because it provides a foundation for anticipating the effects of climate change. Tidal saline wetlands include mangrove forests, salt marshes, and salt flats, which occupy similar geomorphic settings but different climatic regimes. However, most global- or regional-scale analyses have treated these wetlands as independent systems. Here we used climate and literature-derived ecological data from all three systems, collected across targeted regional-scale macroclimatic gradients, to test hypotheses...
In the next 100 years, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and urbanization will greatly modify coastal landscapes across the globe. More than one-half of coastal wetlands in the contiguous United States are located along the Gulf of Mexico coast. In addition to supporting fish and wildlife habitat, these highly productive wetlands support many ecosystem goods and services including storm protection, recreation, clean water, and carbon sequestration. Historically, tidal saline wetlands (TSWs) have adapted to sea-level fluctuations through lateral and vertical movement on the landscape. As sea levels rise in the future, some TSWs will adapt and migrate landward in undeveloped low-lying areas where migration corridors...
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Coastal wetlands provide a suite of valuable benefits to people and wildlife, including important habitat, improved water quality, reduced flooding impacts, and protected coastlines. However, in the 21st century accelerated sea-level rise and coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. The future of coastal wetlands is uncertain, challenging coastal environmental managers to develop conservation strategies that will increase the resilience of these valuable ecosystems to change and preserve the benefits they provide. One strategy for preparing for the effects of sea-level rise is to ensure that there is space available for coastal wetlands to adapt by migration. In a...
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Coastal wetlands purify water, protect coastal communities from storms, sequester (store) carbon, and provide habitat for fish and wildlife. They are also vulnerable to climate change. In particular, changes in winter climate (warmer temperatures and fewer freeze events) may transform coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as mangrove forests are expected to expand their range and replace salt marshes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. As part of this project, researchers identified important thresholds for ecosystem changes and highlighted coastal areas in the southeastern U.S. (e.g., Texas, Louisiana,...
We evaluated changes in mangrove distribution and ecosystem properties in the southeastern United States under climate change using known climate-ecological relationships, recent climate data for the period 1981-2010, and future projected climate data for the period 2071-2100 under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs): the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, which correspond to intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, respectively. We quantified potential mangrove presence, mangrove relative abundance, coastal wetland vegetation height, and coastal wetland vegetation aboveground biomass under recent climatic conditions and under the two alternative future climate scenarios.
    map background search result map search result map Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Establishing a Foundation for Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Wetland Ecosystems Climate change and tidal wetland foundation species: mangroves, marches and salt flats Enhancing the Capacity of Coastal Wetlands to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Development Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests Cell data Point data Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries Mangrove distribution in the southeastern United States in 2021 Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Projected mangrove distribution and ecosystem properties in the southeastern United States under climate change When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States? Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Mangrove distribution in the southeastern United States in 2021 Establishing a Foundation for Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Coastal Wetland Ecosystems Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries Climate change and tidal wetland foundation species: mangroves, marches and salt flats Enhancing the Capacity of Coastal Wetlands to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Development Projected mangrove distribution and ecosystem properties in the southeastern United States under climate change When and where could rising seas cross thresholds for initiating wetland drowning across conterminous United States? Point data Cell data Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests