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To understand potential climate change impacts on ecosystems, water resources, and numerous other natural and managed resources, climate change data and projections must be downscaled from coarse global climate models to much finer resolutions and more applicable formats. This project conducted comparative analyses to better understand the accuracy and properties of these downscaled climate simulations and climate-change projections. Interpretation, guidance and evaluation, including measures of uncertainties, strengths and weaknesses of the different methodologies for each simulation, can enable potential users with the necessary information to select and apply the models.
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FY2015This effort complements a project, supported by the Joint Fire Science Program, to explore relations among cheatgrass-driven fire, climate, and sensitive-status birds across the Great Basin. With support from the NW and SW Climate Science Centers and the GB CESU, we aim to engage managers at local, state, and regional levels, and to involve both field-level and director-level personnel, during all stages of the proposed project. Our methods of engagement are intended to save managers time and decrease some of the uncertainty in planning and decision-making rather than to create additional pressures on managers time. We will conduct field visits, workshops, and interactive briefings to build trust and increase...
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The complex mountain and valley chains of the Southwest exert a strong influence on precipitation and wind patterns. Atmospheric rivers deliver some of the most extreme precipitation events to west-southwest-facing slopes of the mountains where strong gusty downslope winds can also spread wildfires. Climate change is making the southwest warmer and dryer resulting in more fire-prone vegetation and more frequent and extreme atmospheric rivers. Understanding this changing system is critical for managing water resources and wildfire in the region. This project will study how climate change is impacting precipitation and winds to create fire weather and drive fire spread on heavily vegetated slopes of coastal mountains....
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Natural climate variability can obscure or enhance long-term trends in experienced weather due to climate change. This can happen temporarily on timescales of a season to several years to a decade or two. Natural variability is poorly described and attributed to specific causes, contributing to uncertainty and misunderstandings about the nature of climate change that stakeholders and resource managers attempt to anticipate. There exists, therefore, a need to clarify the magnitude and causality of natural climate variability. This connection needs to be explained for locally-experienced weather and particularly for daily extreme events, whose seasonal behavior impacts both resources and imagination. Conversely, it...


    map background search result map search result map Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Engagement of Managers and Researchers on Relations among Cheatgrass-driven Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-status Birds across the Great Basin How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Engagement of Managers and Researchers on Relations among Cheatgrass-driven Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-status Birds across the Great Basin Analysis of Downscaled Climate Simulations and Projections and Their Use in Decision Making for the Southwest How do Atmospheric Rivers and Downslope Winds Affect Wildfire Risk and Water Resources in the Arid Southwest? Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World