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In the last decade, the annual area burned by wildfires in Alaska has doubled relative to any of the previous four decades, and the current frequency of fire is unprecedented over the past 1,200 years. Wildland fires are one of the main contributors to long-term changes in the structure and function of boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Although fire is a necessary component of regulating these ecosystems, it also poses a hazard to humans when uncontrolled. Currently, fire managers use the Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to perform calculations that can assist in field management of fires, but the only version of this tool that is available depends on network access, which poses a significant limitation for...
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Climate adaptation planning provides a framework for Tribes to exercise sovereignty over wild resources important for the subsistence way of life and economic and cultural activities that are being impacted by climate change. The climate adaptation planning process includes identifying key resources that are currently being impacted by climate change, or that may be impacted in the future, as well as identifying practical and strategic steps that can be taken to mitigate or adapt to the changing circumstances. Through a partnership among the Ketchikan Indian Community, the Metlakatla Indian Community, OceansAlaska, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks this project will support Tribal- and Alaska Native-led...
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In the Gulf of Alaska, streams will experience more dramatic low water events, interspersed with larger and potentially more frequent high flow events in the coming decades. Reduced stream flows are likely to occur due to diminished snowpack and seasonal droughts, while higher flow events are likely to occur with more frequent storms and rain-on-snow events. These changes are likely to influence the growth trajectories of juvenile salmon, such as coho salmon and chinook salmon, that live up to two years in freshwater before migrating to the ocean. Stream flows can influence juvenile salmon growth by modifying food availability, water clarity, temperature, and predation risk. This high-resolution study examines...
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Winter snowpack provides critical water resources for human populations and ecosystems throughout western North America. Increasing temperature and changing precipitation patterns are expected to alter the extent, amount, and persistence of snow in this region. Observations of snowpack and related hydroclimate variables are limited and sparse. This project will capitalize on recent advances in water balance and snow modeling as well as the development of comprehensive North American tree-ring datasets to produce spatially specific, annually resolved, and management relevant reconstructions of snow, streamflow, and warm season temperature. The project researchers will focus specifically on spatiotemporal reconstructions...
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Marine shellfish are an important diet and cultural resource for many Alaskans. Harmful algal blooms can produce toxins which accumulate in shellfish and can cause disease and death in consumers. Climate change is predicted to expand the timing and strength of harmful algal blooms which may affect food security for many Alaska Native Tribes and communities. Predicting when the shellfish are safe to consume is a critical component of establishing food security and adapting to climate change. Local traditional knowledge from Tlingit elders indicates that herring spawning events, which typically occur in April or May in Southeast Alaska, provide a warning signal for when to stop harvesting shellfish. The environmental...
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Scientific information can be used to help individuals, communities, and governments alike make more informed decisions. However, for people to become aware of the science that could inform their decisions and its relevance to their lives and decisions, it must be communicated effectively. Multiple obstacles prevent this from happening, including scientists’ lack of time and communication expertise, among other barriers. This pilot project is a novel internship program that pairs student interns with USGS scientists to assist with field-based natural or physical science research in Alaska, while also providing support to the teams of interns and scientists to generate creative and durable science communication...
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Since the early 1970s, the negative impacts of small aircraft activity on local wildlife and subsistence hunting have been an ongoing concern expressed by rural communities in Arctic Alaska. More specifically, these communities have expressed concern that aircraft activity from industry, commercial (sport) hunting, research, and tourism is disturbing caribou by altering their behavior and movement and, for rural communities who rely on the subsistence hunting of caribou for food and resources, this change in behavior has reduced hunting opportunities. Residents of rural communities and agencies who manage human-wildlife interactions have requested more involvement of local stakeholder groups in the process addressing...
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Understanding freshwater flow is frequently highlighted as a priority in land management planning and assessments. Changes in climate can impact streamflow through reduced snowpack and snowfall, earlier spring runoff, increased winter flow and flooding, and decreased summer flow. In Southeast Alaska, streamflow is expected to shift dramatically in response to changes in factors such as precipitation and air temperature. Understanding how streamflow might change is instrumental not only for predicting changes in plant distribution and soil moisture, but also for infrastructure planning. Culvert replacement, bridge design, hydropower development, water reservoir placement, and floodplain restoration planning all require...
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Assessments that incorporate areas from land-to-ocean, or “ridge-to-reef", are critical to examine how land-use practices are altering stream discharge and nearshore marine health and productivity. Stream systems in both Alaska and HawaiÊ»i are expected to experience changes in water quality associated with changing environmental conditions and increased human-use. Watershed systems throughout the Hawaiian Islands are currently experiencing impacts from climate change that affect groundwater recharge and surface runoff, erosion, and total streamflow, and cause degradation of nearshore marine habitats. This study can provide useful insight for both Alaska and HawaiÊ»i by providing resources on how patterns in stream...
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Alaska is an ecologically, commercially, and recreationally diverse state, providing value to people and terrestrial and aquatic species alike. Presently, Alaska is experiencing climatic change faster than any other area of the United States, but across the state, comprehensive environmental monitoring is logistically difficult and expensive. For instance, only about 1% of U.S Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages are in Alaska, and only about 50% of those gages measure water temperature, an important climate change indicator. In this study, predictive models are being used to map stream temperatures under current and future climate scenarios across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins (YKRB) at the stream reach...
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Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time, therefore advance understanding of a) the dynamics of and responses to future wildfire, and b)management planning for and adaptation to those projected changes. Through existing research-management collaborations, the Alaska CASC has iteratively refined its approach to actionable (both by fire managers and agency planners)...
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Berries are a crucial nutritional and cultural resource to communities and ecosystems in boreal, subarctic and arctic areas; however, berry abundance and the timing of the berry lifecycle is becoming more variable and unpredictable due to climate change. Climate adaptation plans across the state of Alaska identify changes in berry timing and availability as primary concerns and point to the need for increased monitoring and research on how climate change is influencing berries. While there is a large body of work on plants that produce berries, much of the information is not accessible to those who need it most: land managers and communities planning for an uncertain future. This project will address this critical...
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Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety. As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding...
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With increasing sea surface temperatures due to climate change, harmful algal blooms in Alaska marine waters are becoming more severe, threatening food security and public health by reducing availability and safety of shellfish and other marine food resources. Paralytic shellfish poisoning, a neurotoxin primarily produced by marine phytoplankton Alexandrium, is the most severe and pervasive biotoxin problem in Alaska and is regularly detected in shellfish at levels unsafe for human consumption. Illness and deaths have been attributed to paralytic shellfish poisoning in Alaska, yet there is still limited capacity for testing of harmful algal blooms for culturally important subsistence resources. Increasingly,...
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Ecosystems spanning the zones from “ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean” are home to relatively high levels of biodiversity; serve as conduits of nutrients to sensitive coastal environments; and are culturally and economically important to local communities. These systems are smaller and have unique geological and streamflow properties compared to more typical river systems and, because of this, it is not clear how they will respond to shifting climatic patterns. Both Hawaiian ridge-to-reef and Alaskan icefield-to-ocean ecosystems face the potential of climate-driven changes in extreme flow events, such as floods and droughts, that could dramatically change how critical nutrients are retained and transported....
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Snow avalanches alter mountain environments and have both beneficial and harmful effects on wildlife. Avalanches can benefit wildlife by creating open areas for grazing but can also be deadly when animals are buried in avalanche debris. Avalanches pose high risks to mountain goats because they inhabit rugged and steep terrain, but the actual impacts of avalanches on mountain goats remain unknown.  The goal of this project is to understand how avalanches impact mountain goat habitat and mortality in the Coast Mountains of southeast Alaska. The research team will use long-term data collected from 434 mountain goats outfitted with GPS collars from 2005 to 2022 and avalanche hazard maps to understand how mountain...
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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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Water temperatures affect the distribution, growth potential, and productivity of stream fishes that are targeted in subsistence, sport, and commercial fisheries across Alaska, making stream and lake temperature data critical for managing freshwater resources. Evaluating the variation in temperatures across Alaska will improve understanding of impacts of both climate change and development on freshwater habitats. However, collection and dissemination of water temperature data is an ongoing challenge across Alaska. To address this challenge, the research team will increase cooperation and coordination among data collectors in Interior Alaska by conducting an in-person stream temperature trainingand adapting the...
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Coastal flooding and erosion caused by storms and sea-level rise threaten infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. Though the problem is well known, there are few tools that can assess local vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Even fewer tools can be customized with specific community information to support local adaptation planning. The main goal of this project is to use the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) platform to co-produce customized local flood hazard maps and online tools to support the development of culturally-appropriate and cost-efficient adaptation strategies in Alaska. The project team will work with federal, state, and local community representatives to understand...
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Agriculture in Alaska is climate-limited. Factors such as low heat energy, short growing seasons, and cold winters prevent the survival of many crops. While considerable research has gone into assessing how to overcome some of these limitations, results suggest that climate change is already altering the equation, and will likely continue to do so. Some research suggests crop production for some varieties might advance northward in the state, leading to increases in yields and new varieties becoming viable. However, it’s also projected that water stress may become an increasing challenge facing farmers. Further, some crops, such as the burgeoning peony market, are dependent on Alaska’s cool climate and late summer...
map background search result map search result map Projecting Future Streamflow in Southeast Alaska Supporting Local Agricultural Planning and Adaptation in Alaska Water Resource Relevant Hydroclimatic Reconstructions for Western North America State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Building Capacity for Managing Climate Change Strategies Through Tribal Monitoring of Harmful Algal Toxins in Subsistence Harvested Shellfish Alaska’s Berry Future: Planning for Changing Resources in an Altered Climate Combining Local Traditional Knowledge and Machine Learning to Predict the Future Safety of Alaskan Shellfish Harvests in a Changing Climate Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Coral Response to Land-to-Ocean Freshwater Flux: A Ridge-to-Reef Perspective Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Studying the Influence of Streamflow Variability on Fish Populations to Understand Nutrient Transport in Hawaiian and Alaskan Streams in a Changing Climate Addressing Small Aircraft Noise Conflicts with Subsistence Hunting in Alaska Parks and Preserves – A Structured Decision Making Approach A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Enhancing Water Temperature Monitoring Efforts across Alaska through Collaborative Leveraging of a Statewide Database Building Tribal Capacity to Adapt and Respond to Climate Change in Southern Southeast Alaska Evaluating How Snow Avalanches Impact Mountain Goat Populations in Southeast Alaska Alaska's Changing Habitats: A Multi-System Approach for Understanding Climate Impacts in High Latitude Regions Coral Response to Land-to-Ocean Freshwater Flux: A Ridge-to-Reef Perspective Building Tribal Capacity to Adapt and Respond to Climate Change in Southern Southeast Alaska Evaluating How Snow Avalanches Impact Mountain Goat Populations in Southeast Alaska Projecting Future Streamflow in Southeast Alaska Addressing Small Aircraft Noise Conflicts with Subsistence Hunting in Alaska Parks and Preserves – A Structured Decision Making Approach The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Supporting Local Agricultural Planning and Adaptation in Alaska Building Capacity for Managing Climate Change Strategies Through Tribal Monitoring of Harmful Algal Toxins in Subsistence Harvested Shellfish Alaska’s Berry Future: Planning for Changing Resources in an Altered Climate Combining Local Traditional Knowledge and Machine Learning to Predict the Future Safety of Alaskan Shellfish Harvests in a Changing Climate Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Enhancing Water Temperature Monitoring Efforts across Alaska through Collaborative Leveraging of a Statewide Database Alaska's Changing Habitats: A Multi-System Approach for Understanding Climate Impacts in High Latitude Regions Studying the Influence of Streamflow Variability on Fish Populations to Understand Nutrient Transport in Hawaiian and Alaskan Streams in a Changing Climate Water Resource Relevant Hydroclimatic Reconstructions for Western North America State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country