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Multi-Decadal Simulation of Marsh Topography Under Sea Level Rise and Episodic Sediment Loads Abstract Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service Chapter 12: Bird communities: effects of fragmentation, disturbance, and sea level rise on population viability [Excerpt from Introduction] "The San Francisco Bay Estuary supports a large and diverse bird community. More than 50% of most Pacific flyway diving duck populations are found in the Estuary during the winter months (Trost 2002; U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2002). San Francisco Bay has been designated as a site of international importance for shorebirds (Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network), supporting millions of individuals (Morrison et al. 2001; Takekawa et al. 2001; Warnock et al. 2002), including species that use tidal marsh habitats. In total, the Bay’s tidal marshes support at least 113 bird species that represent 31 families (Takekawa et al., in press)..." Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Habitat Fragmentation, Human Disturbance, National CASC, Population Viability, Restoration Implications, All tags... Science Tools For Managers, Sea Level Rise, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, State of the Science, Synthesis and Future Directions, Tidal Marsh Bird Community, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, Fewer tags Final Report: Science to Inform the Management of Mangrove Ecosystems Undergoing Sea Level Rise at Ding Darling National Wildlife Refuge, Sanibel Island, Florida J.N. “Ding” Darling National Wildlife Refuge (DDNWR) is located on Sanibel Island along the southwestern coast of Florida, USA. Sanibel Island is heavily developed, but DDNWR provides protection for a large mangrove area that supports biodiversity and recreational opportunity. However, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) eutrophication attributed to agriculture discharge along the Caloosahatchee River has affected the area’s aquatic habitat with algal blooms and may be causing untimely degradation of Sanibel’s mangrove forests. We launched a series of studies to understand how additional nutrient loading to the levels expected in the future might affect DDNWR’s mangrove resource. We experimentally fertilized selected... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Northwest CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, All tags... Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Mangrove Species’ Response to Sea-Level Rise Across Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia Mangrove forests are likely vulnerable to accelerating sea-level rise; however, we lack the tools necessary to understand their future resilience. On the Pacific island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, mangroves are habitat to endangered species and provide critical ecosystem services that support local communities. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for mangroves that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation. The modeling framework was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from thirty 1-meter-deep soil cores dated with lead-210, more than 300 forest inventory plots, water-level monitoring, and differential... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Testing the interactive effects of flooding and salinity on tidal marsh plant productivity Tidal wetlands support plant communities that facilitate carbon storage, accrete soil, and provide habitat for terrestrial and aquatic species. Climate change is likely to alter estuaries through sea-level rise and changing precipitation patterns, although the ecological responses are uncertain. We were interested in plant responses to physiological stress induced by elevated water salinity and flooding conditions, which may be more prevalent under climate change. . We used a greenhouse experiment and factorial flooding (1, 12, 24, and 48 % time) and salinity (0, 5, 15, 30 PSU) treatments to evaluate the productivity responses of three emergent herbaceous species (Carex lyngbyei, Triglochin maritima, and Argentina... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Rising Tides: Assessing Habitat Vulnerability for an Endangered Salt Marsh-Dependent Species with Sea-Level Rise Abstract (from SpringerLink): Salt marsh-dependent species are vulnerable to impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Site-specific differences in ecogeomorphic processes result in different SLR vulnerabilities. SLR impacts to Ridgway’s rail (Rallus obsoletus) of Southern California (SC) and San Francisco Bay (SF), U.S.A. could foreshadow SLR effects on other coastal endemic species. Salt marsh vulnerabilities to SLR were forecasted across 14 study sites using the Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience, which accounts for changes in above and belowground marsh processes. Changes in suitable habitat for rail were projected with MaxEnt. Under a high (166 cm/100 yr) SLR scenario, current extent of suitable habitat... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Incorporation of uncertainty to improve projections of tidal wetland elevation and carbon accumulation with sea-level rise Understanding the rates and patterns of tidal wetland elevation changes relative to sea-level is essential for understanding the extent of potential wetland loss over the coming years. Using an enhanced and more flexible modeling framework of an ecosystem model (WARMER-2), we explored sea-level rise (SLR) impacts on wetland elevations and carbon sequestration rates through 2100 by considering plant community transitions, salinity effects on productivity, and changes in sediment availability. We incorporated local experimental results for plant productivity relative to inundation and salinity into a species transition model, as well as site-level estimates of organic matter decomposition. The revised modeling framework... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation