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Abstract (from http://jcom.sissa.it/archive/15/01/JCOM_1501_2016_A01): Whereas the evolution of snow cover across forested mountain watersheds is difficult to predict or model accurately, the presence or absence of snow cover is easily observable and these observations contribute to improved snow models. We engaged citizen scientists to collect observations of the timing of distributed snow disappearance over three snow seasons across the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. . The primary goal of the project was to build a more spatially robust dataset documenting the influence of forest cover on the timing of snow disappearance, and public outreach was a secondary goal. Each year's effort utilized a different strategy, building...
The Fourth Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference was held in Portland, Oregon on September 5-6, 2013. The Conference is an annual forum for researchers and practitioners to convene and exchange scientific results, challenges, and solutions related to the effects of climate on people, natural resources, and infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest. The Conference attracts a wide range of participants including policy- and decision-makers, resource managers, public agency staff, non-governmental organization personnel, and scientists. As such, the Conference emphasizes oral presentations that are comprehensible to a wide audience and on topics of broad interest and aims to be the best opportunity to stimulate...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided...
Abstract (from http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.3955/046.089.0305): It is hypothesized that climate impacts forest mosaics through dynamic ecological processes such as wildfires. However, climate-fire research has primarily focused on understanding drivers of fire frequency and area burned, largely due to scale mismatches and limited data availability. Recent datasets, however, allow for the investigation of climate influences on ecological patch metrics across broad regions independent of area burned and at finer scale. One area of particular interest is the distribution of fire refugia within wildfire perimeters. Although much recent research emphasis has been placed on high-severity patches within wildfires,...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112716308532): Across the western United States, the three primary drivers of tree mortality and carbon balance are bark beetles, timber harvest, and wildfire. While these agents of forest change frequently overlap, uncertainty remains regarding their interactions and influence on specific subsequent fire effects such as change in canopy cover. Acquisition of pre- and post-fire Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data on the 2012 Pole Creek Fire in central Oregon provided an opportunity to isolate and quantify fire effects coincident with specific agents of change. This study characterizes the influence of pre-fire mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus...
Abstract (from http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94/meta): High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance. We quantified mean annual tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest from 2003–2012 for each state in this region. We estimated tree mortality from fires and beetles using tree aboveground carbon (AGC) stock and disturbance data sets derived largely from remote sensing. We...
We used a first-of-its-kind comprehensive scenario approach to evaluate both the vertical and horizontal response of tidal wetlands to projected changes in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) across 14 estuaries along the Pacific coast of the continental United States. Throughout the U.S. Pacific region, we found that tidal wetlands are highly vulnerable to end-of-century submergence, with resulting extensive loss of habitat. Using higher-range SLR scenarios, all high and middle marsh habitats were lost, with 83% of current tidal wetlands transitioning to unvegetated habitats by 2110. The wetland area lost was greater in California and Oregon (100%) but still severe in Washington, with 68% submerged by the end of the...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/eap.1396/full): Extensive mortality of whitebark pine, beginning in the early to mid-2000s, occurred in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) of the western US, primarily from mountain pine beetle but also from other threats such as white pine blister rust. The climatic drivers of this recent mortality and the potential for future whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetle are not well understood, yet are important considerations in whether to list whitebark pine as a threatened or endangered species. We sought to increase the understanding of climate influences on mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests, which are less well understood...
Fish and wildlife are at the heart of Washington State’s rich ecological, economic, and cultural heritage. The incredible diversity of species and the habitats that sustain them helps to define Washington’s distinct character and in part reflects the long standing conservation ethic of its citizens – one that has endured the challenges posed by a growing human population, increasing demands for land, water, and other natural resources, and now the very real threat of climate change. A growing body of scientific evidence indicates that climate change is already having a significant impact on natural systems across the region, and further changes are likely in the coming decades (CIG 2009; Mote and Salathé 2010)....
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0167.1): Drought indices are often used for monitoring interannual variability in macroscale hydrology. However, the diversity of drought indices raises several issues: 1) which indices perform best and where; 2) does the incorporation of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in indices strengthen relationships, and how sensitive is the choice of PET methods to such results; 3) what additional value is added by using higher-spatial-resolution gridded climate layers; and 4) how have observed relationships changed through time. Standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), Palmer drought severity index,...
Abstract (from http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084009/meta): Record low snowpack conditions were observed at Snow Telemetry stations in the Cascades Mountains, USA during the winters of 2014 and 2015. We tested the hypothesis that these winters are analogs for the temperature sensitivity of Cascades snowpacks. In the Oregon Cascades, the 2014 and 2015 winter air temperature anomalies were approximately +2 °C and +4 °C above the climatological mean. We used a spatially distributed snowpack energy balance model to simulate the sensitivity of multiple snowpack metrics to a +2 °C and +4 °C warming and compared our modeled sensitivities to observed values during 2014 and 2015. We found that for...
When the Earth experiences changes in climate, wildlife respond by moving – species adjust their ranges to stay within climatically suitable habitat, moving out of areas that become too hot or otherwise inhospitable, and moving into areas that become newly hospitable. However, climate change is now proceeding so quickly that it is becoming difficult for species to move fast enough to keep pace. In addition, today’s landscapes feature significant barriers to wildlife movement due to human land use (e.g., highways, cities, agriculture). Such is the case in the region surrounding the border of Washington state, USA, and British Columbia, Canada, where increasing development pressure and limited coordination of land...
The Northwest Climate Conference (formerly the Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference) annually brings together more over 250 participants to share scientific results, challenges, and solutions related to the impacts of climate on people, natural resources, and infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest region. The 2016 conference was held November 14 – 16, 2016 in Stevenson, Washington at the Skamania Resort Conference Center. The conference includes a broad range of climate-related topics from all sub-regions of the Northwest, attracting participants from Alaska to California and from the coast to the interior West. It provides a forum for presenting emerging policy and management goals, objectives, and information...
Climate responses of sagebrush are needed to inform land managers of the stability and restoration of sagebrush ecosystems, which are an important but threatened habitat type. We evaluated climate responses of sagebrush using two approaches: (1) experimental manipulations of temperature and precipitation for natural plants in the field, and (2) assessment of how climate adaptation and weather have affected sagebrush seeding efforts on nearly 25 large-scale sagebrush seeding projects done over the past several decades. Experimental warming increased growth of sagebrush in high-elevation meadows in the Teton Mountains, but had marginal or no effect at lower elevations sites (near Twin Falls and Boise, Idaho, respectively)....
This short-term project responded to concerns about the disappearance of culturally important plants in traditional gathering areas expressed by elders of the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe (PGST) (Olympic Peninsula, WA), both currently and in response to continuing climate change. A formal Memorandum of Understanding was developed between Oregon State University and the PGST to guide this culturally sensitive research. We recommend this formal approach to researchers considering tribal partnerships in order to ensure expectations of all parties are clearly outlined. During formal interviews and informal conversation, PGST elders mentioned 37 plants, of which eight terrestrial species and a group of marine taxa were...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425716302619): Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) rely on near-surface groundwater. These systems are receiving more attention with rising air temperature, prolonged drought, and where groundwater pumping captures natural groundwater discharge for anthropogenic use. Phreatophyte shrublands, meadows, and riparian areas are GDEs that provide critical habitat for many sensitive species, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. While GDEs are vital for ecosystem services and function, their long-term (i.e. ~ 30 years) spatial and temporal variability is poorly understood with respect to local and regional scale climate, groundwater, and...
Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing natural resource management. The disruptions it is causing require that we change how we consider and implement conservation and resource management in order to ensure the future of habitats, species, and human communities, whether that means adopting new management actions or adjusting the ways in which existing actions are implemented. However, practitioners often struggle with how to identify and prioritize specific climate adaptation actions, which are taken to either increase/enhance resilience or decrease vulnerability in a changing climate. Management actions may have a higher probability of being successful if they are informed by available scientific...
Connectivity of river networks and the movements among habitats can be critical for the life history of many fish species, and understanding of the patterns of movement is central to managing populations, communities, and the landscapes they use. We combined passive integrated transponder tagging over 4 years and strontium isotopes in otoliths to demonstrate that 25% of the mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) sampled moved between the Methow and Columbia rivers, Washington, USA. Seasonal migrations downstream from the Methow River to the Columbia River to overwinter occurred in autumn and upstream movements in the spring. We observed migration was common during the first year of life, with migrants being...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119011705.ch10/summary): This chapter discusses an approach that uses MC1 results to create climate-informed state-and-transition simulation model (cSTSMs) in two contrasting landscapes: dry forests in central Oregon and wet forests in western Washington. The studies presented here examine trends in different socioecological values under different climate and management assumptions using a dynamic global vegetation model/STSM approach. The authors found that simulated management actions did not prevent climate-induced vegetation change. Simulated management did in some cases promote desired forest structures and increase resilience to climate change....
Abstract: Observed changes in climate of the U.S. Pacific Northwest since the early twentieth century were examined using four different datasets. Annual mean temperature increased by approximately 0.6°–0.8°C from 1901 to 2012, with corroborating indicators including a lengthened freeze-free season, increased temperature of the coldest night of the year, and increased growing-season potential evapotranspiration. Seasonal temperature trends over shorter time scales (<50 yr) were variable. Despite increased warming rates in most seasons over the last half century, nonsignificant cooling was observed during spring from 1980 to 2012. Observations show a long-term increase in spring precipitation; however, decreased...