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To meet the climate change planning and adaptation needs of Alaska managers and decision makers, I developed a set of statewide summaries of available climate change projections that can be further subset using GIS techniques for requests by management unit, watershed, or other location. This facilitates the development of tailored climate futures for decision makers’ regional or subregional management context. This file describes the source data and summaries for purposes of technical /scientific documentation. The methods and presentation for these datasets were adapted from products in previous USGS-approved IP products for the AKCASC Building Resilience Today project (e.g, Community of Kotlik et al. 2019)....
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This collection includes several datasets related to the fraction of precipitation days that are snowy (vs. rainy) and the amount of precipitation that likely falls as snow across Alaska. Both historical and future projections are included. Files include: Climatological summaries of downscaled historical and projected decadal average monthly snowfall equivalent ("SWE", in millimeters), the ratio of snowfall equivalent to precipitation, and future change in snowfall for October to March at 771 meter spatial resolution across the state of Alaska. Historical downscaled estimates of decadal average monthly snow-day fraction ("fs", units = percent probability from 1 to 100) for each month of the decades from 1900 through...
Abstract (from AMS): Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from One Earth): Novel forms of drought are emerging globally, due to climate change, shifting teleconnection patterns, expanding human water use, and a history of human influence on the environment that increases the probability of transformational ecological impacts. These costly ecological impacts cascade to human communities, and understanding this changing drought landscape is one of today’s grand challenges. By using a modified horizon-scanning approach that integrated scientists, managers, and decision-makers, we identified the emerging issues in ecological drought that represent key challenges to timely and effective responses. Here we review the themes that most urgently need attention, including...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Abundant scientific research has characterized the relationships between climate and fire in ecosystems of the United States, and there is substantial evidence that the role of fire in ecosystems is likely to change with a changing climate. Changing fire patterns pose numerous natural resource management challenges and decision makers in natural-resource management increasingly require information about potential future changes in fire regimes to effectively prepare for and adapt to climate change impacts. An effective forward-looking fire science synthesis is urgently required to reflect the changing dimensions of human fire management, recognizing that fire causes, effects, impacts, and management are all interrelated...
Abstract (from Water): Climatically driven changes in snow characteristics (snowfall, snowpack, and snowmelt) will affect hydrologic and ecological systems in Alaska over the coming century, yet there exist no projections of downscaled future snow pack metrics for the state of Alaska. We updated historical and projected snow day fraction (PSF, the fraction of days with precipitation falling as snow) from McAfee et al. We developed modeled snowfall equivalent (SFE) derived from the product of snow-day fraction (PSF) and existing gridded precipitation for Alaska from Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP). We validated the assumption that modeled SFE approximates historical decadally averaged snow...
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This archive contains two datasets. Both cover the northwestern United States and part of southern British Columbia (N of about 38 degrees N and W of about 105 degrees W) at 1/16th (0.0625) degree resolution. Climate and hydrologic variables (21 total) in each are as follows: precipitation, temperature (avg./max./min.), outgoing longwave radiation, incoming shortwave radiation, relative humidity, vapor pressure deficit, evapotranspiration, runoff, baseflow, soil moisture (3-layers), snow water equivalent, snow depth, and potential evapotranspiration (5 vegetation references). The first dataset, "Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Dynamically Downscaled Data", contains daily dynamically downscaled climate...
    map background search result map search result map Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Datasets Collection: Historical and Projected Estimates of Snow Fraction and and the Amount of Precipitation that Likely Falls as Snow Across Alaska Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Western US Hydroclimate Scenarios Project Datasets Collection: Historical and Projected Estimates of Snow Fraction and and the Amount of Precipitation that Likely Falls as Snow Across Alaska Future of Fire: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate