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Policy-relevant flood risk modeling must capture interactions between physical and social processes to accurately project impacts from scenarios of sea level rise and inland flooding due to climate change. Here we simultaneously model urban growth, flood hazard change, and adaptive response using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) version 3 framework (Sanchez et al., 2023). FUTURES is an open source urban growth model designed to address the regional-scale ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization; it is one of the few land change models that explicitly captures the spatial structure of development in response to user-specified scenarios. We present probabilistic land change projections...
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We simulated future patterns of urban growth using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES; Meentemeyer et al., 2013) version 2 framework. FUTURES is an open source urban growth model designed to address the regional-scale ecological and environmental impacts of urbanization; it is one of the few land change models that explicitly captures the spatial structure of development in response to user-specified scenarios. We present probabilistic land change projections that predict urban growth under a Status Quo scenarios of growth. We computed each scenario for 50 stochastic iterations from 2020 through 2100 at annual time steps.
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Urban growth and climate change together complicate planning efforts meant to adapt to increasingly scarce water supplies. Several studies have shown the impacts of urban planning and climate change separately, but little attention has been given to their combined impact on long-term urban water demand forecasting. Here we coupled land and climate change projections with empirically-derived coefficient estimates of urban water use (sum of public supply, industrial, and domestic use) to forecast water demand under scenarios of future population densities and climate warming. We simulated two scenarios of urban growth from 2012 to 2065 using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) framework. FUTURES...
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Integrated land- and water-use planning strategies are gaining attention as means to inform consideration of more water-efficient urbanization patterns in response to uncertain water availability. We coupled climate and land change projections with empirically-derived coefficient estimates of development-related water demand to project water demand under future conditions of environmental change. Development-related water demand, used to characterize the water footprint of urbanization, is classified as the combined use of public water supply, domestic self-supply and industrial self-supply. We simulated two scenarios of urban growth from 2012 to 2065 using the FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES)...
    map background search result map search result map Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia Land-use, Population, Water-Use and Climate Change Scenarios FUTURES v2: Status Quo Projections of Future Patterns of Urbanization Across the Conterminous United States from 2020 to 2100 FUTURES v3: Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization in Response to Sea Level Rise and Frequent Flooding Across the Southeast United States from 2020 to 2100 Land-use, Population, Water-Use and Climate Change Scenarios Land-use and water demand projections (2012 to 2065) under different scenarios of environmental change for North Carolina, South Carolina, and coastal Georgia FUTURES v3: Scenarios of Future Patterns of Urbanization in Response to Sea Level Rise and Frequent Flooding Across the Southeast United States from 2020 to 2100 FUTURES v2: Status Quo Projections of Future Patterns of Urbanization Across the Conterminous United States from 2020 to 2100